The Art of Data Science

To flourish in the new data-intensive environment of 21st century science, we need to evolve new skills. These can be expressed in terms of the systemized framework that formed the basis of mediaeval education - the trivium (logic, grammar, and rhetoric) and quadrivium (arithmetic, geometry, music, and astronomy). However, rather than focusing on number, data is the new keystone. We need to understand what rules it obeys, how it is symbolized and communicated and what its relationship to physical space and time is. In this paper, we will review this understanding in terms of the technologies and processes that it requires. We contend that, at least, an appreciation of all these aspects is crucial to enable us to extract scientific information and knowledge from the data sets which threaten to engulf and overwhelm us.Comment: 12 pages, invited talk at Astrostatistics and Data Mining in Large Astronomical Databases workshop, La Palma, Spain, 30 May - 3 June 2011, to appear in Springer Series on Astrostatistic

Infant Safety during and after Maternal Valacyclovir Therapy in Conjunction with Antiretroviral HIV-1 Prophylaxis in a Randomized Clinical Trial

<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Maternal administration of the acyclovir prodrug valacyclovir is compatible with pregnancy and breastfeeding. However, the safety profile of prolonged infant and maternal exposure to acyclovir in the context of antiretrovirals (ARVs) for prevention of mother-to-child HIV-1 transmission (PMTCT) has not been described.</p> <h3>Methods</h3><p>Pregnant Kenyan women co-infected with HIV-1/HSV-2 with CD4 counts > 250 cells/mm³ were enrolled at 34 weeks gestation and randomized to twice daily 500 mg valacyclovir or placebo until 12 months postpartum. Women received zidovudine from 28 weeks gestation and single dose nevirapine was given to women and infants at the time of delivery for PMTCT. Infant blood was collected at 6 weeks for creatinine and ALT. Breast milk specimens were collected at 2 weeks postpartum from 71 women in the valacyclovir arm; acyclovir levels were determined for a random sample of 44 (62%) specimens. Fisher’s Exact and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests were used for analysis.</p> <h3>Results</h3><p>One hundred forty-eight women were randomized and 146 mother-infant pairs were followed postpartum. PMTCT ARVs were administered to 98% of infants and all mothers. Valacyclovir was not associated with infant or maternal toxicities or adverse events, and no congenital malformations were observed. Infant creatinine levels were all normal (< 0.83 mg/dl) and median creatinine (median 0.50 mg/dl) and infant growth did not differ between study arms. Acyclovir was detected in 35 (80%) of 44 breast milk samples collected at 2 weeks postpartum. Median and maximum acyclovir levels were 2.62 and 10.15 mg/ml, respectively (interquartile range 0.6–4.19).</p> <h3>Conclusions</h3><p>Exposure to PMTCT ARVs and acyclovir after maternal administration of valacyclovir during pregnancy and postpartum to women co-infected with HIV-1/HSV-2 was not associated with an increase in infant or maternal toxicities or adverse events.</p> <h3>Trial Registration</h3><p>ClinicalTrials.gov <a href="http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00530777">NCT00530777</a></p> </div

Avoiding Dangerous Missense: Thermophiles Display Especially Low Mutation Rates

Rates of spontaneous mutation have been estimated under optimal growth conditions for a variety of DNA-based microbes, including viruses, bacteria, and eukaryotes. When expressed as genomic mutation rates, most of the values were in the vicinity of 0.003–0.004 with a range of less than two-fold. Because the genome sizes varied by roughly 104-fold, the mutation rates per average base pair varied inversely by a similar factor. Even though the commonality of the observed genomic rates remains unexplained, it implies that mutation rates in unstressed microbes reach values that can be finely tuned by evolution. An insight originating in the 1920s and maturing in the 1960s proposed that the genomic mutation rate would reflect a balance between the deleterious effect of the average mutation and the cost of further reducing the mutation rate. If this view is correct, then increasing the deleterious impact of the average mutation should be countered by reducing the genomic mutation rate. It is a common observation that many neutral or nearly neutral mutations become strongly deleterious at higher temperatures, in which case they are called temperature-sensitive mutations. Recently, the kinds and rates of spontaneous mutations were described for two microbial thermophiles, a bacterium and an archaeon. Using an updated method to extrapolate from mutation-reporter genes to whole genomes reveals that the rate of base substitutions is substantially lower in these two thermophiles than in mesophiles. This result provides the first experimental support for the concept of an evolved balance between the total genomic impact of mutations and the cost of further reducing the basal mutation rate

Parameter identification problems in the modelling of cell motility

We present a novel parameter identification algorithm for the estimation of parameters in models of cell motility using imaging data of migrating cells. Two alternative formulations of the objective functional that measures the difference between the computed and observed data are proposed and the parameter identification problem is formulated as a minimisation problem of nonlinear least squares type. A Levenberg–Marquardt based optimisation method is applied to the solution of the minimisation problem and the details of the implementation are discussed. A number of numerical experiments are presented which illustrate the robustness of the algorithm to parameter identification in the presence of large deformations and noisy data and parameter identification in three dimensional models of cell motility. An application to experimental data is also presented in which we seek to identify parameters in a model for the monopolar growth of fission yeast cells using experimental imaging data. Our numerical tests allow us to compare the method with the two different formulations of the objective functional and we conclude that the results with both objective functionals seem to agree

Forest Plant and Bird Communities in the Lau Group, Fiji

We examined species composition of forest and bird communities in relation to environmental and human disturbance gradients on Lakeba (55.9 km²), Nayau (18.4 km²), and Aiwa Levu (1.2 km²), islands in the Lau Group of Fiji, West Polynesia. The unique avifauna of West Polynesia (Fiji, Tonga, Samoa) has been subjected to prehistoric human-caused extinctions but little was previously known about this topic in the Lau Group. We expected that the degree of human disturbance would be a strong determinant of tree species composition and habitat quality for surviving landbirds, while island area would be unrelated to bird diversity.All trees > 5 cm diameter were measured and identified in 23 forest plots of 500 m² each. We recognized four forest species assemblages differentiated by composition and structure: coastal forest, dominated by widely distributed species, and three forest types with differences related more to disturbance history (stages of secondary succession following clearing or selective logging) than to environmental gradients (elevation, slope, rockiness). Our point counts (73 locations in 1 or 2 seasons) recorded 18 of the 24 species of landbirds that exist on the three islands. The relative abundance and species richness of birds were greatest in the forested habitats least disturbed by people. These differences were due mostly to increased numbers of columbid frugivores and passerine insectivores in forests on Lakeba and Aiwa Levu. Considering only forested habitats, the relative abundance and species richness of birds were greater on the small but completely forested (and uninhabited) island of Aiwa Levu than on the much larger island of Lakeba.Forest disturbance history is more important than island area in structuring both tree and landbird communities on remote Pacific islands. Even very small islands may be suitable for conservation reserves if they are protected from human disturbance

Astrobiological Complexity with Probabilistic Cellular Automata

Search for extraterrestrial life and intelligence constitutes one of the major endeavors in science, but has yet been quantitatively modeled only rarely and in a cursory and superficial fashion. We argue that probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) represent the best quantitative framework for modeling astrobiological history of the Milky Way and its Galactic Habitable Zone. The relevant astrobiological parameters are to be modeled as the elements of the input probability matrix for the PCA kernel. With the underlying simplicity of the cellular automata constructs, this approach enables a quick analysis of large and ambiguous input parameters' space. We perform a simple clustering analysis of typical astrobiological histories and discuss the relevant boundary conditions of practical importance for planning and guiding actual empirical astrobiological and SETI projects. In addition to showing how the present framework is adaptable to more complex situations and updated observational databases from current and near-future space missions, we demonstrate how numerical results could offer a cautious rationale for continuation of practical SETI searches.Comment: 37 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables; added journal reference belo

A multi-metric approach to investigate the effects of weather conditions on the demographic of a terrestrial mammal, the European badger (Meles meles)

Models capturing the full effects of weather conditions on animal populations are scarce. Here we decompose yearly temperature and rainfall into mean trends, yearly amplitude of change and residual variation, using daily records. We establish from multi-model inference procedures, based on 1125 life histories (from 1987 to 2008), that European badger (Meles meles) annual mortality and recruitment rates respond to changes in mean trends and to variability in proximate weather components. Variation in mean rainfall was by far the most influential predictor in our analysis. Juvenile survival and recruitment rates were highest at intermediate levels of mean rainfall, whereas low adult survival rates were associated with only the driest, and not the wettest, years. Both juvenile and adult survival rates also exhibited a range of tolerance for residual standard deviation around daily predicted temperature values, beyond which survival rates declined. Life-history parameters, annual routines and adaptive behavioural responses, which define the badgers’ climatic niche, thus appear to be predicated upon a bounded range of climatic conditions, which support optimal survival and recruitment dynamics. That variability in weather conditions is influential, in combination with mean climatic trends, on the vital rates of a generalist, wide ranging and K-selected medium-sized carnivore, has major implications for evolutionary ecology and conservation

From bit to it: How a complex metabolic network transforms information into living matter

Organisms live and die by the amount of information they acquire about their environment. The systems analysis of complex metabolic networks allows us to ask how such information translates into fitness. A metabolic network transforms nutrients into biomass. The better it uses information on available nutrient availability, the faster it will allow a cell to divide. I here use metabolic flux balance analysis to show that the accuracy I (in bits) with which a yeast cell can sense a limiting nutrient's availability relates logarithmically to fitness as indicated by biomass yield and cell division rate. For microbes like yeast, natural selection can resolve fitness differences of genetic variants smaller than 10-6, meaning that cells would need to estimate nutrient concentrations to very high accuracy (greater than 22 bits) to ensure optimal growth. I argue that such accuracies are not achievable in practice. Natural selection may thus face fundamental limitations in maximizing the information processing capacity of cells. The analysis of metabolic networks opens a door to understanding cellular biology from a quantitative, information-theoretic perspective