Simplified Estimation of Economic Seismic Risk for Buildings

A seismic risk assessment is often performed on behalf of a buyer of commercial buildings in seismically active regions. One outcome of the assessment is that a probable maximum loss (PML) is computed. PML is of limited use to real-estate investors as it has no place in a standard financial analysis and reflects too long a planning period. We introduce an alternative to PML called probable frequent loss (PFL), defined as the mean loss resulting from shaking with 10% exceedance probability in 5 years. PFL is approximately related to expected annualized loss (EAL) through a site economic hazard coefficient (H) introduced here. PFL and EAL offer three advantages over PML: (1) meaningful planning period; (2) applicability in financial analysis (making seismic risk a potential market force); and (3) can be estimated using a single linear structural analysis, via a simplified method called linear assembly-based vulnerability (LABV) that is presented in this work. We also present a simple decision-analysis framework for real-estate investments in seismic regions, accounting for risk aversion. We show that market risk overwhelms uncertainty in seismic risk, allowing one to consider only expected consequences in seismic risk. We illustrate using 15 buildings, including a 7-story nonductile reinforced-concrete moment-frame building in Van Nuys, California, and 14 buildings from the CUREE-Caltech Woodframe Project

GARCH Estimation and Discrete Stock Prices

The continuous-state GARCH model is misspecified if applied to returns calculated from discrete price series. This paper proposes modifications of the above model for handling such cases. The focus is on the AR-GARCH framework, but the same ideas could be used for other stochastic processes as well. Using Swedish stock price data and a stochastic optimization algorithm, simulated annealing, I compare the parameter estimates and asymptotic standard errors from the approximative model and the extended models. I find small deviations between the models for longer time series and small tick sizes, but larger differences for shorter series and for larger tick size to price ratios, mainly in the conditional variance parameter estimates. None of the models provide continuous residuals. By constructing generalized residuals, I show how valid residual diagnostic and specification tests can be performed in some cases.EM estimation; compass rose; stock return modeling; latent variables; generalized residuals

The role of school social workers in giving effect to children’s right to education: A legal perspective

Social workers are not commonly employed in South African schools. However, various role players, policy documents and court findings directly or indirectly refer to the need for social services for learners. Teachers cannot fully provide this service, since they are neither trained to do so, nor have the time to fully support the psychosocial development of learners – and this could be detrimental to the pursuit of quality education. This conceptual article argues that, although not many social workers are employed by the Department of Basic Education, social services as such should be a high priority in basic education. Policy frameworks, legislation and case law provide sufficient evidence that there is a need for more social workers in South African schools. These professionals are a necessity in order to ensure that learners’ right to quality education is fully realised. The article also explains how school social workers could contribute to this quest for quality education, specifically, within the context of the 4A framework. The article concludes with an outline of what could be expected from school social workers within the 4A framework

ENHANCING CHILDREN’S SAFETY AND WELLBEING: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF A NEW SOCIAL SERVICE PROGRAMME IN FREE STATE TOWNSHIP SCHOOLS

In response to the pervasive violence affecting children's psychosocial wellbeing in South Africa, the Adopt-a-School Foundation introduced the Thari programme, targeting behavioural challenges that manifest in gangs, substance abuse and classroom disruptions. This article presents findings from a pilot project in Botshabelo, Free State, where gangsterism, academic struggles and social issues prevailed. The main study used an exploratory sequential mixed-methods design (qualitative/quantitative), but this article reports only on a part of the qualitative data from group and individual interviews that explored participants' perspectives. The study focused on children's behavioural challenges and observed school changes during implementation of the Thari programme. Results show a notable reduction in gangsterism and psychosocial issues, leading to decreased disruptive behaviour among children and highlighting improved behaviour after the introduction of psychosocial services

Policy implementation and coordination capacity: a case study of the state s capacity to implement the National Integrated Early Childhood Development policy in a district in the Eastern Cape, South Africa

Early childhood Development (ECD) refers to the suite of interventions – provided to a child from conception until the transition into school, which nurtures and enables the child to thrive and reach their full potential. Of the policy responses directed at addressing inequality, ECD is identified as pivotal in increasing equality in a society and disrupting cycles of poverty across generations (Paananen et al., 2018; Irwin et al., 2007). In the South African context, where inequality and poverty persisted even with the transition to democracy, the prominence of ECD has evolved, culminating in the establishment of a National Integrated ECD Policy (2015). Despite the policy, the provision of integrated, quality ECD services for all children is yet to be realised. Across the country, varying degrees of implementation failures prevail, with devastating consequences for those residing within the poorest areas of the country. The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) crisis compounded the urgency to address the ECD policy implementation challenges, with research illustrating how the failure of government to coordinate the implementation of ECD has brought the sector to the brink of collapse (Wills et al., 2020). The emphasis on coordination structures, that are envisaged to oversee streamlined technical solutions, continues to dominate, shaping and re-shaping the implementation landscape. This research study set out to understand the state's capacity to coordinate the implementation of the NIECD policy. Through the use of case study methodology, the research delves into the implementation of ECD in a district in the Eastern Cape province. Howlett's (2018) multiple streams/critical junctures policy framework was applied to make sense of the implementation realities that plague the ECD sector. To deepen the understanding of coordination capacity – aspirational and existing - Wu et al's (2015) policy capacity matrix provided a complementary analytical framework. Based on the findings from this research study, there is a need to reconsider the focus on coordination structures for the ECD sector to challenge the perception that coordination constitutes structures as a way of dealing with the challenges of ECD policy implementation. Instead, a shift towards far more inclusive local level engagement may contribute to a renewed consideration of coordination as that of working within the complexities of diverse contexts. The focus of this research study is opportune, as it can contribute to the current debates on coordination capacity for the implementation of ECD services in South Africa

Implications of public funding for early learning in South Africa: a case of Ekurhuleni metropolitan municipality in Gauteng

A Master’s degree research report presented in partial fulfilment for the award of Master of Management in Public Policy At University of the Witwatersrand, Wits School of GovernancePreschool education is arguably one of the most important phases of education throughout the entire education system. This research report was aimed at exploring broad implications of dissemination of public funds (or lack thereof) in the earliest years of learning, what is generally known as Early Childhood Development Education. It found that whilst current public funding modalities have played a tremendous role in helping ECD practitioners reach more children, the magnitude of these funds and overall investments on the sector have been very little. Of the three sub-categories of ECD centres (registered, unregistered, and Grade R) sampled in this study, the latter was found to have gained the most from the recent increases (albeit small) in funding of ECDs. The study found that a large majority (80%) of preschool practitioners know about funding support offered by the state, however, they were not sure how it was allocated, and how they could access it. Central to the findings of this research report is the turbulent policy environment that the ECD sector has been facing due to uncoordinated interventions which only culminated into a single overarching draft national policy of 2015, which is still under scrutiny. Second to this, are the structural and operational challenges such as inadequate monitoring and evaluation of preschools by government, poor management of financial records by preschools, lack of adequate infrastructure and learning materials, and widespread red tape in registration and application of funds processes.MT201

Effectively responding to persistent barriers impacting on the implementation of inclusive education in South Africa’s schools for learners with special educational needs

HSRC Policy Brief, JanuaryThe aim of this policy brief is to outline and discuss these persistent barriers impacting on the implementation of inclusive education for learners with SEN and provide recommendations towards the effective implementation of this type of education in urban, as well as rural, schools in South Africa.N/

Challenges in early childhood care and education in impoverished rural communities in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa

Thirty years after the abolishment of apartheid in South Africa, socio-economic inequalities persist, resulting in a life of adversity for most young children living in poverty. This is despite the government’s vision for 2030, which recognises the potential of early childhood care and education (ECCE) to alleviate poverty and inequality. Society's most vulnerable members need access to quality ECCE programmes to realise this vision. One of the main aspects of quality in ECCE is a professional workforce, a play-based curriculum, a safe environment, and parent and community partnerships. This article reports on a case study that aims to explore the experiences of ECCE personnel in impoverished and marginalised rural communities in KwaZulu-Natal Province. Data were generated from photographs, written narratives, and semi-structured interviews based on their experiences in rural ECCE centres. Despite recognising ECCE as a critical foundation for the optimal development of children, the findings reveal that numerous challenges plague the centres in these areas. The findings highlight poor infrastructure, nutrition, and service delivery, as well as the intricate interplay between ecological systems and Maslow’s hierarchy of needs in shaping the quality of ECCE for young children. To achieve the goals of the National Development Plan, the study recommends that the government prioritise investment in ECCE programmes and support and collaborate with non-governmental organisations, especially in marginalised areas of KwaZulu-Natal

Exploring the perspectives of health service providers on mental health policy and interventions for school children in the Western Cape, South Africa

Background: Mental health is recognised as a critical public health challenge globally, yet child and adolescent mental health receive low priority, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Children and adolescents spend a significant proportion of their lives in school, suggesting that educational settings are potentially important environments where child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) can be strengthened to improve early identification and treatment. This study explored the perspectives of key service providers on needs, barriers and facilitators of child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS) in schools in the Western Cape province of South Africa. Methods: This study employed an exploratory qualitative approach. In-depth individual interviews were conducted by one of the authors (SM), and the first author (KM) conducted a thematic analysis on the interview data. Results: There were nine interviewees selected who were diverse health service providers involved in child and adolescent health which included school doctors, school nurses, psychiatrists, occupational therapist, clinical nurse and mental health nurse. Thematic findings were grouped under: a) perceived needs, b) barriers and c) facilitators. The need to improve intersectoral collaboration, following a referral pathway, a strong multidisciplinary team (MDT) and integration of services were all identified important in the delivery of CAMHS. The neglect of CAMHS in both education and health sectors and limited resources were identified as barriers. Facilitators included intersectoral collaboration, task shifting from nurses and doctors to community health workers, and committed health workers. Conclusion: CAMHS receives very low priority in comparison to other health issues such as HIV/TB in South Africa. There is an urgent need to address CAMHS in South Africa, and the school setting is an important site of intervention. Intersectoral collaboration, task-shifting, continuous training of teachers and health professionals are potential strategies that could be used to strengthen access to CAMHS in education sector and have integrated services in the Western Cape Province