The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Solution structure of a repeated unit of the ABA-1 nematode polyprotein allergen of ascaris reveals a novel fold and two discrete lipid-binding sites

Parasitic nematode worms cause serious health problems in humans and other animals. They can induce allergic-type immune responses, which can be harmful but may at the same time protect against the infections. Allergens are proteins that trigger allergic reactions and these parasites produce a type that is confined to nematodes, the nematode polyprotein allergens (NPAs). These are synthesized as large precursor proteins comprising repeating units of similar amino acid sequence that are subsequently cleaved into multiple copies of the allergen protein. NPAs bind small lipids such as fatty acids and retinol (Vitamin A) and probably transport these sensitive and insoluble compounds between the tissues of the worms. Nematodes cannot synthesize these lipids, so NPAs may also be crucial for extracting nutrients from their hosts. They may also be involved in altering immune responses by controlling the lipids by which the immune and inflammatory cells communicate. We describe the molecular structure of one unit of an NPA, the well-known ABA-1 allergen of Ascaris and find its structure to be of a type not previously found for lipid-binding proteins, and we describe the unusual sites where lipids bind within this structur

Physics of Neutron Star Crusts

The physics of neutron star crusts is vast, involving many different research fields, from nuclear and condensed matter physics to general relativity. This review summarizes the progress, which has been achieved over the last few years, in modeling neutron star crusts, both at the microscopic and macroscopic levels. The confrontation of these theoretical models with observations is also briefly discussed.Comment: 182 pages, published version available at <http://www.livingreviews.org/lrr-2008-10

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

A Lipopeptide Facilitate Induction of Mycobacterium leprae Killing in Host Cells

Little is known of the direct microbicidal activity of T cells in leprosy, so a lipopeptide consisting of the N-terminal 13 amino acids lipopeptide (LipoK) of a 33-kD lipoprotein of Mycobacterium leprae, was synthesized. LipoK activated M. leprae infected human dendritic cells (DCs) to induce the production of IL-12. These activated DCs stimulated autologous CD4+ or CD8+ T cells towards type 1 immune response by inducing interferon-gamma secretion. T cell proliferation was also evident from the CFSE labeling of target CD4+ or CD8+ T cells. The direct microbicidal activity of T cells in the control of M. leprae multiplication is not well understood. The present study showed significant production of granulysin, granzyme B and perforin from these activated CD4+ and CD8+ T cells when stimulated with LipoK activated, M. leprae infected DCs. Assessment of the viability of M. leprae in DCs indicated LipoK mediated T cell-dependent killing of M. leprae. Remarkably, granulysin as well as granzyme B could directly kill M. leprae in vitro. Our results provide evidence that LipoK could facilitate M. leprae killing through the production of effector molecules granulysin and granzyme B in T cells

Prognostic importance of survivin in breast cancer

Survivin is a member of the inhibitor of apoptosis (IAP) family, and is also involved in the regulation of cell division. Survivin is widely expressed in foetal tissues and in human cancers, but generally not in normal adult tissue. This study examined the expression of surviving protein in a series of 293 cases of invasive primary breast carcinoma. Survivin immunoreactivity was assessed using two different polyclonal antibodies, and evaluated semiquantitatively according to the percentage of cells demonstrating distinct nuclear and/or diffuse cytoplasmic staining. Overall, 60% of tumours were positive for survivin: 31% demonstrated nuclear staining only, 13% cytoplasmic only, and 16% of tumour cells demonstrated both nuclear and cytoplasmic staining. Statistical analysis revealed that survivin expression was independent of patient's age, tumour size, histological grade, nodal status, and oestrogen receptor status. In multivariate analysis, nuclear survivin expression was a significant independent prognostic indicator of favourable outcome both in relapse-free and overall survival (P<0.001 and P=0.01, respectively). In conclusion, our results show that survivin is frequently overexpressed in primary breast cancer. Nuclear expression is most common and is an independent prognostic indicator of good prognosis

Naturally Occurring Lipid A Mutants in Neisseria meningitidis from Patients with Invasive Meningococcal Disease Are Associated with Reduced Coagulopathy

Neisseria meningitidis is a major cause of bacterial meningitis and sepsis worldwide. Lipopolysaccharide (LPS), a major component of the Gram-negative bacterial outer membrane, is sensed by mammalian cells through Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4), resulting in activation of proinflammatory cytokine pathways. TLR4 recognizes the lipid A moiety of the LPS molecule, and the chemical composition of the lipid A determines how well it is recognized by TLR4. N. meningitidis has been reported to produce lipid A with six acyl chains, the optimal number for TLR4 recognition. Indeed, meningococcal sepsis is generally seen as the prototypical endotoxin-mediated disease. In the present study, we screened meningococcal disease isolates from 464 patients for their ability to induce cytokine production in vitro. We found that around 9% of them were dramatically less potent than wild-type strains. Analysis of the lipid A of several of the low-activity strains by mass spectrometry revealed they were penta-acylated, suggesting a mutation in the lpxL1 or lpxL2 genes required for addition of secondary acyl chains. Sequencing of these genes showed that all the low activity strains had mutations that inactivated the lpxL1 gene. In order to see whether lpxL1 mutants might give a different clinical picture, we investigated the clinical correlate of these mutations in a prospective nationwide observational cohort study of adults with meningococcal meningitis. Patients infected with an lpxL1 mutant presented significantly less frequently with rash and had higher thrombocyte counts, consistent with reduced cytokine induction and less activation of tissue-factor mediated coagulopathy. In conclusion, here we report for the first time that a surprisingly large fraction of meningococcal clinical isolates have LPS with underacylated lipid A due to mutations in the lpxL1 gene. The resulting low-activity LPS may have an important role in virulence by aiding the bacteria to evade the innate immune system. Our results provide the first example of a specific mutation in N. meningitidis that can be correlated with the clinical course of meningococcal disease