Understanding the Economic Consequences of Shifting Trends in Population Health

The public economic burden of shifting trends in population health remains uncertain. Sustained increases in obesity, diabetes, and other diseases could reduce life expectancy – with a concomitant decrease in the public-sector’s annuity burden – but these savings may be offset by worsening functional status, which increases health care spending, reduces labor supply, and increases public assistance. Using a microsimulation approach, we quantify the competing public-finance consequences of shifting trends in population health for medical care costs, labor supply, earnings, wealth, tax revenues, and government expenditures (including Social Security and income assistance). Together, the reduction in smoking and the rise in obesity have increased net public-sector liabilities by $430bn, or approximately 4% of the current debt burden. Larger effects are observed for specific public programs: annual spending is 10% higher in the Medicaid program, and 7% higher for Medicare.disability, health care costs, social security, microsimulation

International Differences in Longevity and Health and their Economic Consequences

In 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than their European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy at that age has diverged substantially compared to Europe. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily the symptom of real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their European peers. In particular, we use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Europe. We find that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050.disability, mortality, international comparisons, microsimulation

Slatted pen floors reduce Salmonella in market swine held in abattoirs

The objective of this study was to directly compare Salmonella isolation rates from pig slaughtered after 4 hours holding on slatted or solid concrete floors. Seven truckloads (replicates) of market swine ( 120 kg) from a fully integrated farrow-to-slaughter operation were studied. At unloading, groups of pigs (15-30) were sorted to 1) no-hold (20-45 minutes waiting), 2) pens with solid concrete floors (4 hours), 3) slatted concrete floors (4 hours). Postmortem samples were cultured for Salmonella. Those pigs held in pens with slatted floors (63.6%) had significantly (P \u3c 0.05) less Salmonella in their ceca than those held on solid floors (72.7%)

A study of the mechanism of chemical reactivity of nitrogen tetroxide with titanium alloy Final report, 26 Jan. 1969 - 31 Mar. 1970

Reactions between liquid dinitrogen tetraoxide and titanium alloy that result in stress corrosion crackin

Abundance, behavior, and movement patterns of western gray whales in relation to a 3-D seismic survey, Northeast Sakhalin Island, Russia

A geophysical seismic survey was conducted in the summer of 2001 off the northeastern coast of Sakhalin Island, Russia. The area of seismic exploration was immediately adjacent to the Piltun feeding grounds of the endangered western gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus). This study investigates relative abundance, behavior, and movement patterns of gray whales in relation to occurrence and proximity to the seismic survey by employing scan sampling, focal follow, and theodolite tracking methodologies. These data were analyzed in relation to temporal, environmental, and seismic related variables to evaluate potential disturbance reactions of gray whales to the seismic survey. The relative numbers of whales and pods recorded from five shore-based stations were not significantly different during periods when seismic surveys were occurring compared to periods when no seismic surveys were occurring and to the post-seismic period. Univariate analyses indicated no significant statistical correlation between seismic survey variables and any of the eleven movement and behavior variables. Multiple regression analyses indicated that, after accounting for temporal and environmental variables, 6 of 11 movement and behavior variables (linearity, acceleration, mean direction, blows per surfacing, and surface-dive blow rate) were not significantly associated with seismic survey variables, and 5 of 11 variables (leg speed, reorientation rate, distance-from-shore, blow interval, and dive time) were significantly associated with seismic survey variables. In summary, after accounting for environmental variables, no correlation was found between seismic survey variables and the linearity of whale movements, changes in whale swimming speed between theodolite fixes, mean direction of whale movement, mean number of whale exhalations per minute at the surface, mean time at the surface, and mean number of exhalations per minute during a whales surface-to-dive cycle. In contrast, at higher received sound energy exposure levels, whales traveled faster, changed directions of movement less, were recorded further from shore, and stayed under water longer between respirations

Phase synchronization and noise-induced resonance in systems of coupled oscillators

We study synchronization and noise-induced resonance phenomena in systems of globally coupled oscillators, each possessing finite inertia. The behavior of the order parameter, which measures collective synchronization of the system, is investigated as the noise level and the coupling strength are varied, and hysteretic behavior is manifested. The power spectrum of the phase velocity is also examined and the quality factor as well as the response function is obtained to reveal noise-induced resonance behavior.Comment: to be published in Phys. Rev.

Synchronization and resonance in a driven system of coupled oscillators

We study the noise effects in a driven system of globally coupled oscillators, with particular attention to the interplay between driving and noise. The self-consistency equation for the order parameter, which measures the collective synchronization of the system, is derived; it is found that the total order parameter decreases monotonically with noise, indicating overall suppression of synchronization. Still, for large coupling strengths, there exists an optimal noise level at which the periodic (ac) component of the order parameter reaches its maximum. The response of the phase velocity is also examined and found to display resonance behavior.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figure

Demographic Scenarios for the EU: Migration, population and education

Over the recent decades, the EU has been shaped by population growth, but now its population is ageing. Together with North America and East Asia, the EU is moving towards longer-living, lower-fertility, and higher-educated societies. Facing this new demographic frontier naturally prompts the questions: Who will live and work in Europe in the coming decades? How many, and with what skills? To answer these, this report examines the key factors that will shape European demographics over the coming decades. By examining not only the role of migration, fertility and mortality, but also education levels and labour force participation rates, a more comprehensive view of possible futures can be outlined than the conventional demographic projections allow for. The first five sections of this report focus on demographic challenges inside the EU, such as population ageing, a shrinking labour force, more non-working people being dependent on working people, and showing the impact of high levels of emigration in some EU Member States. With these challenges in mind and with a view towards 2060, the report builds scenarios to understand the long-term effects of changes in key trends, and whether undesirable consequences can be limited or counteracted. As the EU and its demographics do not exist in isolation, the following sections explore the relevant trends for world demographics and for migration flows

Evidence of stochastic resonance in the mating behavior of Nezara viridula (L.)

We investigate the role of the noise in the mating behavior between individuals of Nezara viridula (L.), by analyzing the temporal and spectral features of the non-pulsed type female calling song emitted by single individuals. We have measured the threshold level for the signal detection, by performing experiments with the calling signal at different intensities and analyzing the insect response by directionality tests performed on a group of male individuals. By using a sub-threshold signal and an acoustic Gaussian noise source, we have investigated the insect response for different levels of noise, finding behavioral activation for suitable noise intensities. In particular, the percentage of insects which react to the sub-threshold signal, shows a non-monotonic behavior, characterized by the presence of a maximum, for increasing levels of the noise intensity. This constructive interplay between external noise and calling signal is the signature of the non-dynamical stochastic resonance phenomenon. Finally, we describe the behavioral activation statistics by a soft threshold model which shows stochastic resonance. We find that the maximum of the ensemble average of the input-output cross-correlation occurs at a value of the noise intensity very close to that for which the behavioral response has a maximum.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, to appear in EPJ B (2008

Roles of the Drosophila SK Channel (dSK) in Courtship Memory

A role for SK channels in synaptic plasticity has been very well-characterized. However, in the absence of simple genetic animal models, their role in behavioral memory remains elusive. Here, we take advantage of Drosophila melanogaster with its single SK gene (dSK) and well-established courtship memory assay to investigate the contribution of this channel to memory. Using two independent dSK alleles, a null mutation and a dominant negative subunit, we show that while dSK negatively regulates the acquisition of short-term memory 30 min after a short training session, it is required for normal long-term memory 24 h after extended training. These findings highlight important functions for dSK in courtship memory and suggest that SK channels can mediate multiple forms of behavioral plasticity