Multivariable risk prediction can greatly enhance the statistical power of clinical trial subgroup analysis

BACKGROUND: When subgroup analyses of a positive clinical trial are unrevealing, such findings are commonly used to argue that the treatment's benefits apply to the entire study population; however, such analyses are often limited by poor statistical power. Multivariable risk-stratified analysis has been proposed as an important advance in investigating heterogeneity in treatment benefits, yet no one has conducted a systematic statistical examination of circumstances influencing the relative merits of this approach vs. conventional subgroup analysis. METHODS: Using simulated clinical trials in which the probability of outcomes in individual patients was stochastically determined by the presence of risk factors and the effects of treatment, we examined the relative merits of a conventional vs. a "risk-stratified" subgroup analysis under a variety of circumstances in which there is a small amount of uniformly distributed treatment-related harm. The statistical power to detect treatment-effect heterogeneity was calculated for risk-stratified and conventional subgroup analysis while varying: 1) the number, prevalence and odds ratios of individual risk factors for risk in the absence of treatment, 2) the predictiveness of the multivariable risk model (including the accuracy of its weights), 3) the degree of treatment-related harm, and 5) the average untreated risk of the study population. RESULTS: Conventional subgroup analysis (in which single patient attributes are evaluated "one-at-a-time") had at best moderate statistical power (30% to 45%) to detect variation in a treatment's net relative risk reduction resulting from treatment-related harm, even under optimal circumstances (overall statistical power of the study was good and treatment-effect heterogeneity was evaluated across a major risk factor [OR = 3]). In some instances a multi-variable risk-stratified approach also had low to moderate statistical power (especially when the multivariable risk prediction tool had low discrimination). However, a multivariable risk-stratified approach can have excellent statistical power to detect heterogeneity in net treatment benefit under a wide variety of circumstances, instances under which conventional subgroup analysis has poor statistical power. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that under many likely scenarios, a multivariable risk-stratified approach will have substantially greater statistical power than conventional subgroup analysis for detecting heterogeneity in treatment benefits and safety related to previously unidentified treatment-related harm. Subgroup analyses must always be well-justified and interpreted with care, and conventional subgroup analyses can be useful under some circumstances; however, clinical trial reporting should include a multivariable risk-stratified analysis when an adequate externally-developed risk prediction tool is available

Behavioural and Physiological Responses of Gammarus pulex Exposed to Cadmium and Arsenate at Three Temperatures: Individual and Combined Effects

This study aimed at investigating both the individual and combined effects of cadmium (Cd) and arsenate (AsV) on the physiology and behaviour of the Crustacean Gammarus pulex at three temperatures (5, 10 and15°C). G. pulex was exposed during 96 h to (i) two [Cd] alone, (ii) two [AsV] alone, and (iii) four combinations of [Cd] and [AsV] to obtain a complete factorial plane. After exposure, survival, [AsV] or [Cd] in body tissues, behavioural (ventilatory and locomotor activities) and physiological responses (iono-regulation of [Na+] and [Cl−] in haemolymph) were examined. The interactive effects (antagonistic, additive or synergistic) of binary mixtures were evaluated for each tested temperature using a predictive model for the theoretically expected interactive effect of chemicals. In single metal exposure, both the internal metal concentration in body tissues and the mortality rate increased along metallic gradient concentration. Cd alone significantly impaired both [Na+] and [Cl−] while AsV alone had a weak impact only on [Cl−]. The behavioural responses of G. pulex declined with increasing metal concentration suggesting a reallocation of energy from behavioural responses to maintenance functions. The interaction between AsV and Cd was considered as ‘additive’ for all the tested binary mixtures and temperatures (except for the lowest combination at 10°C considered as “antagonistic”). In binary mixtures, the decrease in both ventilatory and locomotor activities and the decline in haemolymphatic [Cl−] were amplified when respectively compared to those observed with the same concentrations of AsV or Cd alone. However, the presence of AsV decreased the haemolymphatic [Na+] loss when G. pulex was exposed to the lowest Cd concentration. Finally, the observed physiological and behavioural effects (except ventilation) in G. pulex exposed to AsV and/or Cd were exacerbated under the highest temperature. The discussion encompasses both the toxicity mechanisms of these metals and their interaction with rising temperature

Five-year experience of clinical ethics consultations in a pediatric teaching hospital

Our retrospective study presents and evaluates clinical ethics consultations (CECs) in pediatrics as a structure for implementing hospital-wide ethics. We performed a descriptive and statistical analysis of clinical ethics decision making and its implementation in pediatric CECs at Zurich University Children's Hospital. Ninety-five CECs were held over 5 years for 80 patients. The care team reached a consensus treatment recommendation after one session in 75 consultations (89 %) and on 82 of 84 ethical issues (98 %) after two or more sessions (11 repeats). Fifty-seven CECs recommended limited treatment and 23 maximal treatment. Team recommendations were agreed outright by parents and/or patient in 59 of 73 consultations (81 %). Initial dissensus yielded to explanatory discussion or repeat CEC in seven consultations (10 %). In a further seven families (10 %), no solution was found within the CEC framework: five (7 %) required involvement of the child protection service, and in two families, the parents took their child elsewhere. Eventual team-parent/patient consensus was reached in 66 of 73 families (90 %) with documented parental/patient decisions (missing data, n = 11). Patient preference was assessable in ten CECs. Patient autonomy was part of the ethical dilemma in only three CECs. The Zurich clinical ethics structure produced a 98 % intra-team consensus rate in 95 CECs and reduced initial team-parent dissensus from 21 to 10 %. Success depends closely on a standardized CEC protocol and an underlying institutional clinical ethics framework embodying a comprehensive set of transparently articulated values and opinions, with regular evaluation of decisions and their consequences for care teams and families

The Effects of Information Framing on the Practices of Physicians

OBJECTIVE: The presentation format of clinical trial results, or the “frame,” may influence perceptions about the worth of a treatment. The extent and consistency of that influence are unclear. We undertook a systematic review of the published literature on the effects of information framing on the practices of physicians. DESIGN: Relevant articles were retrieved using bibliographic and electronic searches. Information was extracted from each in relation to study design, frame type, parameter assessed, assessment scale, clinical setting, intervention, results, and factors modifying the frame effect. MAIN RESULTS: Twelve articles reported randomized trials investigating the effect of framing on doctors' opinions or intended practices. Methodological shortcomings were numerous. Seven papers investigated the effect of presenting clinical trial results in terms of relative risk reduction, or absolute risk reductions or the number needing to be treated; gain/loss (positive/negative) terms were used in four papers; verbal/numeric terms in one. In simple clinical scenarios, results expressed in relative risk reduction or gain terms were viewed most positively by doctors. Factors that reduced the impact of framing included the risk of causing harm, preexisting prejudices about treatments, the type of decision, the therapeutic yield, clinical experience, and costs. No study investigated the effect of framing on actual clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: While a framing effect may exist, particularly when results are presented in terms of proportional or absolute measures of gain or loss, it appears highly susceptible to modification, and even neutralization, by other factors that influence doctors' decision making. Its effects on actual clinical practice are unknown

Feeding behavioural studies with Freshwater Gammarus spp.: The importance of a standardised methodology

Freshwater Gammarids are common leaf-shredding detritivores, and they usually feed on naturally conditioned organic material, in other words leaf litter that is characterised by an increased palatability, due to the action and presence of microorganisms (Chaumot et al. 2015; Cummins 1974: Maltby et al. 2002). Gammarus spp. are biologically omnivorous organisms, so they are involved in shredding leaf litter and are also prone to cannibalism, predation behaviour (Kelly et al. 2002) and coprophagy when juveniles (McCahon and Pascoe 1988). Gammarus spp. is a keystone species (Woodward et al. 2008), and it plays an important role in the decomposition of organic matter (Alonso et al. 2009; Bundschuh et al. 2013) and is also a noteworthy prey for fish and birds (Andrén and Eriksson Wiklund 2013; Blarer and Burkhardt-Holm 2016). Gammarids are considered to be fairly sensitive to different contaminants (Ashauer et al. 2010; Bloor et al. 2005; Felten et al. 2008a; Lahive et al. 2015; Kunz et al. 2010); in fact Amphipods have been reported to be one of the most sensitive orders to metals and organic compounds (Wogram and Liess 2001), which makes them representative test organisms for ecotoxicological studies and valid sentinel species for assessing water quality status (Garcia-Galan et al. 2017)