Evaluating the Population Impact on Racial/Ethnic Disparities in HIV in Adulthood of Intervening on Specific Targets: A Conceptual and Methodological Framework

Reducing racial/ethnic disparities in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease is a high priority. Reductions in HIV racial/ethnic disparities can potentially be achieved by intervening on important intermediate factors. The potential population impact of intervening on intermediates can be evaluated using observational data when certain conditions are met. However, using standard stratification-based approaches commonly employed in the observational HIV literature to estimate the potential population impact in this setting may yield results that do not accurately estimate quantities of interest. Here we describe a useful conceptual and methodological framework for using observational data to appropriately evaluate the impact on HIV racial/ethnic disparities of interventions. This framework reframes relevant scientific questions in terms of a controlled direct effect and estimates a corresponding proportion eliminated. We review methods and conditions sufficient for accurate estimation within the proposed framework. We use the framework to analyze data on 2,329 participants in the CFAR [Centers for AIDS Research] Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (2008-2014) to evaluate the potential impact of universal prescription of and ≥95% adherence to antiretroviral therapy on racial disparities in HIV virological suppression. We encourage the use of the described framework to appropriately evaluate the potential impact of targeted interventions in addressing HIV racial/ethnic disparities using observational data

Cumulative Human Immunodeficiency Viremia, Antiretroviral Therapy, and Incident Myocardial Infarction

Background: People living with HIV are at risk of increased myocardial infarction (MI). Cumulative HIV viral load (VL) has been proposed as a better measure of HIV inflammation than other measures of VL, like baseline VL, but its associations with MI are not known. Methods: The multisite Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort includes clinical data and centrally adjudicated MI with distinction between atheroembolic MI (type 1) and MI related to supply-demand mismatch (type 2). We examined CNICS participants who were not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at enrollment. Cumulative VL (copy-days of virus) from 6 months after enrollment was estimated with a time-weighted sum using the trapezoidal rule. We modeled associations of cumulative and baseline VL with MI by type using marginal structural Cox models. We contrasted the 75% percentile of the VL distribution with the 25% percentile. Results: Among 11,324 participants, 218 MIs occurred between 1996 and 2016. Higher cumulative VL was associated with risk of all MI (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.72; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.26, 2.36), type 1 MI (HR = 1.23; 95% CI = 0.78, 1.96), and type 2 MI (HR = 2.52; 95% CI = 1.74, 3.66). While off ART, cumulative VL had a stronger association with type 1 MI (HR = 2.13; 95% CI = 1.15, 3.94) than type 2 MI (HR = 1.25; 95% CI = 0.70, 2.25). Baseline VL was associated with all MI (HR = 1.60; 95% CI = 1.28, 2.01), type 1 MI (HR = 1.73; 95% CI = 1.26, 2.38), and type 2 MI (HR = 1.51; 95% CI = 1.10, 2.08). Conclusions: Higher cumulative and baseline VL is associated with all MI, with a particularly strong association between cumulative VL and type 2 MI

Recent abacavir use increases risk of type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarctions among adults with HIV

Background: There is persistent confusion as to whether abacavir (ABC) increases the risk of myocardial infarction (MI), and whether such risk differs by type 1 (T1MI) or 2 (T2MI) MI in adults with HIV. Methods: Incident MIs in North American Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design participants were identified from 2001 to 2013. Discrete time marginal structural models addressed channeling biases and time-dependent confounding to estimate crude hazard ratio (HR) and adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals; analyses were performed for T1MI and T2MI separately. A sensitivity analysis evaluated whether Framingham risk score (FRS) modified the effect of ABC on MI occurrence. Results: Eight thousand two hundred sixty-five adults who initiated antiretroviral therapy contributed 29,077 person-years and 123 MI events (65 T1MI and 58 T2MI). Median follow-up time was 2.9 (interquartile range 1.4-5.1) years. ABC initiators were more likely to have a history of injection drug use, hepatitis C virus infection, hypertension, diabetes, impaired kidney function, hyperlipidemia, low (,200 cells/mm3) CD4 counts, and a history of AIDS. The risk of the combined MI outcome was greater for persons who used ABC in the previous 6 months [aHR = 1.84 (1.17-2.91)]; and persisted for T1MI (aHR = 1.62 [1.01]) and T2MI [aHR = 2.11 (1.08-4.29)]. FRS did not modify the effect of ABC on MI (P = 0.14) and inclusion of FRS in the MSM did not diminish the effect of recent ABC use on the combined outcome. Conclusions: Recent ABC use was associated with MI after adjustment for known risk factors and for FRS. However, screening for T1MI risks may not identify all or even most persons at risk of ABC use-associated MIs

Associations between At-Risk Alcohol Use, Substance Use, and Smoking with Lipohypertrophy and Lipoatrophy among Patients Living with HIV

To examine associations between lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy and illicit drug use, smoking, and at-risk alcohol use among a large diverse cohort of persons living with HIV (PLWH) in clinical care. 7,931 PLWH at six sites across the United States completed 21,279 clinical assessments, including lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy, drug/alcohol use, physical activity level, and smoking. Lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy were measured using the FRAM body morphology instrument and associations were assessed with generalized estimating equations. Lipohypertrophy (33% mild, 4% moderate-to-severe) and lipoatrophy (20% mild, 3% moderate-to-severe) were common. Older age, male sex, and higher current CD4 count were associated with more severe lipohypertrophy (p values <.001-.03). Prior methamphetamine or marijuana use, and prior and current cocaine use, were associated with more severe lipohypertrophy (p values <.001-.009). Older age, detectable viral load, and low current CD4 cell counts were associated with more severe lipoatrophy (p values <.001-.003). In addition, current smoking and marijuana and opiate use were associated with more severe lipoatrophy (p values <.001-.03). Patients with very low physical activity levels had more severe lipohypertrophy and also more severe lipoatrophy than those with all other activity levels (p values <.001). For example, the lipohypertrophy score of those reporting high levels of physical activity was on average 1.6 points lower than those reporting very low levels of physical activity (-1.6, 95% CI:-1.8 to-1.4, p <.001). We found a high prevalence of lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy among a nationally distributed cohort of PLWH. While low levels of physical activity were associated with both lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy, associations with substance use and other clinical characteristics differed between lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy. These results support the conclusion that lipohypertrophy and lipoatrophy are distinct, and highlight differential associations with specific illicit drug use

Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease in HIV-Positive Potential Live Kidney Donors

New federal regulations allow HIV-positive individuals to be live kidney donors; however, potential candidacy for donation is poorly understood given the increased risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) associated with HIV infection. To better understand this risk, we compared the incidence of ESRD among 41 968 HIV-positive participants of North America AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design followed for a median of 5 years with the incidence of ESRD among comparable HIV-negative participants of National Health and Nutrition Examination III followed for a median of 14 years. We used risk associations from multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression to derive cumulative incidence estimates for selected HIV-positive scenarios (no history of diabetes, hypertension, AIDS, or hepatitis C virus coinfection) and compared these estimates with those from similarly selected HIV-negative scenarios. For 40-year-old HIV-positive individuals with health characteristics that were similar to those of age-matched kidney donors, viral load &lt;400 copies/mL, and CD4+ count ≥500 cells/μL, the 9-year cumulative incidence of ESRD was higher than that of their HIV-negative peers, yet still low: 2.5 versus 1.1 per 10 000 among white women, 3.0 versus 1.3 per 10 000 among white men, 13.2 versus 3.6 per 10 000 among black women, and 15.8 versus 4.4 per 10 000 among black men. HIV-positive individuals with no comorbidities and well-controlled disease may be considered low-risk kidney donor candidates

Prevalence and Factors Associated with Hazardous Alcohol Use Among Persons Living with HIV Across the US in the Current Era of Antiretroviral Treatment

Hazardous alcohol use is associated with detrimental health outcomes among persons living with HIV (PLWH). We examined the prevalence and factors associated with hazardous alcohol use in the current era using several hazardous drinking definitions and binge drinking defined as ≥5 drinks for men versus ≥4 for women. We included 8567 PLWH from 7 U.S. sites from 2013 to 2015. Current hazardous alcohol use was reported by 27% and 34% reported binge drinking. In adjusted analyses, current and past cocaine/crack (odd ratio [OR] 4.1:3.3–5.1, p < 0.001 and OR 1.3:1.1–1.5, p < 0.001 respectively), marijuana (OR 2.5:2.2–2.9, p < 0.001 and OR 1.4:1.2–1.6, p < 0.001), and cigarette use (OR 1.4:1.2–1.6, p < 0.001 and OR 1.3:1.2–1.5, p < 0.001) were associated with increased hazardous alcohol use. The prevalence of hazardous alcohol use remains high in the current era, particularly among younger men. Routine screening and targeted interventions for hazardous alcohol use, potentially bundled with interventions for other drugs, remain a key aspect of HIV care

Association Between Bilirubin, Atazanavir, and Cardiovascular Disease Events Among People Living With HIV Across the United States

Objective: Bilirubin is an antioxidant that may suppress lipid oxidation. Elevated bilirubin is associated with decreased cardiovascular events in HIV-uninfected populations. We examined these associations in people living with HIV (PLWH). Methods: Potential myocardial infarctions (MIs) and strokes were centrally adjudicated. We examined MI types: type 1 MI (T1MI) from atherosclerotic plaque instability and type 2 MI (T2MI) in the setting of oxygen demand/supply mismatch such as sepsis. We used multivariable Cox regression analyses to determine associations between total bilirubin levels and outcomes adjusting for traditional and HIV-specific risk factors. To minimize confounding by hepatobiliary disease, we conducted analyses limited to bilirubin values <2.1 mg/dL; among those with fibrosis-4 values <3.25; and among everyone. We repeated analyses stratified by hepatitis C status and time-updated atazanavir use. Results: Among 25,816 PLWH, there were 392 T1MI and 356 T2MI during follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios for the association of higher bilirubin levels with T1MI were not significant. Higher bilirubin levels were associated with T2MI. By contrast, among PLWH on atazanavir, higher bilirubin levels were associated with fewer T2MI (hazard ratio 0.56:0.33-1.00). Higher bilirubin levels among those on atazanavir were associated with fewer T1MI combined with ischemic stroke. Limitations: Analyses were conducted with total rather than unconjugated bilirubin. Conclusions: Among PLWH, higher bilirubin levels were associated with T2MI among some subgroups. However, among those on atazanavir, there was a protective association between bilirubin and T2MI. These findings demonstrate different associations between outcomes and elevated bilirubin due to diverse causes and the importance of distinguishing MI types

Emulating a trial of joint dynamic strategies: An application to monitoring and treatment of HIV-positive individuals

Decisions about when to start or switch a therapy often depend on the frequency with which individuals are monitored or tested. For example, the optimal time to switch antiretroviral therapy depends on the frequency with which HIV-positive individuals have HIV RNA measured. This paper describes an approach to use observational data for the comparison of joint monitoring and treatment strategies and applies the method to a clinically relevant question in HIV research: when can monitoring frequency be decreased and when should individuals switch from a first-line treatment regimen to a new regimen?. We outline the target trial that would compare the dynamic strategies of interest and then describe how to emulate it using data from HIV-positive individuals included in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems. When, as in our example, few individuals follow the dynamic strategies of interest over long periods of follow-up, we describe how to leverage an additional assumption: no direct effect of monitoring on the outcome of interest. We compare our results with and without the “no direct effect†assumption. We found little differences on survival and AIDS-free survival between strategies where monitoring frequency was decreased at a CD4 threshold of 350 cells/μl compared with 500 cells/μl and where treatment was switched at an HIV-RNA threshold of 1000 copies/ml compared with 200 copies/ml. The “no direct effect†assumption resulted in efficiency improvements for the risk difference estimates ranging from an 7- to 53-fold increase in the effective sample size

Association of Immunosuppression and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Viremia with Anal Cancer Risk in Persons Living with HIV in the United States and Canada

Background: People living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) have a markedly elevated anal cancer risk, largely due to loss of immunoregulatory control of oncogenic human papillomavirus infection. To better understand anal cancer development and prevention, we determined whether recent, past, cumulative, or nadir/peak CD4+ T-cell count (CD4) and/or HIV-1 RNA level (HIV RNA) best predict anal cancer risk. Methods: We studied 102 777 PLWH during 1996-2014 from 21 cohorts participating in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Using demographics-adjusted, cohort-stratified Cox models, we assessed associations between anal cancer risk and various time-updated CD4 and HIV RNA measures, including cumulative and nadir/peak measures during prespecified moving time windows. We compared models using the Akaike information criterion. Results: Cumulative and nadir/peak CD4 or HIV RNA measures from approximately 8.5 to 4.5 years in the past were generally better predictors for anal cancer risk than their corresponding more recent measures. However, the best model included CD4 nadir (ie, the lowest CD4) from approximately 8.5 years to 6 months in the past (hazard ratio [HR] for <50 vs ≥500 cells/μL, 13.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.5-51.0) and proportion of time CD4 <200 cells/μL from approximately 8.5 to 4.5 years in the past (a cumulative measure; HR for 100% vs 0%, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.5-6.6). Conclusions: Our results are consistent with anal cancer promotion by severe, prolonged HIV-induced immunosuppression. Nadir and cumulative CD4 may represent useful markers for identifying PLWH at higher anal cancer risk