Capital Fixity and Mobility in Response to the 2008-09 Crisis: Variegated Neoliberalism in Mexico and Turkey

The article examines the 2008-9 crisis responses in Mexico and Turkey as examples of variegated neoliberalism. The simultaneous interests of corporations and banks relative to the national fixing of capital and their mobility in the form of global investment heavily influenced each state authority’s policy responses to the crisis at the expense of the interests of the poor, workers, and peasantry. Rather than pitching this as either evidence of persistent national differentiation or some Keynesian state resurgence, we argue from a historical materialist geographical framework that the responses of capital and state authorities in Mexico and Turkey actively constitute and reconstitute the global parameters of market regulatory design and neoliberal class rule through each state’s distinct domestic policy formation and crisis management processes. While differing in specific content the form of Mexico and Turkey’s state responses to the crisis ensured continuity in their foregoing neoliberal strategies of development and capital accumulation, most notably in the continued oppression of workers. That is, the prevailing strategy of accumulation continues to be variegated neoliberalism

Rethinking Capital Flows for Emerging East Asia

Since the 1980s, emerging countries have been urged to welcome foreign capital inflows. The result has often been a pattern of surges, where excessive inflows were followed by damaging "sudden stops" and reversals. This was dramatically evident in the Asian crisis of 1997 - 1998. Since that crisis, the emerging countries of East Asia have typically run current account surpluses and have accumulated substantial foreign exchange reserves. This has kept them largely protected from the impact of volatile capital flows, but this strategy is neither sustainable nor optimal. What is needed is a strategy that makes use of the potential benefits of capital "flowing downhill" (that would require these countries to run current account deficits) while at the same time protecting them from both the excessive inflows and the reversals. This strategy needs to take account not only of the fickle nature of the capital flows, but the structurally-higher profitability which is characteristic of emerging countries, which motivates the excessive inflows. This strategy would require more active management of both exchange rates and capital flows than has been the accepted "best practice&". This requires a substantial shift in the current policy mindset. The International Monetary Fund has shifted some distance on this issue, but has further to go

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in an Emerging Market: The Case of the Czech Republic

We examine exchange rate pass-through, or how domestic prices respond to exchange rate shocks, in the Czech Republic from 1998 to 2013 by employing vector autoregression models. Using the aggregate consumer price index and its sub-components, we find that the degree of passthrough is incomplete except for food prices. The peak response occurs between 9 and 13 months after the exchange rate shock. The long-term pass-through is approximately 50% at the aggregate level. The degree of pass-through is greater for tradables than for non-tradables. The results also suggest that the exchange rate pass-through becomes slower but more complete during the financial crisis experienced in period considered

How Should We Bank with Foreigners? - An Empirical Assessment of Lending Behavior of International Banks to Six East Asian Economies

The possible crucial role of international bank lending in transmitting adverse economic disturbance from developed economies to emerging economies in the 2008 - 2009 global financial crisis has placed capital flows into sharper scrutiny in academic and policy discussions. The authors construct macro-and micro-panel data on international bank lending to six Asian economies - Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand - to analyze a number of objectives. The paper first examines the influence of critical determinants not only to overall international bank lending but also to cross-border bank lending, and obtained one finding that cross-border lending by international banks tend to pull out from host economies during difficult times in source economies, whereas such retrenchments are not evident on an aggregated basis. This suggests that encouraging brick-and-mortar affiliates of international banks to "set up shop" in recipient economies may be the judicious choice for these economies. The paper next examines the differences between subsidiaries and branches of international banks in terms of their ability to shield themselves from the financial difficulties of their global parent banks and thus their ability to continue lending in destination markets. The results show that foreign bank subsidiaries are more capable in this regard. This finding carries with it the attraction of favoring an organizational banking structure that is biased toward subsidiaries. However, national banking regulators should remember that apart from encouraging a host of other domestic and cross-border initiatives, encouraging the entry of brick-and-mortar subsidiaries of international banks should not be viewed as a panacea to financial stability concerns of economies in Asia and in emerging markets in general

Exchange Rate Risk and Convergence to the Euro

This paper proposes a new monetary policy framework for effectively navigating the path to adopting the euro. The proposed policy is based on relative inflation forecast targeting and incorporates an ancillary target of declining exchange rate risk, which is suggested as a key criterion for evaluating the currency stability. A model linking exchange rate volatility to differentials over the euro zone in both inflation (target variable) and interest rate (instrument variable) is proposed. The model is empirically tested for the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary, the selected new Member States of the EU that use direct inflation targeting to guide their monetary policies. The empirical methodology is based on the TARCH(p,q,r)-M model

Macroeconomic stability and investment allocation of domestic pension funds in emerging economies: the case of Chile

Includes bibliograph