7,079 research outputs found
Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events
We show how Markov mixed membership models (MMMM) can be used to predict the
degradation of assets. We model the degradation path of individual assets, to
predict overall failure rates. Instead of a separate distribution for each
hidden state, we use hierarchical mixtures of distributions in the exponential
family. In our approach the observation distribution of the states is a finite
mixture distribution of a small set of (simpler) distributions shared across
all states. Using tied-mixture observation distributions offers several
advantages. The mixtures act as a regularization for typically very sparse
problems, and they reduce the computational effort for the learning algorithm
since there are fewer distributions to be found. Using shared mixtures enables
sharing of statistical strength between the Markov states and thus transfer
learning. We determine for individual assets the trade-off between the risk of
failure and extended operating hours by combining a MMMM with a partially
observable Markov decision process (POMDP) to dynamically optimize the policy
for when and how to maintain the asset.Comment: Will be published in the proceedings of ICCS 2020;
@Booklet{EasyChair:3183, author = {Paul Hofmann and Zaid Tashman}, title =
{Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events},
howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 3183}, year = {EasyChair, 2020}
The synchrotron self-compton model for x-ray and γ-ray emission from pulsars
We compare the observed X-ray luminosity emitted from pulsars with that calculated from various theoretical models and find that the X-ray emission from six pulsars is much stronger than that predicted by theoretical models. We suggest that these pulsars with unusually intense X-ray emission could also be γ-ray emitters. Electrons/positrons are accelerated in the outer magnetospheric gap and lose most of their energy via curvature radiation (primary photons), which will be converted to secondary e ± pairs outside the gap in collision with the secondary X-rays. A simple synchrotron self-Compton model is then used to calculate the X-ray and γ-ray emission from the secondary e ± pairs. This model only contains a single free parameter, which characterizes the size of the acceleration region and can be estimated by comparison with that of the Crab pulsar. Our model results are consistent with the observed data and upper limits of γ-ray emission and phase separation between pulses. Other implications for future observations are also discussed in the text.published_or_final_versio
Pulsed and unpulsed gamma-ray emission from millisecond pulsars
We use the outer gap model to study the gamma-ray emission and pair production processes of millisecond pulsars. The small light cylinder of millisecond pulsars results in a large optical depth for gamma rays produced inside the light cylinder. Electron/position cascade will take place until the energy of emitted gamma rays is less than a specific threshold energy (E crit). The model for the pulsed gamma-ray spectrum is F1(Eγ) ∼ Eγ -2 for Eγ ≤ E crit. Furthermore, electrons/positrons accelerated in the outer gap can continue to interact with the low-energy gamma rays beyond the light cylinder to produce very high energy gamma rays. The subsequent pair production and radiation processes can produce unpulsed high-energy photons in the energy range of the EGRET detector on board the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory with a model spectrum F 2(Eγ) ∼ Eγ∼ -3/2 for most millisecond pulsars. We have calculated the theoretical spectra of PSR J0751 + 18, PSR 1821-24, and PSR 1937+21 to illustrate our model. Unpulsed gamma-ray emission from other sources, e.g., 47 Tuc, are discussed also. © 1996. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.published_or_final_versio
What do -ray bursts look like?
There have been great and rapid progresses in the field of -ray
bursts (denoted as GRBs) since BeppoSAX and other telescopes discovered their
afterglows in 1997. Here, we will first give a brief review on the
observational facts of GRBs and direct understanding from these facts, which
lead to the standard fireball model. The dynamical evolution of the fireball is
discussed, especially a generic model is proposed to describe the whole
dynamical evolution of GRB remnant from highly radiative to adiabatic, and from
ultra-relativistic to non-relativistic phase. Then, Various deviations from the
standard model are discussed to give new information about GRBs and their
environment. In order to relax the energy crisis, the beaming effects and their
possible observational evidences are also discussed in GRB's radiations.Comment: 10 pages, Latex. Invited talk at the Pacific Rim Conference on
Stellar Astrophysics, Hong Kong, China, Aug. 199
The Spectrum of Strings on Warped AdS_3 x S^3
String theory on NS-NS AdS_3 x S^3 admits an exactly marginal deformation
which breaks the SL(2,R)_R x SL(2,R)_L isometry of AdS_3 down to SL(2,R)_R x
U(1)_L. The holographic dual is an exotic and only partially understood type of
two-dimensional CFT with a reduced unbroken global conformal symmetry group. In
this paper we study the deformed theory on the string worldsheet. It is found
to be related by a spectral flow which is nonlocal in spacetime to the
undeformed worldsheet theory. An exact formula for the spectrum of massive
strings is presented.Comment: 26 pages, no figure
Experimental demonstration of a hyper-entangled ten-qubit Schr\"odinger cat state
Coherent manipulation of an increasing number of qubits for the generation of
entangled states has been an important goal and benchmark in the emerging field
of quantum information science. The multiparticle entangled states serve as
physical resources for measurement-based quantum computing and high-precision
quantum metrology. However, their experimental preparation has proved extremely
challenging. To date, entangled states up to six, eight atoms, or six photonic
qubits have been demonstrated. Here, by exploiting both the photons'
polarization and momentum degrees of freedom, we report the creation of
hyper-entangled six-, eight-, and ten-qubit Schr\"odinger cat states. We
characterize the cat states by evaluating their fidelities and detecting the
presence of genuine multi-partite entanglement. Small modifications of the
experimental setup will allow the generation of various graph states up to ten
qubits. Our method provides a shortcut to expand the effective Hilbert space,
opening up interesting applications such as quantum-enhanced super-resolving
phase measurement, graph-state generation for anyonic simulation and
topological error correction, and novel tests of nonlocality with
hyper-entanglement.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, comments welcom
Relation of substance use disorders to mortality, accident and emergency department attendances, and hospital admissions: A 13-year population-based cohort study in Hong Kong
BACKGROUND: The impact of substance use disorders (SUD) in an Asian population has not been fully explored. We aimed to assess the risk of mortality, accident and emergency (A&E) department attendances, and hospital admissions associated with SUD in a population-based cohort study. METHOD: Patients diagnosed with SUD in public A&E departments from 2004 to 2016 (N = 8,423) were identified in the Clinical Database Analysis and Reporting System of the Hong Kong Hospital Authority and 1:1 matched to patients without SUD by propensity score (N = 6,074 in each group). Relative risks of mortality, A&E attendances and hospital admissions were assessed using Cox regression and Hurdle negative binomial regression. RESULTS: Patients with SUD had higher mortality (hazard ratio=1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.26-1.62) and more often died from poisoning or toxicity and injuries. The odds ratio (OR) for A&E attendances and all-cause hospital admissions associated with SUD were 2.80 (95% CI=2.58-3.04) and 3.54 (95% CI=3.26-3.83), respectively. The impact of SUD on the above outcomes was greatest among school-aged individuals (≤ 21 years) and decreased with age. The relative risk of mental disorder-related hospital admissions was much higher than that for infections, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular diseases. In patients with SUD, ketamine and amphetamine use were associated with increased A&E attendances than opioid use. CONCLUSIONS: SUD was associated with increased mortality, A&E attendances and hospital admissions, especially in school-aged individuals. Our findings suggest prioritising early treatment and preventive interventions for school-aged individuals and focusing on the management of comorbid mental disorders and the use of ketamine and amphetamine
Dramatic escalation in metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk in a Chinese population experiencing rapid economic development
Background
Metabolic syndrome (MetSyn) increases the incidence of cardiovascular disease. Information on changes in prevalence of MetSyn in developing countries is limited. This study aims to compare MetSyn prevalence and its associated vascular risk over the period between 2002 and 2010 in a population which has had the world’s fastest economic development over the past three decades.
Methods
Two health surveys were conducted by using the multistage cluster random sampling method in a Chinese population of 85 million in southern China. The participants received a full medical check-up, including measurement of blood pressure (BP), obesity indices, fasting lipids and glucose levels. Data describing socio-economic status and lifestyle factors were also collected through interview. Metabolic syndrome was defined in accordance with the International Diabetes Federation criteria.
Results
A total of 3,561 participants from Survey 2010 were included in the data analysis. Women had a significantly higher prevalence of MetSyn than men. Comparison between the two surveys shows that age-standardized prevalence of MetSyn increased fourfold (from 5.4% in 2002 to 21.3% in 2010) in those ≧ 20 years. Among the MetSyn components, prevalence of hyperglycaemia has increased most (from 9.1% to 53.1%). The age-standardized prevalence of central obesity, hypertension, hypertriglyceridaemia and low HDL-cholesterol increased from 13.5% to 25.4%, from 23.6% to 40.8%, from 12.1% to 17.4% and from 32.1% to 71.1%, respectively. Differences between rural and urban residents in the prevalence in MetSyn and its components narrowed in 2010.
Conclusions
Cardiovascular risk escalated dramatically in this population between 2002 and 2010. The escalation may relate to the rapid economic development, which led to accelerating changes in nutrition, lifestyle, and socio-economic status. Our findings suggest that health transition in rapidly developing second- and third-world countries may be much faster than what has been observed in Western countries.published_or_final_versio
Population genomics of domestic and wild yeasts
The natural genetics of an organism is determined by the distribution of sequences of its genome. Here we present one- to four-fold, with some deeper, coverage of the genome sequences of over seventy isolates of the domesticated baker's yeast, _Saccharomyces cerevisiae_, and its closest relative, the wild _S. paradoxus_, which has never been associated with human activity. These were collected from numerous geographic locations and sources (including wild, clinical, baking, wine, laboratory and food spoilage). These sequences provide an unprecedented view of the population structure, natural (and artificial) selection and genome evolution in these species. Variation in gene content, SNPs, indels, copy numbers and transposable elements provide insights into the evolution of different lineages. Phenotypic variation broadly correlates with global genome-wide phylogenetic relationships however there is no correlation with source. _S. paradoxus_ populations are well delineated along geographic boundaries while the variation among worldwide _S. cerevisiae_ isolates show less differentiation and is comparable to a single _S. paradoxus_ population. Rather than one or two domestication events leading to the extant baker's yeasts, the population structure of _S. cerevisiae_ shows a few well defined geographically isolated lineages and many different mosaics of these lineages, supporting the notion that human influence provided the opportunity for outbreeding and production of new combinations of pre-existing variation
Experimental demonstration of a BDCZ quantum repeater node
Quantum communication is a method that offers efficient and secure ways for
the exchange of information in a network. Large-scale quantum communication (of
the order of 100 km) has been achieved; however, serious problems occur beyond
this distance scale, mainly due to inevitable photon loss in the transmission
channel. Quantum communication eventually fails when the probability of a dark
count in the photon detectors becomes comparable to the probability that a
photon is correctly detected. To overcome this problem, Briegel, D\"{u}r, Cirac
and Zoller (BDCZ) introduced the concept of quantum repeaters, combining
entanglement swapping and quantum memory to efficiently extend the achievable
distances. Although entanglement swapping has been experimentally demonstrated,
the implementation of BDCZ quantum repeaters has proved challenging owing to
the difficulty of integrating a quantum memory. Here we realize entanglement
swapping with storage and retrieval of light, a building block of the BDCZ
quantum repeater. We follow a scheme that incorporates the strategy of BDCZ
with atomic quantum memories. Two atomic ensembles, each originally entangled
with a single emitted photon, are projected into an entangled state by
performing a joint Bell state measurement on the two single photons after they
have passed through a 300-m fibre-based communication channel. The entanglement
is stored in the atomic ensembles and later verified by converting the atomic
excitations into photons. Our method is intrinsically phase insensitive and
establishes the essential element needed to realize quantum repeaters with
stationary atomic qubits as quantum memories and flying photonic qubits as
quantum messengers.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure
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