531 research outputs found
Breakdown of the mean-field approximation in a wealth distribution model
One of the key socioeconomic phenomena to explain is the distribution of
wealth. Bouchaud and M\'ezard have proposed an interesting model of economy
[Bouchaud and M\'ezard (2000)] based on trade and investments of agents. In the
mean-field approximation, the model produces a stationary wealth distribution
with a power-law tail. In this paper we examine characteristic time scales of
the model and show that for any finite number of agents, the validity of the
mean-field result is time-limited and the model in fact has no stationary
wealth distribution. Further analysis suggests that for heterogeneous agents,
the limitations are even stronger. We conclude with general implications of the
presented results.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure
Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable minimum model of evolution
We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics.
New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of
existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market they may compete against
already existing goods, in other words new products can have destructive
effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism existing
goods may be driven out from the market - often causing cascades of secondary
defects (Schumpeterian gales of destruction). The model leads to a generic
dynamics characterized by phases of relative economic stability followed by
phases of massive restructuring of markets - which could be interpreted as
Schumpeterian business `cycles'. Model timeseries of product diversity and
productivity reproduce several stylized facts of economics timeseries on long
timescales such as GDP or business failures, including non-Gaussian fat tailed
distributions, volatility clustering etc. The model is phrased in an open,
non-equilibrium setup which can be understood as a self organized critical
system. Its diversity dynamics can be understood by the time-varying topology
of the active production networks.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figure
Turnover, account value and diversification of real traders: evidence of collective portfolio optimizing behavior
Despite the availability of very detailed data on financial market,
agent-based modeling is hindered by the lack of information about real trader
behavior. This makes it impossible to validate agent-based models, which are
thus reverse-engineering attempts. This work is a contribution to the building
of a set of stylized facts about the traders themselves. Using the client
database of Swissquote Bank SA, the largest on-line Swiss broker, we find
empirical relationships between turnover, account values and the number of
assets in which a trader is invested. A theory based on simple mean-variance
portfolio optimization that crucially includes variable transaction costs is
able to reproduce faithfully the observed behaviors. We finally argue that our
results bring into light the collective ability of a population to construct a
mean-variance portfolio that takes into account the structure of transaction
costsComment: 26 pages, 9 figures, Fig. 8 fixe
Pareto Improving Interventions in a General Equilibrium Model with Private Provision of Public Goods
Optimal leverage from non-ergodicity
In modern portfolio theory, the balancing of expected returns on investments
against uncertainties in those returns is aided by the use of utility
functions. The Kelly criterion offers another approach, rooted in information
theory, that always implies logarithmic utility. The two approaches seem
incompatible, too loosely or too tightly constraining investors' risk
preferences, from their respective perspectives. The conflict can be understood
on the basis that the multiplicative models used in both approaches are
non-ergodic which leads to ensemble-average returns differing from time-average
returns in single realizations. The classic treatments, from the very beginning
of probability theory, use ensemble-averages, whereas the Kelly-result is
obtained by considering time-averages. Maximizing the time-average growth rates
for an investment defines an optimal leverage, whereas growth rates derived
from ensemble-average returns depend linearly on leverage. The latter measure
can thus incentivize investors to maximize leverage, which is detrimental to
time-average growth and overall market stability. The Sharpe ratio is
insensitive to leverage. Its relation to optimal leverage is discussed. A
better understanding of the significance of time-irreversibility and
non-ergodicity and the resulting bounds on leverage may help policy makers in
reshaping financial risk controls.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures. Updated figures and extended discussion of
ergodicit
Whither Capitalism? Financial externalities and crisis
As with global warming, so with financial crises â externalities have a lot to answer for. We
look at three of them. First the financial accelerator due to âfire salesâ of collateral assets -- a
form of pecuniary externality that leads to liquidity being undervalued. Second the ârisk-
shiftingâ behaviour of highly-levered financial institutions who keep the upside of risky
investment while passing the downside to others thanks to limited liability. Finally, the
network externality where the structure of the financial industry helps propagate shocks
around the system unless this is checked by some form of circuit breaker, or âring-fenceâ.
The contrast between crisis-induced Great Recession and its aftermath of slow growth in the
West and the rapid - and (so far) sustained - growth in the East suggests that successful
economic progress may depend on how well these externalities are managed
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