771 research outputs found

    Dimension reduction for systems with slow relaxation

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    We develop reduced, stochastic models for high dimensional, dissipative dynamical systems that relax very slowly to equilibrium and can encode long term memory. We present a variety of empirical and first principles approaches for model reduction, and build a mathematical framework for analyzing the reduced models. We introduce the notions of universal and asymptotic filters to characterize `optimal' model reductions for sloppy linear models. We illustrate our methods by applying them to the practically important problem of modeling evaporation in oil spills.Comment: 48 Pages, 13 figures. Paper dedicated to the memory of Leo Kadanof

    HIV education in a Siberian prison colony for drug dependent males

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    AIM: To evaluate the effectiveness of an HIV peer training program conducted in a colony for drug dependent male prisoners in Siberia, Russia. METHOD: Questionnaires were used to collect data pre and post peer training sessions. Three peer training sessions were conducted between questionnaires. Fifteen to twenty inmates were trained as peer educators at each week-long health education training session. RESULTS: In 2000 and 2001, 153 and 124 inmates completed the questionnaire respectively. Respondents in both years reported similar health and injecting histories and comparable levels of sexual activity. Respondents in 2001 were significantly more likely to correctly identify both how HIV can and cannot be transmitted compared to respondents in 2000. The prevalence of tattooing in prison decreased significantly between questionnaires. However, there was virtually no reported use of bleach to clean tattooing or injecting equipment in either 2000 or 2001. Access to condoms increased significantly between questionnaires. CONCLUSIONS: While this training program was associated with improved HIV knowledge, the Ministry of Justice should consider improved and additional harm reduction strategies. These include increased availability of bleach and condoms and the introduction of methadone treatment and syringe exchange in prison

    The catch 22 of condoms in US correctional facilities

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite the high prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV infection in US correctional settings, most jails and prisons in the United States prevent inmates from using condoms to prevent STIs/HIV.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This article makes the following arguments to justify a scalable and feasible next step in the prevention of HIV/STIs among inmates: condoms are a basic and essential part of HIV/STI prevention, HIV/STI transmission occurs in the context of corrections, and several model programs show the feasibility of condom distribution in prisons. A lower end estimate for HIV incidence among incarcerated applied to 2,000,000 new inmates annually results in thousands of new HIV infections acquired each year in corrections that could be prevented with condoms in corrections facilities. Programs from parts of the United States, Canada, and much of Europe show how programs distributing condoms in correctional facilities can be safe and effective.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Public health and corrections officials must work together to ensure that condoms and broader sexual disease prevention programs are integrated into US jail and prison health systems.</p

    Predictive modelling of a novel anti-adhesion therapy to combat bacterial colonisation of burn wounds

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    As the development of new classes of antibiotics slows, bacterial resistance to existing antibiotics is becoming an increasing problem. A potential solution is to develop treatment strategies with an alternative mode of action. We consider one such strategy: anti-adhesion therapy. Whereas antibiotics act directly upon bacteria, either killing them or inhibiting their growth, anti-adhesion therapy impedes the binding of bacteria to host cells. This prevents bacteria from deploying their arsenal of virulence mechanisms, while simultaneously rendering them more susceptible to natural and artificial clearance. In this paper, we consider a particular form of anti-adhesion therapy, involving biomimetic multivalent adhesion molecule 7 coupled polystyrene microbeads, which competitively inhibit the binding of bacteria to host cells. We develop a mathematical model, formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations, to describe inhibitor treatment of a Pseudomonas aeruginosa burn wound infection in the rat. Benchmarking our model against in vivo data from an ongoing experimental programme, we use the model to explain bacteria population dynamics and to predict the efficacy of a range of treatment strategies, with the aim of improving treatment outcome. The model consists of two physical compartments: the host cells and the exudate. It is found that, when effective in reducing the bacterial burden, inhibitor treatment operates both by preventing bacteria from binding to the host cells and by reducing the flux of daughter cells from the host cells into the exudate. Our model predicts that inhibitor treatment cannot eliminate the bacterial burden when used in isolation; however, when combined with regular or continuous debridement of the exudate, elimination is theoretically possible. Lastly, we present ways to improve therapeutic efficacy, as predicted by our mathematical model
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