Antigovernment networks in civil conflicts : how network structures affect conflictual behavior

In this article, we combine a game-theoretic treatment of public goods provision in networks with a statistical network analysis to show that fragmented opposition network structures lead to an increase in conflictual actions. Current literature concentrates on the dyadic relationship between the government and potential challengers. We shift the focus toward exploring how network structures affect the strategic behavior of political actors. We derive and examine testable hypotheses and use latent space analysis to infer actors’ positions vis-à-vis each other in the network. Network structure is examined and used to test our hypotheses with data on conflicts in Thailand from 2001 to 2010. We show the influential role of network structure in generating conflictual behavior

Learning from the past and stepping into the future : toward a new generation of conflict prediction

Developing political forecasting models not only increases the ability of political scientists to inform public policy decisions, but is also relevant for scientific advancement. This article argues for and demonstrates the utility of creating forecasting models for predicting political conflicts in a diverse range of country settings. Apart from the benefit of making actual predictions, we argue that predictive heuristics are one gold standard of model development in the field of conflict studies. As such, they shed light on an array of important components of the political science literature on conflict dynamics. We develop and present conflict predictions that have been highly accurate for past and subsequent events, exhibiting few false-negative and false-positive categorizations. Our predictions are made at the monthly level for 6-month periods into the future, taking into account the social–spatial context of each individual country. The model has a high degree of accuracy in reproducing historical data measured monthly over the past 10 years and has approximately equal accuracy in making forecasts. Thus, forecasting in political science is increasingly accurate. At the same time, by providing a gold standard that separates model construction from model evaluation, we can defeat observational research designs and use true prediction as a way to evaluate theories. We suggest that progress in the modeling of conflict research depends on the use of prediction as a gold standard of heuristic evaluation

STEPPING INTO THE FUTURE: THE NEXT GENERATION OF CRISIS FORECASTING MODELS

Abstract. Developing political forecasting models is not only relevant for scientific advancement, but also increases the ability of political scientists to inform public policy decisions. Taking this perspective seriously, the International Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS) was developed under a DARPA initiative to provide predictions of international crisis, domestic crisis, rebellion, insurgency, and ethnic violence (Events of Interest/EOIs) in about two-dozen countries in the US PACOM Area of Responsibility. As part of a larger project coordinated by Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Labs, a team at Duke University created a series of geographically informed statistical models for these EOIs. The generated predictions have been highly accurate, with few false negative and positive categorizations. Predictions are made at the monthly level for three months periods into the future. The major variables to generate the predictions include 1) event data culled from FACTIVA reports, 2) structural political characteristics of states, 3) economic characteristics of states, and 4) contextual features of each country. These later characteristics take into account the social-spatial context of each individual country, thereby allowing the models to escape the limitations of treating each country as independent from the influence of events and forces in nearby countries. For each EOI we present a separate prediction model, which captures the unique dynamics of each outcome. Each of these models has a high degree of accuracy in reproducing historical data measured monthly over the past 10 years, and is approximately equally accurate in making three-month forecasts out-of-sample

Objective and automated protocols for the evaluation of biomedical search engines using No Title Evaluation protocols

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The evaluation of information retrieval techniques has traditionally relied on human judges to determine which documents are relevant to a query and which are not. This protocol is used in the Text Retrieval Evaluation Conference (TREC), organized annually for the past 15 years, to support the unbiased evaluation of novel information retrieval approaches. The TREC Genomics Track has recently been introduced to measure the performance of information retrieval for biomedical applications.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We describe two protocols for evaluating biomedical information retrieval techniques without human relevance judgments. We call these protocols No Title Evaluation (NT Evaluation). The first protocol measures performance for focused searches, where only one relevant document exists for each query. The second protocol measures performance for queries expected to have potentially many relevant documents per query (high-recall searches). Both protocols take advantage of the clear separation of titles and abstracts found in Medline. We compare the performance obtained with these evaluation protocols to results obtained by reusing the relevance judgments produced in the 2004 and 2005 TREC Genomics Track and observe significant correlations between performance rankings generated by our approach and TREC. Spearman's correlation coefficients in the range of 0.79–0.92 are observed comparing bpref measured with NT Evaluation or with TREC evaluations. For comparison, coefficients in the range 0.86–0.94 can be observed when evaluating the same set of methods with data from two independent TREC Genomics Track evaluations. We discuss the advantages of NT Evaluation over the TRels and the data fusion evaluation protocols introduced recently.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results suggest that the NT Evaluation protocols described here could be used to optimize some search engine parameters before human evaluation. Further research is needed to determine if NT Evaluation or variants of these protocols can fully substitute for human evaluations.</p

Talazoparib monotherapy in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer with DNA repair alterations (TALAPRO-1): an open-label, phase 2 trial

Poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitors have antitumour activity against metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancers with DNA damage response (DDR) alterations in genes involved directly or indirectly in homologous recombination repair (HRR). In this study, we assessed the PARP inhibitor talazoparib in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancers with DDR-HRR alterations. In this open-label, phase 2 trial (TALAPRO-1), participants were recruited from 43 hospitals, cancer centres, and medical centres in Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, South Korea, the UK, and the USA. Patients were eligible if they were men aged 18 years or older with progressive, metastatic, castration-resistant prostate cancers of adenocarcinoma histology, measurable soft-tissue disease (per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors version 1.1 [RECIST 1.1]), an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-2, DDR-HRR gene alterations reported to sensitise to PARP inhibitors (ie, ATM, ATR, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, FANCA, MLH1, MRE11A, NBN, PALB2, RAD51C), had received one or two taxane-based chemotherapy regimens for metastatic disease, and progressed on enzalutamide or abiraterone, or both, for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancers. Eligible patients were given oral talazoparib (1 mg per day; or 0·75 mg per day in patients with moderate renal impairment) until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity, investigator decision, withdrawal of consent, or death. The primary endpoint was confirmed objective response rate, defined as best overall soft-tissue response of complete or partial response per RECIST 1.1, by blinded independent central review. The primary endpoint was assessed in patients who received study drug, had measurable soft-tissue disease, and had a gene alteration in one of the predefined DDR-HRR genes. Safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of the study drug. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03148795, and is ongoing. Between Oct 18, 2017, and March 20, 2020, 128 patients were enrolled, of whom 127 received at least one dose of talazoparib (safety population) and 104 had measurable soft-tissue disease (antitumour activity population). Data cutoff for this analysis was Sept 4, 2020. After a median follow-up of 16·4 months (IQR 11·1-22·1), the objective response rate was 29·8% (31 of 104 patients; 95% CI 21·2-39·6). The most common grade 3-4 treatment-emergent adverse events were anaemia (39 [31%] of 127 patients), thrombocytopenia (11 [9%]), and neutropenia (ten [8%]). Serious treatment-emergent adverse events were reported in 43 (34%) patients. There were no treatment-related deaths. Talazoparib showed durable antitumour activity in men with advanced metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancers with DDR-HRR gene alterations who had been heavily pretreated. The favourable benefit-risk profile supports the study of talazoparib in larger, randomised clinical trials, including in patients with non-BRCA alterations. Pfizer/Medivation

Effect of Visceral Disease Site on Outcomes in Patients With Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer Treated With Enzalutamide in the PREVAIL Trial.

Background The Multinational Phase 3, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Efficacy and Safety Study of Oral MDV3100 in Chemotherapy-Naive Patients With Progressive Metastatic Prostate Cancer Who Have Failed Androgen Deprivation Therapy (PREVAIL) trial was unique as it included patients with visceral disease. This analysis was designed to describe outcomes for the subgroup of men from PREVAIL with specific sites of visceral disease to help clinicians understand how these patients responded to enzalutamide prior to chemotherapy.Patients and methods Prespecified analyses examined the coprimary endpoints of radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) and overall survival (OS) only. All other efficacy analyses were post hoc. The visceral subgroup was divided into liver or lung subsets. Patients with both liver and lung metastases were included in the liver subset.Results Of the 1717 patients in PREVAIL, 204 (12%) had visceral metastases at screening (liver only or liver/lung metastases, n = 74; lung only metastases, n = 130). In patients with liver metastases, enzalutamide was associated with an improvement in rPFS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.22-0.90) but not OS (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.57-1.87). In patients with lung metastases only, the HR for rPFS (0.14; 95% CI, 0.06-0.36) and the HR for OS (0.59; 95% CI, 0.33-1.06) favored enzalutamide over placebo. Patients with liver metastases had worse outcomes than those with lung metastases, regardless of treatment. Enzalutamide was well tolerated in patients with visceral disease.Conclusions Enzalutamide is an active first-line treatment option for men with asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic chemotherapy-naive metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer and visceral disease. Patients with lung-only disease fared better than patients with liver disease, regardless of treatment

Active surveillance in metastatic renal-cell carcinoma: a prospective, phase 2 trial.

Background A subset of patients with metastatic renal-cell carcinoma show indolent growth of metastases. Because of the toxicity and non-curative nature of systemic therapy, some of these patients could benefit from initial active surveillance. We aimed to characterise the time to initiation of systemic therapy in patients with metastatic renal-cell carcinoma under active surveillance.Methods In this prospective phase 2 trial, we enrolled patients with treatment-naive, asymptomatic, metastatic renal-cell carcinoma from five hospitals in the USA, Spain, and the UK. Patients were radiographically assessed at baseline, every 3 months for year 1, every 4 months for year 2, then every 6 months thereafter. Patients continued on observation until initiation of systemic therapy for metastatic renal-cell carcinoma; a decision that was made at the discretion of the treating physician and patient. The primary endpoint of the study was time to initiation of systemic therapy in the per-protocol population. The follow-up of patients is ongoing.Findings Between Aug 21, 2008, and June 7, 2013, we enrolled 52 patients. Median follow-up of patients in the study was 38·1 months (IQR 29·4-48·9). In the 48 patients included in analysis, median time on surveillance from registration on study until initiation of systemic therapy was 14·9 months (95% CI 10·6-25·0). Multivariate analysis showed that higher numbers of International Metastatic Database Consortium (IMDC) adverse risk factors (p=0·0403) and higher numbers of metastatic disease sites (p=0·0414) were associated with a shorter surveillance period. 22 (46%) patients died during the study period, all from metastatic renal-cell carcinoma.Interpretation A subset of patients with metastatic renal-cell carcinoma can safely undergo surveillance before starting systemic therapy. Additional investigation is required to further define the benefits and risks of this approach.Funding None

‘There is a Time to be Born and a Time to Die’ (Ecclesiastes 3:2a): Jewish Perspectives on Euthanasia

Reviewing the publications of prominent American rabbis who have (extensively) published on Jewish biomedical ethics, this article highlights Orthodox, Conservative and Reform opinions on a most pressing contemporary bioethical issue: euthanasia. Reviewing their opinions against the background of the halachic character of Jewish (biomedical) ethics, this article shows how from one traditional Jewish textual source diverse, even contradictory, opinions emerge through different interpretations. In this way, in the Jewish debate on euthanasia the specific methodology of Jewish (bio)ethical reasoning comes forward as well as a diversity of opinion within Judaism and its branches