Washington Meets Wall Street: A Closer Examination of the Presidential Cycle Puzzle

This paper tests the policitcal dimensions of the presidential cycle effect in U.S. financial markets. The presidential cycle effect states that average stock market returns are significantly higher in the last two years compared to the first two years of a presidential term. We confirm the robust existence of this cycle in U.S. stock markets as well as bond markets. As most rational theories to explain the cycle were falsified by earlier empirical work, this paper sets out to test the presidential cycle election (PCE) theory as an alternative explanation. The PCE theory states that incumbent parties and presidents have an incentive to manipulate the economy (via budget expansions, taxes, etc.) to remain in power. We formulate seven different propositions relating to fiscal, monetary, tax, and political implications of PCE theory. We find no statistically significant evidence confirming the PCE theory as a plausible explanation for the presidential cycle effect. The existence of the presidential cycle effect in U.S. financial markets thus remains a puzzle that cannot be easily explained by politicians mis-using their economic influence to remain in power

Narrowband UVB phototherapy for clinically isolated syndrome: A trial to deliver the benefits of Vitamin D and other UVB-Induced molecules

Low vitamin D and insufficient sun exposure are additive independent risk factors for the development of multiple sclerosis (MS). The usual measure of vitamin D status, serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D [25(OH)D], is also a marker of recent exposure to the UVB rays of sunshine. The main evidence for a protective effect for MS development of higher 25(OH)D comes from observational studies, but this study design cannot separate out whether 25(OH)D is acting as a marker of vitamin D status, sun exposure, or both. In light of a lack of definitive outcomes in MS patients after trials of vitamin D supplementation and the ability of narrowband UVB to induce vitamin D, as well as other immune-regulatory molecules in skin, the Phototherapy for Clinically Isolated Syndrome (PhoCIS) trial was established to investigate the benefits of narrowband UVB, in addition to supplemented vitamin D, on MS development in individuals with Clinically Isolated Syndrome. We propose that the PhoCIS trial provides a fresh approach to re-defining the reported associations of 25(OH)D levels with MS development and progression

All-optical ion generation for ion trap loading

We have investigated the all-optical generation of ions by photo-ionisation of atoms generated by pulsed laser ablation. A direct comparison between a resistively heated oven source and pulsed laser ablation is reported. Pulsed laser ablation with 10 ns Nd:YAG laser pulses is shown to produce large calcium flux, corresponding to atomic beams produced with oven temperatures greater than 650 K. For an equivalent atomic flux, pulsed laser ablation is shown to produce a thermal load more than one order of magnitude smaller than the oven source. The atomic beam distributions obey Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics with most probable speeds corresponding to temperatures greater than 2200 K. Below a threshold pulse fluence between 280 mJ/cm^2 and 330 mJ/cm^2, the atomic beam is composed exclusively of ground state atoms. For higher fluences ions and excited atoms are generated.Comment: 7 pages, 9 figure

Background-free detection of trapped ions

We demonstrate a Doppler cooling and detection scheme for ions with low-lying D levels which almost entirely suppresses scattered laser light background, while retaining a high fluorescence signal and efficient cooling. We cool a single ion with a laser on the 2S1/2 to 2P1/2 transition as usual, but repump via the 2P3/2 level. By filtering out light on the cooling transition and detecting only the fluorescence from the 2P_3/2 to 2S1/2 decays, we suppress the scattered laser light background count rate to 1 per second while maintaining a signal of 29000 per second with moderate saturation of the cooling transition. This scheme will be particularly useful for experiments where ions are trapped in close proximity to surfaces, such as the trap electrodes in microfabricated ion traps, which leads to high background scatter from the cooling beam

Higher serum immunoglobulin G3 levels may predict the development of multiple sclerosis in individuals with Clinically Isolated Syndrome

Clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) is a first episode of neurological symptoms that may precede a diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS). Therefore, studying individuals with CIS may lead to breakthroughs in understanding the development and pathogenesis of MS. In this study, serum levels of immunoglobulin (Ig)G, IgA, IgM, and IgG1–4 were measured in 20 people with CIS and compared with those in 10 healthy controls (HC) and 8 people with MS. Serum Ig levels in individuals with CIS were compared with (a) the time to their conversion from CIS to MS, (b) serum levels of antibodies to Epstein–Barr virus, (c) frequencies of T regulatory (Treg), T follicular regulatory (Tfr), and B cell subsets, and (d) Treg/Tfr expression of Helios. Serum IgG, IgM, and IgG2 levels were significantly lower in people with CIS than HC, and IgG, IgM, and IgG1 levels were significantly lower in people with CIS than MS. After adjusting for age, sex, and serum 25(OH) vitamin D3 [25(OH)D] levels, CIS was associated with lower serum levels of IgG and IgG2 compared with HC (p = 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively). People with MS had lower IgG2 levels (p < 0.001) and IgG2 proportions (%IgG; p = 0.007) compared with HC. After adjusting for age, sex, and 25(OH)D, these outcomes remained, in addition to lower serum IgA levels (p = 0.01) and increased IgG3 levels (p = 0.053) in people with MS compared with HC. Furthermore, serum from people with MS had increased proportions of IgG1 and IgG3 (p = 0.03 and p = 0.02, respectively), decreased proportions of IgG2 (p = 0.007), and greater ratios of “upstream” to “downstream” IgG subclasses (p = 0.001) compared with HC. Serum IgG3 proportions (%IgG) from people with CIS correlated with the frequency of plasmablasts in peripheral blood (p = 0.02). Expression of Helios by Treg and Tfr cell subsets from individuals with CIS correlated with levels of serum IgG2 and IgG4. IgG3 levels and proportions of IgG3 (%IgG) in serum at CIS diagnosis were inversely correlated with the time until conversion to MS (p = 0.018 and p < 0.001, respectively), suggesting they may be useful prognostic markers of individuals with CIS who rapidly convert to MS

Compton Scattering on the Deuteron in Baryon Chiral Perturbation Theory

Compton scattering on the deuteron is studied in the framework of baryon chiral perturbation theory to third order in small momenta, for photon energies of order the pion mass. The scattering amplitude is a sum of one- and two-nucleon mechanisms with no undetermined parameters. Our results are in good agreement with existing experimental data, and a prediction is made for higher-energy data being analyzed at SAL.Comment: 39 pages LaTeX, 19 figures (uses epsf

Heating rate and electrode charging measurements in a scalable, microfabricated, surface-electrode ion trap

We characterise the performance of a surface-electrode ion "chip" trap fabricated using established semiconductor integrated circuit and micro-electro-mechanical-system (MEMS) microfabrication processes which are in principle scalable to much larger ion trap arrays, as proposed for implementing ion trap quantum information processing. We measure rf ion micromotion parallel and perpendicular to the plane of the trap electrodes, and find that on-package capacitors reduce this to <~ 10 nm in amplitude. We also measure ion trapping lifetime, charging effects due to laser light incident on the trap electrodes, and the heating rate for a single trapped ion. The performance of this trap is found to be comparable with others of the same size scale.Comment: 6 pages, 10 figure

Photoionisation loading of large Sr+ ion clouds with ultrafast pulses

This paper reports on photoionisation loading based on ultrafast pulses of singly-ionised strontium ions in a linear Paul trap. We take advantage of an autoionising resonance of Sr neutral atoms to form Sr+ by two-photon absorption of femtosecond pulses at a wavelength of 431nm. We compare this technique to electron-bombardment ionisation and observe several advantages of photoionisation. It actually allows the loading of a pure Sr+ ion cloud in a low radio-frequency voltage amplitude regime. In these conditions up to 4x10^4 laser-cooled Sr+ ions were trapped

Efficient photoionization for barium ion trapping using a dipole-allowed resonant two-photon transition

Two efficient and isotope-selective resonant two-photon ionization techniques for loading barium ions into radio-frequency (RF)-traps are demonstrated. The scheme of using a strong dipole-allowed transition at \lambda=553 nm as a first step towards ionization is compared to the established technique of using a weak intercombination line (\lambda=413 nm). An increase of two orders of magnitude in the ionization efficiency is found favoring the transition at 553 nm. This technique can be implemented using commercial all-solid-state laser systems and is expected to be advantageous compared to other narrowband photoionization schemes of barium in cases where highest efficiency and isotope-selectivity are required.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figure

Data for long-term marginal abatement cost curves of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

This dataset represents long-term marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves of all major emission sources of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs); methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6). The work is based on existing short-term MAC curve datasets and recent literature on individual mitigation measures. The data represent a comprehensive set of MAC curves, covering all major non-CO2 emission sources for 26 aggregated world regions. They are suitable for long-term global mitigation scenario development, as dynamical elements (technological progress, removal of implementation barriers) are included. The data is related to the research article: "Long-term marginal abatement cost curves of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases