A Bayesian Modelling of Wildfires in Portugal

In the last decade wildfires became a serious problem in Portugal due to different issues such as climatic characteristics and nature of Portuguese forest. In order to analyse wildfire data, we employ beta regression for modelling the proportion of burned forest area, under a Bayesian perspective. Our main goal is to find out fire risk factors that influence the proportion of area burned and what may make a forest type susceptible or resistant to fire. Then, we analyse wildfire data in Portugal during 1990-1994 through Bayesian beta models t

High speed synchrotron X-ray imaging studies of the ultrasound shockwave and enhanced flow during metal solidification processes

The highly dynamic behaviour of ultrasonic bubble implosion in liquid metal, the multiphase liquid metal flow containing bubbles and particles, and the interaction between ultrasonic waves and semisolid phases during solidification of metal were studied in situ using the complementary ultrafast and high speed synchrotron X-ray imaging facilities housed respectively at the Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory, US, and Diamond Light Source, UK. Real-time ultrafast X-ray imaging of 135,780 frames per second (fps) revealed that ultrasonic bubble implosion in a liquid Bi-8 wt. %Zn alloy can occur in a single wave period (30 kHz), and the effective region affected by the shockwave at implosion was 3.5 times the original bubble diameter. Furthermore, ultrasound bubbles in liquid metal move faster than the primary particles, and the velocity of bubbles is 70 ~ 100% higher than that of the primary particles present in the same locations close to the sonotrode. Ultrasound waves can very effectively create a strong swirling flow in a semisolid melt in less than one second. The energetic flow can detach solid particles from the liquid-solid interface and redistribute them back into the bulk liquid very effectively

Can forest management based on natural disturbances maintain ecological resilience?

Given the increasingly global stresses on forests, many ecologists argue that managers must maintain ecological resilience: the capacity of ecosystems to absorb disturbances without undergoing fundamental change. In this review we ask: Can the emerging paradigm of natural-disturbance-based management (NDBM) maintain ecological resilience in managed forests? Applying resilience theory requires careful articulation of the ecosystem state under consideration, the disturbances and stresses that affect the persistence of possible alternative states, and the spatial and temporal scales of management relevance. Implementing NDBM while maintaining resilience means recognizing that (i) biodiversity is important for long-term ecosystem persistence, (ii) natural disturbances play a critical role as a generator of structural and compositional heterogeneity at multiple scales, and (iii) traditional management tends to produce forests more homogeneous than those disturbed naturally and increases the likelihood of unexpected catastrophic change by constraining variation of key environmental processes. NDBM may maintain resilience if silvicultural strategies retain the structures and processes that perpetuate desired states while reducing those that enhance resilience of undesirable states. Such strategies require an understanding of harvesting impacts on slow ecosystem processes, such as seed-bank or nutrient dynamics, which in the long term can lead to ecological surprises by altering the forest's capacity to reorganize after disturbance