Geographic profiling as a novel spatial tool for targeting infectious disease control

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Geographic profiling is a statistical tool originally developed in criminology to prioritise large lists of suspects in cases of serial crime. Here, we use two data sets - one historical and one modern - to show how it can be used to locate the sources of infectious disease.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>First, we re-analyse data from a classic epidemiological study, the 1854 London cholera outbreak. Using 321 disease sites as input, we evaluate the locations of 13 neighbourhood water pumps. The Broad Street pump - the outbreak's source- ranks first, situated in the top 0.2% of the geoprofile. We extend our study with an analysis of reported malaria cases in Cairo, Egypt, using 139 disease case locations to rank 59 mosquitogenic local water sources, seven of which tested positive for the vector <it>Anopheles sergentii</it>. Geographic profiling ranks six of these seven sites in positions 1-6, all in the top 2% of the geoprofile. In both analyses the method outperformed other measures of spatial central tendency.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We suggest that geographic profiling could form a useful component of integrated control strategies relating to a wide variety of infectious diseases, since evidence-based targeting of interventions is more efficient, environmentally friendly and cost-effective than untargeted intervention.</p

A Descriptive Model of the Hunting Process of Serial Sex Offenders: A Rational Choice Perspective

Abstract A rational choice theory approach was used to analyze the offense behavior of serial sex offenders. Qualitative data were obtained through the descriptions of the crimes provided by 69 serial sex offenders who were incarcerated in a Correctional Service of Canada institution. Based on the offenders&apos; accounts, a descriptive model specific to the hunting process was identified. This model contained the following nine phases: offender and victim routine activities, choice of hunting ground, victim selection, method of approach, attack location choice, method to bring the victim to the crime site, crime location choice, method to commit the crime, and the victim release location choice. The model is discussed according to existing research on serial sex offenders and environmental criminology. Implications for clinical practice, crime prevention, offender profiling, and future studies are discussed. Keywords Hunting pattern . Rational choice . Serial sex offender . Offending process Studies exploring crime from the offender&apos;s perspective is of crucial importance to the formulation of both theory and policy Nonetheless, it has been noted that the face-to-face interaction which is part of collecting this information represents &quot;the fullest condition of participating in the mind of another human being&quot; (Lofland and Lofland 1984, p. 12). According to Most of the work using the offender&apos;s perspective to investigate decision making of criminals has been limited to property crimes. Such studies have been conducted on burglars Descriptive Models of Offense Processes in Sex Offenders Using a qualitative approach, descriptive models of offense processes in child molester

Mapping Criminal Activity Space

This article discusses how the use of cellular networks by a criminal offender produces spatio-temporal data that reveals his/her activities and activity space. The methods aim to establish possible paths that the criminal will use to move around in his/her activity space; the edges of the activity space; districts in which the criminal is moving such as residential, commercial and industrial areas and attractions such as night clubs and warehouses; and nodes determined by the frequency of cell usage. Using cellular location usage data, it is possible to determine the criminal’s mental map of the area in which he/she operates based on routine activity theory approach as well as establishing the criminal’s comfort zone. Such information can be valuable for intelligence and investigative purposes

Mapping Criminal Activity Space

This article discusses how the use of cellular networks by a criminal offender produces spatio-temporal data that reveals his/her activities and activity space. The methods aim to establish possible paths that the criminal will use to move around in his/her activity space; the edges of the activity space; districts in which the criminal is moving such as residential, commercial and industrial areas and attractions such as night clubs and warehouses; and nodes determined by the frequency of cell usage. Using cellular location usage data, it is possible to determine the criminal’s mental map of the area in which he/she operates based on routine activity theory approach as well as establishing the criminal’s comfort zone. Such information can be valuable for intelligence and investigative purposes

Geographic profiling applied to testing models of bumble-bee foraging

Geographical profiling (GP) was originally developed as a statistical tool to help police forces prioritize lists of suspects in investigations of serial crimes. GP uses the location of related crime sites to make inferences about where the offender is most likely to live, and has been extremely successful in criminology. Here, we show how GP is applicable to experimental studies of animal foraging, using the bumble-bee Bombus terrestris. GP techniques enable us to simplify complex patterns of spatial data down to a small number of parameters (2-3) for rigorous hypothesis testing. Combining computer model simulations and experimental observation of foraging bumble-bees, we demonstrate that GP can be used to discriminate between foraging patterns resulting from (i) different hypothetical foraging algorithms and (ii) different food item (flower) densities. We also demonstrate that combining experimental and simulated data can be used to elucidate animal foraging strategies: specifically that the foraging patterns of real bumble-bees can be reliably discriminated from three out of nine hypothetical foraging algorithms. We suggest that experimental systems, like foraging bees, could be used to test and refine GP model predictions, and that GP offers a useful technique to analyse spatial animal behaviour data in both the laboratory and field