Potential population-level nutritional impact of replacing whole and reduced-fat milk with low-fat and skim milk among US children aged 2-19 years.

OBJECTIVE: Dietary guidance emphasizes plain low-fat and skim milk over whole, reduced-fat, and flavored milk (milk eligible for replacement [MER]). The objective of this study was to evaluate the population-level impact of such a change on energy, macronutrient and nutrient intakes, and diet cost. DESIGN: Cross-sectional modeling study. SETTING: Data from the 2001-2002 and 2003-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 8,112 children aged 2-19 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Energy, macronutrient, and micronutrient intake before and after replacement of MER with low-fat or skim milk. ANALYSIS: Survey-weighted linear regression models. RESULTS: Milk eligible for replacement accounted for 46% of dairy servings. Among MER consumers, replacement with skim or low-fat milk would lead to a projected reduction in energy of 113 (95% confidence interval [CI], 107-119) and 77 (95% CI, 73-82) kcal/d and percent energy from saturated fat by an absolute value of 2.5% of total energy (95% CI, 2.4-2.6) and 1.4% (95% CI, 1.3-1.5), respectively. Replacement of MER does not change diet costs or calcium and potassium intake. CONCLUSIONS: Substitution of MER has the potential to reduce energy and total and saturated fat intake with no impact on diet costs or micronutrient density. The feasibility of such replacement has not been examined and there may be negative consequences if replacement is done with non-nutrient-rich beverages.This research was commissioned by the RobertWood Johnson Foundation through its Healthy Eating Research program. Additional support for this project came from National Institutes of Health grant R21 DK085406. Pablo Monsivais also received support from the Centre for Diet and Activity Research, a United Kingdom Clinical Research Collaboration Public Health Research Centre of Excellence funded by the British Heart Foundation, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research, and the Wellcome Trust.This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1499404614007556#

Water and beverage consumption among children age 4-13y in the United States: analyses of 2005–2010 NHANES data

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined water consumption patterns among US children. Additionally, recent data on total water consumption as it relates to the Dietary Reference Intakes (DRI) are lacking. This study evaluated the consumption of plain water (tap and bottled) and other beverages among US children by age group, gender, income-to-poverty ratio, and race/ethnicity. Comparisons were made to DRI values for water consumption from all sources. METHODS: Data from two non-consecutive 24-hour recalls from 3 cycles of NHANES (2005–2006, 2007–2008 and 2009–2010) were used to assess water and beverage consumption among 4,766 children age 4-13y. Beverages were classified into 9 groups: water (tap and bottled), plain and flavored milk, 100% fruit juice, soda/soft drinks (regular and diet), fruit drinks, sports drinks, coffee, tea, and energy drinks. Total water intakes from plain water, beverages, and food were compared to DRIs for the US. Total water volume per 1,000 kcal was also examined. RESULTS: Water and other beverages contributed 70-75% of dietary water, with 25-30% provided by moisture in foods, depending on age. Plain water, tap and bottled, contributed 25-30% of total dietary water. In general, tap water represented 60% of drinking water volume whereas bottled water represented 40%. Non-Hispanic white children consumed the most tap water, whereas Mexican-American children consumed the most bottled water. Plain water consumption (bottled and tap) tended to be associated with higher incomes. No group of US children came close to satisfying the DRIs for water. At least 75% of children 4-8y, 87% of girls 9-13y, and 85% of boys 9-13y did not meet DRIs for total water intake. Water volume per 1,000 kcal, another criterion of adequate hydration, was 0.85-0.95 L/1,000 kcal, short of the desirable levels of 1.0-1.5 L/1,000 kcal. CONCLUSIONS: Water intakes at below-recommended levels may be a cause for concern. Data on water and beverage intake for the population and by socio-demographic group provides useful information to target interventions for increasing water intake among children

Estimating uncertainty of alcohol-attributable fractions for infectious and chronic diseases

Background: Alcohol is a major risk factor for burden of disease and injuries globally. This paper presents a systematic method to compute the 95% confidence intervals of alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) with exposure and risk relations stemming from different sources.Methods: The computation was based on previous work done on modelling drinking prevalence using the gamma distribution and the inherent properties of this distribution. The Monte Carlo approach was applied to derive the variance for each AAF by generating random sets of all the parameters. A large number of random samples were thus created for each AAF to estimate variances. The derivation of the distributions of the different parameters is presented as well as sensitivity analyses which give an estimation of the number of samples required to determine the variance with predetermined precision, and to determine which parameter had the most impact on the variance of the AAFs.Results: The analysis of the five Asian regions showed that 150 000 samples gave a sufficiently accurate estimation of the 95% confidence intervals for each disease. The relative risk functions accounted for most of the variance in the majority of cases.Conclusions: Within reasonable computation time, the method yielded very accurate values for variances of AAFs

Combining best evidence: A novel method to calculate the alcohol-attributable fraction and its variance for injury mortality

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The alcohol-attributable fraction for injury mortality is defined as the proportion of fatal injury that would disappear if consumption went to zero. Estimating this fraction has previously been based on a simplistic view of drinking and associated risk. This paper develops a new way to calculate the alcohol-attributable fraction for injury based on different dimensions of drinking, mortality data, experimental data, survey research, new risk scenarios, and by incorporating different distributions of consumption within populations. For this analysis, the Canadian population in 2005 was used as the reference population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Binge drinking and average daily consumption were modeled separately with respect to the calculation of the AAF. The acute consumption risk was calculated with a probability-based method that accounted for both the number of binge drinking occasions and the amount of alcohol consumed per occasion. The average daily consumption was computed based on the prevalence of daily drinking at various levels. These were both combined to get an overall estimate. 3 sensitivity analyses were performed using different alcohol consumption parameters to test the robustness of the model. Calculation of the variance to generate confidence limits around the point estimates was accomplished via Monte Carlo resampling methods on randomly generated AAFs that were based on the distribution and prevalence of drinking in the Canadian population.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, the AAFs decrease with age and are significantly lower for women than men across all ages. As binge drinking increases, the injury mortality AAF also increases. Motor vehicle collisions show the largest relative increases in AAF as alcohol consumption is increased, with over a 100% increase in AAF from the lowest to highest consumption category. Among non-motor vehicle collisions, the largest change in total AAF occurred both for homicide and other intentional injuries at about a 15% increase in the AAF from the lowest to the highest binge consumption scenarios.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This method combines the best available evidence to generate new alcohol-attributable fractions for alcohol-attributable injury mortality. Future research is needed to refine the risk function for non-motor vehicle injury types and to investigate potential interactions between binge drinking and average volume of alcohol consumption.</p

Fusion-Fission of 16O+197Au at Sub-Barrier Energies

The recent discovery of heavy-ion fusion hindrance at far sub-barrier energies has focused much attention on both experimental and theoretical studies of this phenomenon. Most of the experimental evidence comes from medium-heavy systems such as Ni+Ni to Zr+Zr, for which the compound system decays primarily by charged-particle evaporation. In order to study heavier systems, it is, however, necessary to measure also the fraction of the decay that goes into fission fragments. In the present work we have, therefore, measured the fission cross section of 16O+197Au down to unprecedented far sub-barrier energies using a large position sensitive PPAC placed at backward angles. The preliminary cross sections will be discussed and compared to earlier studies at near-barrier energies. No conclusive evidence for sub-barrier hindrance was found, probably because the measurements were not extended to sufficiently low energies.Comment: Fusion06 - Intl. Conf. on Reaction Mechanisms and Nuclear Structure at the Coulomb Barrier, San Servolo, Venezia, Italy, March 19-223, 2006 5 pages, 4 figure

Coupled-Channels Approach for Dissipative Quantum Dynamics in Near-Barrier Collisions

A novel quantum dynamical model based on the dissipative quantum dynamics of open quantum systems is presented. It allows the treatment of both deep-inelastic processes and quantum tunneling (fusion) within a fully quantum mechanical coupled-channels approach. Model calculations show the transition from pure state (coherent) to mixed state (decoherent and dissipative) dynamics during a near-barrier nuclear collision. Energy dissipation, due to irreversible decay of giant-dipole excitations of the interacting nuclei, results in hindrance of quantum tunneling.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, Invited talk by A. Diaz-Torres at the FUSION08 Conference, Chicago, September 22-26, 2008, To appear in AIP Conference Proceeding

Determining the best population-level alcohol consumption model and its impact on estimates of alcohol-attributable harms

BACKGROUND: The goals of our study are to determine the most appropriate model for alcohol consumption as an exposure for burden of disease, to analyze the effect of the chosen alcohol consumption distribution on the estimation of the alcohol Population- Attributable Fractions (PAFs), and to characterize the chosen alcohol consumption distribution by exploring if there is a global relationship within the distribution. METHODS: To identify the best model, the Log-Normal, Gamma, and Weibull prevalence distributions were examined using data from 41 surveys from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study (GENACIS) and from the European Comparative Alcohol Study. To assess the effect of these distributions on the estimated alcohol PAFs, we calculated the alcohol PAF for diabetes, breast cancer, and pancreatitis using the three above-named distributions and using the more traditional approach based on categories. The relationship between the mean and the standard deviation from the Gamma distribution was estimated using data from 851 datasets for 66 countries from GENACIS and from the STEPwise approach to Surveillance from the World Health Organization. RESULTS: The Log-Normal distribution provided a poor fit for the survey data, with Gamma and Weibull distributions providing better fits. Additionally, our analyses showed that there were no marked differences for the alcohol PAF estimates based on the Gamma or Weibull distributions compared to PAFs based on categorical alcohol consumption estimates. The standard deviation of the alcohol distribution was highly dependent on the mean, with a unit increase in alcohol consumption associated with a unit increase in the mean of 1.258 (95% CI: 1.223 to 1.293) (R2 = 0.9207) for women and 1.171 (95% CI: 1.144 to 1.197) (R2 = 0. 9474) for men. CONCLUSIONS: Although the Gamma distribution and the Weibull distribution provided similar results, the Gamma distribution is recommended to model alcohol consumption from population surveys due to its fit, flexibility, and the ease with which it can be modified. The results showed that a large degree of variance of the standard deviation of the alcohol consumption Gamma distribution was explained by the mean alcohol consumption, allowing for alcohol consumption to be modeled through a Gamma distribution using only average consumption