Computing the Accuracy of Complex Non-Random Sampling Methods: The Case of the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey

A number of central banks publish their own business conditions survey based on non-random sampling methods. The results of these surveys influence monetary policy decisions and thus affect expectations in financial markets. To date, however, no one has computed the statistical accuracy of these surveys because their respective non-random sampling method renders this assessment non-trivial. This paper describes a methodology for modeling complex non-random sampling behaviour, and computing relevant measures of statistical confidence, based on a given survey's historical sample selection practice. We apply this framework to the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey by describing the sampling method in terms of historical practices and Bayesian probabilities. This allows us to replicate the firm selection process using Monte Carlo simulations on a comprehensive micro-dataset of Canadian firms. We find, under certain assumptions, no evidence that the Bank's firm selection process results in biased estimates and/or wider confidence intervals.Econometric and statistical methods; Central bank research; Regional economic developments

Innovative implementation by non-state actors in environment-related areas : towards a positive implementation gap ?

This contribution (presented in the first International Conference on Public Policy (ICPP) in Grenoble in June 2013) explores the phenomena of innovation in action ("innovative implementation"). To do so, we operationalize "innovative implementation" as a strategy by which (coalitions of) non-state actors seek to develop ad hoc solutions to address a given environmental issue, going beyond what is provided for in formal policy designs. Following an inductive research strategy, we elaborate a conceptual framework whose main advantage is to bring the actors and their coalition (in all their diversity) back in the analysis. More concretely, we state that perceiving implementation as broader 'social interaction processes' (De Boer & Bressers 2011) within which actors play strategic 'games' (Bardach 1977, Scharpf 1997) opens interesting lines of research to better account for their innovative and strategic behaviours. In a second step, we apply this framework to three strategies of innovative implementation in different contexts, and identify on this basis empirical regularities in the individual pathways related to the emergence and success (or failure) of these strategies

Regional Labour Market Dynamics and Economics Participation: The Mediation Role of Education and Training Institutions

Since the late 1970s in New Zealand, education and training have been essential elements as governments have grappled with maintaining and increasing the employability of the labour force. This paper reports on one phase of the Labour Market Dynamics and Economic Participation research programme which addresses the role that education and training institutions play in mediating labour supply and demand and promoting economic participation within various New Zealand regional labour markets. The paper refines and extends some of the key concepts of the Department of Labour's Human Capability Framework to explore the effectiveness of regional education and training institutions, and other intersecting regional and national organisations, in mediating regional labour market supply and demand

Large deviations for polling systems

Related INRIA Research report available at : http://hal.inria.fr/docs/00/07/27/62/PDF/RR-3892.pdfInternational audienceWe aim at presenting in short the technical report, which states a sample path large deviation principle for a resealed process n-1 Qnt, where Qt represents the joint number of clients at time t in a single server 1-limited polling system with Markovian routing. The main goal is to identify the rate function. A so-called empirical generator is introduced, which consists of Q t and of two empirical measures associated with S t the position of the server at time t. The analysis relies on a suitable change of measure and on a representation of fluid limits for polling systems. Finally, the rate function is solution of a meaningful convex program

Orbital Parameters and Chemical Composition of Four White Dwarfs in Post-Common Envelope Binaries

We present FUSE observations of the hot white dwarfs in the post-common envelope binaries Feige 24, EUVE J0720-317, BPM 6502, and EUVE J2013+400. The spectra show numerous photospheric absorption lines which trace the white dwarf orbital motion. We report the detection of C III, O VI, P V, and Si IV in the spectra of Feige 24, EUVE J0720-317 and EUVE J2013+400, and the detection of C III, N II, Si III, Si IV, and Fe III in the spectra of BPM 6502. Abundance measurements support the possibility that white dwarfs in post-common envelope binaries accrete material from the secondary star wind. The FUSE observations of BPM 6502 and EUVE J2013+400 cover a complete binary orbit. We used the FUSE spectra to measure the radial velocities traced by the white dwarf in the four binaries, where the zero-point velocity were fixed using the ISM velocities in the line of sight of the stellar systems. For BPM 6502 we determined a white dwarf velocity semi-amplitude of K_WD = 18.6+/-0.5km/s, and with the velocity semi-amplitude of the red dwarf companion (K_RD = 75.2+/-3.1 km/s), we estimate the mass ratio to be q = 0.25+/-0.01. Adopting a spectroscopic mass determination for the white dwarf, we infer a low secondary mass of M_RD = 0.14+/-0.01 M_solar. For EUVE J2013+400 we determine a white dwarf velocity semi-amplitude of K_WD = 36.7+/-0.7 km/s. The FUSE observations of EUVE J0720-317 cover approximately 30% of the binary period and combined with the HST GHRS measurements (Vennes et al. 1999, ApJ 523, 386), we update the binary properties. FUSE observations of Feige 24 cover approximately 60% of the orbit and we combine this data set with HST STIS (Vennes et al. 2000, ApJ, 544, 423) data to update the binary properties.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

Roughness gradient induced spontaneous motion of droplets on hydrophobic surfaces: A lattice Boltzmann study

The effect of a step wise change in the pillar density on the dynamics of droplets is investigated via three-dimensional lattice Boltzmann simulations. For the same pillar density gradient but different pillar arrangements, both motion over the gradient zone as well as complete arrest are observed. In the moving case, the droplet velocity scales approximately linearly with the texture gradient. A simple model is provided reproducing the observed linear behavior. The model also predicts a linear dependence of droplet velocity on surface tension. This prediction is clearly confirmed via our computer simulations for a wide range of surface tensions.Comment: 6 pages, 8 figure

Holomorphic Simplicity Constraints for 4d Spinfoam Models

Within the framework of spinfoam models, we revisit the simplicity constraints reducing topological BF theory to 4d Riemannian gravity. We use the reformulation of SU(2) intertwiners and spin networks in term of spinors, which has come out from both the recently developed U(N) framework for SU(2) intertwiners and the twisted geometry approach to spin networks and spinfoam boundary states. Using these tools, we are able to perform a holomorphic/anti-holomorphic splitting of the simplicity constraints and define a new set of holomorphic simplicity constraints, which are equivalent to the standard ones at the classical level and which can be imposed strongly on intertwiners at the quantum level. We then show how to solve these new holomorphic simplicity constraints using coherent intertwiner states. We further define the corresponding coherent spin network functionals and introduce a new spinfoam model for 4d Riemannian gravity based on these holomorphic simplicity constraints and whose amplitudes are defined from the evaluation of the new coherent spin networks.Comment: 27 page

Clean Colon Software Program (CCSP), Proposal of a standardized Method to quantify Colon Cleansing During Colonoscopy: Preliminary Results

Background and study aims: Neoplastic lesions can be missed during colonoscopy, especially when cleansing is inadequate. Bowel preparation scales have significant limitations and no objective and standardized method currently exists to establish colon cleanliness during colonoscopy. The aims of our study are to create a software algorithm that is able to analyze bowel cleansing during colonoscopies and to compare it to a validate bowel preparation scale. Patients and methods: A software application (the Clean Colon Software Program, CCSP) was developed. Fifty colonoscopies were carried out and video-recorded. Each video was divided into 3 segments: cecum-hepatic flexure (1st Segment), hepatic flexure-descending colon (2nd Segment) and rectosigmoid segment (3rd Segment). Each segment was recorded twice, both before and after careful cleansing of the intestinal wall. A score from 0 (dirty) to 3 (clean) was then assigned by CCSP. All the videos were also viewed by four endoscopists and colon cleansing was established using the Boston Bowel Preparation Scale. Interclass correlation coefficient was then calculated between the endoscopists and the software. Results: The cleansing score of the prelavage colonoscopies was 1.56\ub10.52 and the postlavage one was 2,08\ub10,59 (P<0.001) showing an approximate 33.3% improvement in cleansing after lavage. Right colon segment prelavage (0.99\ub10.69) was dirtier than left colon segment prelavage (2.07\ub10.71). The overall interobserver agreement between the average cleansing score for the 4 endoscopists and the software pre-cleansing was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84\u20130.90) and post-cleansing was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.83\u20130.89). Conclusions: The software is able to discriminate clean from non-clean colon tracts with high significance and is comparable to endoscopist evaluation

Effective theory for the Goldstone field in the BCS-BEC crossover at T=0

We perform a detailed study of the effective Lagrangian for the Goldstone mode of a superfluid Fermi gas at zero temperature in the whole BCS-BEC crossover. By using a derivative expansion of the response functions, we derive the most general form of this Lagrangian at the next to leading order in the momentum expansion in terms of four coefficient functions. This involves the elimination of all the higher order time derivatives by careful use of the leading order field equations. In the infinite scattering length limit where conformal invariance is realized, we show that the effective Lagrangian must contain an unnoticed invariant combination of higher spatial gradients of the Goldstone mode, while explicit couplings to spatial gradients of the trapping potential are absent. Across the whole crossover, we determine all the coefficient functions at the one-loop level, taking into account the dependence of the gap parameter on the chemical potential in the mean-field approximation. These results are analytically expressed in terms of elliptic integrals of the first and second kind. We discuss the form of these coefficients in the extreme BCS and BEC regimes and around the unitary limit, and compare with recent work by other authors.Comment: 27 pages. 4 references added, typos corrected, expanded Section III

Superconductivity of Quasi-Two-Dimensional Tight-Binding Electrons in a Strong Magnetic Field

We have investigated the transition temperature $T_{\rm c}(H)$ of superconductiv ity in quasi-two-dimensional (Q2D) tight-binding electrons in a strong magnetic field. When the magnetic field is parallel to 2D conducting plane, $T_{\rm c}(H)$ of the Q2D superconductor is shown to increase in an oscillatory manner as the magnetic field becomes large and to reach $T_{\rm c}(0)$ in a strong magnetic f ield limit for the spin-triplet superconductor. We consider the cases of on-site and nearest sites attractive interaction, and calculate the magnetic field depe ndences of the transition temperature for various types of symmetry. The first o rder transition from $p_y$-wave to $p_x$-wave is shown to occur at $H\sim 35$T w hen the magnetic field is parallel to the $y$ direction, which will be observed in a triplet superconductor, Sr$_2$RuO$_4$.Comment: 13pages,6figure