Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections

While population forecasters place considerable emphasis on the selection of appropriate migration assumptions, surprisingly little attention has been given to the effects on projection outcomes of the way internal migration is handled within population projection models. This paper compares population projections for Australia's states and territories prepared using ten different internal migration models but with identical assumptions for fertility, mortality and international migration and with the internal migration model parameters held constant. It is shown that the choice of migration model generates large differences in total population, geographical distribution and age--sex composition. It is argued that model choice should be guided by balancing model reality with practical utility and model performance is examined against these criteria. Of the ten models evaluated the authors argue that the migration pool, biregional, and biregional with net constraints models offer a good compromise between conceptual rigour and practicality. If the projected origin-destination flows are required then one of the versions of the standard multiregional model with reduced data inputs is preferred. The large variation in projection outputs points to the need for a better understanding of the spatio-temporal structure of migration in Australia

Orbital Observations of Dust Lofted by Daytime Convective Turbulence

Over the past several decades, orbital observations of lofted dust have revealed the importance of mineral aerosols as a climate forcing mechanism on both Earth and Mars. Increasingly detailed and diverse data sets have provided an ever-improving understanding of dust sources, transport pathways, and sinks on both planets, but the role of dust in modulating atmospheric processes is complex and not always well understood. We present a review of orbital observations of entrained dust on Earth and Mars, particularly that produced by the dust-laden structures produced by daytime convective turbulence called “dust devils”. On Earth, dust devils are thought to contribute only a small fraction of the atmospheric dust budget; accordingly, there are not yet any published accounts of their occurrence from orbit. In contrast, dust devils on Mars are thought to account for several tens of percent of the planet’s atmospheric dust budget; the literature regarding martian dust devils is quite rich. Because terrestrial dust devils may temporarily contribute significantly to local dust loading and lowered air quality, we suggest that martian dust devil studies may inform future studies of convectively-lofted dust on Earth

Exodus from the California Core: Using Demographic Effectiveness and Migration Impact Measures to Examine Population Redistribution Within the Western United States

Demographic effectiveness, Inward population redistribution, Migration impact, Urban hierarchy,