Effect of intraoperative fluid optimisation on renal function in patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery; a randomised controlled pilot study (ISRCTN 11799696) Fluid optimisation for emergency surgery

<b>Background:</b> Emergency abdominal surgery carries a high risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality. Goal directed therapy has been advocated to improve outcome in high-risk surgery. The aim of the present pilot study was to examine the effect of goal directed therapy using fluid alone on postoperative renal function and organ failure score in patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. <b>Methods:</b> This prospective randomised pilot study included patients over the age of 50 undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. In the intervention group pulse pressure variation measurements were used to guide fluid boluses of 6% Hydroxyethylstarch 130/0.4. The control group received standard care. Serum urea, creatinine and cystatin C levels were measured prior to and at the end of surgery and postoperatively on day 1, day 3 and day 5. <b>Results:</b> Thirty patients were recruited. One patient died prior to surgery and was excluded from the analysis. The intervention group received a median of 750ml of hydroxyethylstarch. The peak values of postoperative urea were 6.9 (2.7–31.8) vs. 6.4 (3.5–11.5)mmol/l (p=0.425), creatinine 100 (60–300) vs. 85 (65–150) μmol/l (p=0.085) and cystatin C 1.09 (0.66–4.94) vs. 1.01 (0.33–2.29)mg/dl (p=0.352) in the control and intervention group, respectively. <b>Conclusions:</b> In the present pilot study replacing the identified fluid deficit was not associated with a change in renal function. These results do not preclude that goal directed therapy using fluid alone may have an effect on renal function but they would suggest that the effect size of fluid optimisation alone on renal function is small

The Glasgow Microenvironment Score and risk and site of recurrence in TNM I–III colorectal cancer

Background: Glasgow Microenvironment Score (GMS) stratifies long-term survival into three groups based on tumour phenotype: peritumoural inflammation (Klintrup–Mäkinen (KM)) and tumour stroma percentage (TSP). However, it is not known if the location of disease recurrence is influenced by the GMS category. Methods: Seven hundred and eighty-three TNM I–III colorectal cancers (CRC) were included. GMS (GMS0—high KM; GMS1—low KM, low TSP; GMS2—low KM, high TSP) and cancer-specific survival (CSS), overall survival (OS) and disease recurrence were assessed using Cox regression analysis. Results: Of the 783 patients, 221 developed CRC recurrence; 65 developed local recurrence + systemic disease. GMS was independent for CSS (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.17–1.92, p < 0.001) and OS (HR 1.23, 1.05–1.44, p = 0.01). Higher GMS category was associated with T-stage, N-stage, emergency presentation and venous invasion. GMS was independent for local+systemic recurrence (HR 11.53, 95% CI 1.45–91.85, p = 0.04) and distant-only recurrence (HR 3.01, 95% CI 1.59–5.71, p = 0.002). GMS 2 disease did not appear to have statistically better outcomes with adjuvant chemotherapy in high-risk disease. Conclusion: Although confounded by a higher rate of T4 and node-positive disease, GMS 1 and 2 are associated with an increased risk of local and distant recurrence. GMS is an independent poor prognostic indicator for recurrent colorectal cancer. Higher GMS patients may benefit from enhanced postoperative surveillance

Spin Susceptibility and Superexchange Interaction in the Antiferromagnet CuO

Evidence for the quasi one-dimensional (1D) antiferromagnetism of CuO is presented in a framework of Heisenberg model. We have obtained an experimental absolute value of the paramagnetic spin susceptibility of CuO by subtracting the orbital susceptibility separately from the total susceptibility through the $^{63}$Cu NMR shift measurement, and compared directly with the theoretical predictions. The result is best described by a 1D $S=1/2$ antiferromagnetic Heisenberg (AFH) model, supporting the speculation invoked by earlier authors. We also present a semi-quantitative reason why CuO, seemingly of 3D structure, is unexpectedly a quasi 1D antiferromagnet.Comment: 7 pages including 4 tables and 9 figure

The Glasgow Microenvironment Score associates with prognosis and adjuvant chemotherapy response in colorectal cancer

Background: The Glasgow Microenvironment Score (GMS) combines peritumoural inflammation and tumour stroma percentage to assess interactions between tumour and microenvironment. This was previously demonstrated to associate with colorectal cancer (CRC) prognosis, and now requires validation and assessment of interactions with adjuvant therapy. Methods: Two cohorts were utilised; 862 TNM I–III CRC validation cohort, and 2912 TNM II–III CRC adjuvant chemotherapy cohort (TransSCOT). Primary endpoints were disease-free survival (DFS) and relapse-free survival (RFS). Exploratory endpoint was adjuvant chemotherapy interaction. Results: GMS independently associated with DFS (p = 0.001) and RFS (p < 0.001). GMS significantly stratified RFS for both low risk (GMS 0 v GMS 2: HR 3.24 95% CI 1.85–5.68, p < 0.001) and high-risk disease (GMS 0 v GMS 2: HR 2.18 95% CI 1.39–3.41, p = 0.001). In TransSCOT, chemotherapy type (pinteraction = 0.013), but not duration (p = 0.64) was dependent on GMS. Furthermore, GMS 0 significantly associated with improved DFS in patients receiving FOLFOX compared with CAPOX (HR 2.23 95% CI 1.19–4.16, p = 0.012). Conclusions: This study validates the GMS as a prognostic tool for patients with stage I–III colorectal cancer, independent of TNM, with the ability to stratify both low- and high-risk disease. Furthermore, GMS 0 could be employed to identify a subset of patients that benefit from FOLFOX over CAPOX

The Global Burden of Cancer 2013

IMPORTANCE: Cancer is among the leading causes of death worldwide. Current estimates of cancer burden in individual countries and regions are necessary to inform local cancer control strategies. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 28 cancers in 188 countries by sex from 1990 to 2013. EVIDENCE REVIEW: The general methodology of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study was used. Cancer registries were the source for cancer incidence data as well as mortality incidence (MI) ratios. Sources for cause of death data include vital registration system data, verbal autopsy studies, and other sources. The MI ratios were used to transform incidence data to mortality estimates and cause of death estimates to incidence estimates. Cancer prevalence was estimated using MI ratios as surrogates for survival data; YLDs were calculated by multiplying prevalence estimates with disability weights, which were derived from population-based surveys; YLLs were computed by multiplying the number of estimated cancer deaths at each age with a reference life expectancy; and DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. FINDINGS: In 2013 there were 14.9 million incident cancer cases, 8.2 million deaths, and 196.3 million DALYs. Prostate cancer was the leading cause for cancer incidence (1.4 million) for men and breast cancer for women (1.8 million). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer was the leading cause for cancer death in men and women, with 1.6 million deaths. For men, TBL cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (24.9 million). For women, breast cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (13.1 million). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100 000 and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) per 100 000 for both sexes in 2013 were higher in developing vs developed countries for stomach cancer (ASIR, 17 vs 14; ASDR, 15 vs 11), liver cancer (ASIR, 15 vs 7; ASDR, 16 vs 7), esophageal cancer (ASIR, 9 vs 4; ASDR, 9 vs 4), cervical cancer (ASIR, 8 vs 5; ASDR, 4 vs 2), lip and oral cavity cancer (ASIR, 7 vs 6; ASDR, 2 vs 2), and nasopharyngeal cancer (ASIR, 1.5 vs 0.4; ASDR, 1.2 vs 0.3). Between 1990 and 2013, ASIRs for all cancers combined (except nonmelanoma skin cancer and Kaposi sarcoma) increased by more than 10 in 113 countries and decreased by more than 10 in 12 of 188 countries. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Cancer poses a major threat to public health worldwide, and incidence rates have increased in most countries since 1990. The trend is a particular threat to developing nations with health systems that are ill-equipped to deal with complex and expensive cancer treatments. The annual update on the Global Burden of Cancer will provide all stakeholders with timely estimates to guide policy efforts in cancer prevention, screening, treatment, and palliation. Copyright 2015 American Medical Association. All rights reserved

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential

Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries

Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0�59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3�5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization�s median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99 of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40 and wasting to less than 5 by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications. © 2020, The Author(s)

The burden of unintentional drowning: Global, regional and national estimates of mortality from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

__Background:__ Drowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study's objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017. __Methods:__ Unintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning. __Results:__ Globally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes. __Conclusions:__ There has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low-and middle-income countries