Joint modelling of serological and hospitalization data reveals that high levels of pre-existing immunity and school holidays shaped the influenza A pandemic of 2009 in the Netherlands.

Obtaining a quantitative understanding of the transmission dynamics of influenza A is important for predicting healthcare demand and assessing the likely impact of intervention measures. The pandemic of 2009 provides an ideal platform for developing integrative analyses as it has been studied intensively, and a wealth of data sources is available. Here, we analyse two complementary datasets in a disease transmission framework: cross-sectional serological surveys providing data on infection attack rates, and hospitalization data that convey information on the timing and duration of the pandemic. We estimate key epidemic determinants such as infection and hospitalization rates, and the impact of a school holiday. In contrast to previous approaches, our novel modelling of serological data with mixture distributions provides a probabilistic classification of individual samples (susceptible, immune and infected), propagating classification uncertainties to the transmission model and enabling serological classifications to be informed by hospitalization data. The analyses show that high levels of immunity among persons 20 years and older provide a consistent explanation of the skewed attack rates observed during the pandemic and yield precise estimates of the probability of hospitalization per infection (1-4 years: 0.00096 (95%CrI: 0.00078-0.0012); 5-19 years: 0.00036 (0.00031-0.0044); 20-64 years: 0.0015 (0.00091-0.0020); 65+ years: 0.0084 (0.0028-0.016)). The analyses suggest that in The Netherlands, the school holiday period reduced the number of infectious contacts between 5- and 9-year-old children substantially (estimated reduction: 54%; 95%CrI: 29-82%), thereby delaying the unfolding of the pandemic in The Netherlands by approximately a week

Heterosubtypic cross-reactivity of HA1 antibodies to influenza A, with emphasis on nonhuman subtypes (H5N1, H7N7, H9N2)

Epidemics of influenza A vary greatly in size and age distribution of cases, and this variation is attributed to varying levels of pre-existing immunity. Recent studies have shown that antibody-mediated immune responses are more cross-reactive than previously believed, and shape patterns of humoral immunity to influenza A viruses over long periods. Here we quantify antibody responses to the hemagglutinin subunit 1 (HA1) across a range of subtypes using protein microarray analysis of cross-sectional serological surveys carried out in the Netherlands before and after the A/2009 (H1N1) pandemic. We find significant associations of responses, both within and between subtypes. Interestingly, substantial overall reactivity is observed to HA1 of avian H7N7 and H9N2 viruses. Seroprevalence of H7N7 correlates with antibody titers to A/1968 (H3N2), and is highest in persons born between 1954 and 1969. Seroprevalence of H9N2 is high across all ages, and correlates strongly with A/1957 (H2N2). This correlation is most pronounced in A/2009 (H1N1) infected persons born after 1968 who have never encountered A/1957 (H2N2)-like viruses. We conclude that heterosubtypic antibody cross-reactivity, both between human subtypes and between human and nonhuman subtypes, is common in the human population

Beyond the Tree-Line: The C3-C4 “Grass-Line” Can Track Global Change in the World’s Grassy Mountain Systems

von Humboldt’s tree-line concept has dominated mountain ecology for almost two hundred years, and is considered a key indicator for monitoring change in biome boundaries and biodiversity shifts under climate change. Even though the concept of life zones and elevation gradients are a globally observed phenomenon, they have not been thoroughly explored for many contexts. One such example is the tree-line ecotone, a widely used conceptual tool to track climate change in many regions, which has limited application in the widespread tree-sparse, grassy systems that comprise a third of the world’s mountain systems. Among grasses (Poaceae), temperature is linked to variation in photosynthetic performance and community dominance for C3 and C4 metabolic groups, due to its role in limiting photorespiration in the C3 photosynthesis process. Here, we investigate this community shift in grassland-dominated mountains to demonstrate the role of climate in driving this transition and discuss the potential applications of this tool to mountain ecosystem conservation worldwide. For identifying grass-dominated mountains worldwide, we measured the grass-cover using satellite data. We then compiled Poaceae distribution data for ten grass-dominated mountains spanning from 42°S to 41°N and determined the temperature intervals and elevation ranges at which each genus was found, testing for effects of temperature, precipitation, and latitudinal gradients on the dominance of C3-C4 grasses. Temperature was the main driver of C3 dominance, with the richness of C3 genera tending to surpass the taxonomic dominance of C4 plants along mountain temperature gradients where the annual mean temperature was colder than ca. 14.6°C. Similar patterns were observed in eight out of ten mountains, suggesting that this may constitute an isotherm-driven ecotone. Consequently, this C3-C4 transition offers a promising tool for monitoring climate change impacts in grassy mountains. C3-C4 grass community shifts in response to environmental change will likely have major implications for fire frequency and severity, rangeland productivity and livelihoods, food security, and water budgets in mountain systems. Given the severity of the implications of global change on these social-ecological systems, we propose that a “grass-line” monitoring protocol be developed for global application

Beyond the tree-line : the C3-C4 “grass-line” can track global change in the world’s grassy mountain systems

Von Humboldt’s tree-line concept has dominated mountain ecology for almost two hundred years, and is considered a key indicator for monitoring change in biome boundaries and biodiversity shifts under climate change. Even though the concept of life zones and elevation gradients are a globally observed phenomenon, they have not been thoroughly explored for many contexts. One such example is the tree-line ecotone, a widely used conceptual tool to track climate change in many regions, which has limited application in the widespread tree-sparse, grassy systems that comprise a third of the world’s mountain systems. Among grasses (Poaceae), temperature is linked to variation in photosynthetic performance and community dominance for C3 and C4 metabolic groups, due to its role in limiting photorespiration in the C3 photosynthesis process. Here, we investigate this community shift in grassland-dominated mountains to demonstrate the role of climate in driving this transition and discuss the potential applications of this tool to mountain ecosystem conservation worldwide. For identifying grass-dominated mountains worldwide, we measured the grass-cover using satellite data. We then compiled Poaceae distribution data for ten grass-dominated mountains spanning from 42 S to 41 N and determined the temperature intervals and elevation ranges at which each genus was found, testing for effects of temperature, precipitation, and latitudinal gradients on the dominance of C3-C4 grasses. Temperature was the main driver of C3 dominance, with the richness of C3 genera tending to surpass the taxonomic dominance of C4 plants along mountain temperature gradients where the annual mean temperature was colder than ca. 14.6 C. Similar patterns were observed in eight out of ten mountains, suggesting that this may constitute an isotherm-driven ecotone. Consequently, this C3-C4 transition offers a promising tool for monitoring climate change impacts in grassy mountains. C3-C4 grass community shifts in response to environmental change will likely have major implications for fire frequency and severity, rangeland productivity and livelihoods, food security, and water budgets in mountain systems. Given the severity of the implications of global change on these socialecological systems, we propose that a “grass-line” monitoring protocol be developed for global application.A University of the Free State (UFS) post-doctoral research fellowship; Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior; and by Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico.https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/ecology-and-evolution#am2022Plant Production and Soil Scienc

Improved high-dimensional prediction with Random Forests by the use of co-data

Background: Prediction in high dimensional settings is difficult due to the large number of variables relative to the sample size. We demonstrate how auxiliary 'co-data' can be used to improve the performance of a Random Forest in such a setting. Results: Co-data are incorporated in the Random Forest by replacing the uniform sampling probabilities that are used to draw candidate variables by co-data moderated sampling probabilities. Co-data here are defined as any type information that is available on the variables of the primary data, but does not use its response labels. These moderated sampling probabilities are, inspired by empirical Bayes, learned from the data at hand. We demonstrate the co-data moderated Random Forest (CoRF) with two examples. In the first example we aim to predict the presence of a lymph node metastasis with gene expression data. We demonstrate how a set of external p-values, a gene signature, and the correlation between gene expression and DNA copy number can improve the predictive performance. In the second example we demonstrate how the prediction of cervical (pre-)cancer with methylation data can be improved by including the location of the probe relative to the known CpG islands, the number of CpG sites targeted by a probe, and a set of p-values from a related study. Conclusion: The proposed method is able to utilize auxiliary co-data to improve the performance of a Random Forest

Effect of Type of Cow-Calf Contact on Health, Blood Parameters, and Performance of Dairy Cows and Calves

Prolonged cow-calf contact (CCC) could potentially improve dairy calf welfare. However, it is currently unknown how different types of CCC affect animals' biological functions. We evaluated health and performance parameters of dairy calves and their dams, where calves: (i) had no contact with their dam (NC), in which the calf was removed from the dam directly after birth (n = 10); (ii) were allowed to have partial contact (PC) with their dam, in which the calf was housed in a calf pen adjacent to the cow area allowing physical contact on the initiative of the dam but no suckling (n = 18); (iii) were allowed to have full contact (FC) with their dam, including suckling, in which calves were housed together with their dams in a free-stall barn (n = 20). Throughout the first 7 weeks postpartum, data were collected on the health status, fecal microbiota, hematological profile, immune and hormonal parameters, and growth rates of calves, and on the health status, metabolic responses, and performance of dams. Overall, FC calves had more health issues (P = 0.02) and a tendency for higher antibiotic usage (P = 0.07) than NC calves. Additionally, FC calves showed elevated levels of erythrocytes, hematocrit, hemoglobin, and leukocytes on day 49 compared to NC calves (P < 0.001). Calf fecal microbiota changed over time, and we found preliminary evidence that fecal microbiota is affected by the type of CCC, as reflected by differences in relative abundances of taxa including Lactobacillus in FC calves compared to NC and PC calves except on days 7 and 66. The FC calves had a greater average daily gain in body weight than NC and PC calves (P = 0.002). Cow health was not affected by the type of CCC, although in the first 7 weeks of lactation FC cows had a lower machine-gained milk yield accompanied by a lower fat percentage than NC and PC cows (P < 0.001). These results indicate that full contact posed a challenge for calf health, presumably because the housing conditions of FC calves in this experimental context were suboptimal. Secondly, ad libitum suckling leads to higher weight gains and negatively affected milk fat content besides machine-gained yields. More research into strategies to improve cow-calf housing and management in CCC systems is warranted

Effect of Type of Cow-Calf Contact on Health, Blood Parameters, and Performance of Dairy Cows and Calves

Prolonged cow-calf contact (CCC) could potentially improve dairy calf welfare. However, it is currently unknown how different types of CCC affect animals' biological functions. We evaluated health and performance parameters of dairy calves and their dams, where calves: (i) had no contact with their dam (NC), in which the calf was removed from the dam directly after birth (n = 10); (ii) were allowed to have partial contact (PC) with their dam, in which the calf was housed in a calf pen adjacent to the cow area allowing physical contact on the initiative of the dam but no suckling (n = 18); (iii) were allowed to have full contact (FC) with their dam, including suckling, in which calves were housed together with their dams in a free-stall barn (n = 20). Throughout the first 7 weeks postpartum, data were collected on the health status, fecal microbiota, hematological profile, immune and hormonal parameters, and growth rates of calves, and on the health status, metabolic responses, and performance of dams. Overall, FC calves had more health issues (P = 0.02) and a tendency for higher antibiotic usage (P = 0.07) than NC calves. Additionally, FC calves showed elevated levels of erythrocytes, hematocrit, hemoglobin, and leukocytes on day 49 compared to NC calves (P < 0.001). Calf fecal microbiota changed over time, and we found preliminary evidence that fecal microbiota is affected by the type of CCC, as reflected by differences in relative abundances of taxa including Lactobacillus in FC calves compared to NC and PC calves except on days 7 and 66. The FC calves had a greater average daily gain in body weight than NC and PC calves (P = 0.002). Cow health was not affected by the type of CCC, although in the first 7 weeks of lactation FC cows had a lower machine-gained milk yield accompanied by a lower fat percentage than NC and PC cows (P < 0.001). These results indicate that full contact posed a challenge for calf health, presumably because the housing conditions of FC calves in this experimental context were suboptimal. Secondly, ad libitum suckling leads to higher weight gains and negatively affected milk fat content besides machine-gained yields. More research into strategies to improve cow-calf housing and management in CCC systems is warranted