Bayesian neural network learning for repeat purchase modelling in direct marketing.

We focus on purchase incidence modelling for a European direct mail company. Response models based on statistical and neural network techniques are contrasted. The evidence framework of MacKay is used as an example implementation of Bayesian neural network learning, a method that is fairly robust with respect to problems typically encountered when implementing neural networks. The automatic relevance determination (ARD) method, an integrated feature of this framework, allows to assess the relative importance of the inputs. The basic response models use operationalisations of the traditionally discussed Recency, Frequency and Monetary (RFM) predictor categories. In a second experiment, the RFM response framework is enriched by the inclusion of other (non-RFM) customer profiling predictors. We contribute to the literature by providing experimental evidence that: (1) Bayesian neural networks offer a viable alternative for purchase incidence modelling; (2) a combined use of all three RFM predictor categories is advocated by the ARD method; (3) the inclusion of non-RFM variables allows to significantly augment the predictive power of the constructed RFM classifiers; (4) this rise is mainly attributed to the inclusion of customer\slash company interaction variables and a variable measuring whether a customer uses the credit facilities of the direct mailing company.Marketing; Companies; Models; Model; Problems; Neural networks; Networks; Variables; Credit;

Wrapped feature selection for neural networks in direct marketing.

In this paper, we try to validate existing theory on and develop additional insight into repeat purchasing behaviour in a direct-marketing setting by means of an illuminating case study. The case involves the detection and qualification of the most relevant RFM (Recency, Frequency and Monetary) features, using a wrapped feature selection method in a neural network context. Results indicate that elimination of redundant/irrelevant features by means of the discussed feature selection method, allows to significantly reduce model complexity without degrading generalisation ability. It is precisely this issue that will allow to infer some very interesting marketing conclusions concerning the relative importance of the RFM-predictor categories. The empirical findings highlight the importance of a combined use of all three RFM variables in predicting repeat purchase behaviour. However, the study also reveals the dominant role of the frequency variable. Results indicate that a model including only frequency variables still yields satisfactory classification accuracy compared to the optimally reduced model.Marketing; Networks; Selection; Theory; Purchasing; Case studies; Studies; Model; Variables; Yield; Classification; Neural networks;

Joint optimization of customer segmentation and marketing policy to maximize long-term profitability

With the advent of one-to-one marketing media, e.g. targeted direct mail or internet marketing, the opportunities to develop targeted marketing campaigns are enhanced in such a way that it is now both organizationally and economically feasible to profitably support a substantially larger number of marketing segments. However, the problem of what segments to distinguish, and what actions to take towards the different segments increases substantially in such an environment. A systematic analytic procedure optimizing both steps would be very welcome.In this study, we present a joint optimization approach addressing two issues: (1) the segmentation of customers into homogeneous groups of customers, (2) determining the optimal policy (i.e., what action to take from a set of available actions) towards each segment. We implement this joint optimization framework in a direct-mail setting for a charitable organization. Many previous studies in this area highlighted the importance of the following variables: R(ecency), F(requency), and M(onetary value). We use these variables to segment customers. In a second step, we determine which marketing policy is optimal using markov decision processes, following similar previous applications. The attractiveness of this stochastic dynamic programming procedure is based on the long-run maximization of expected average profit. Our contribution lies in the combination of both steps into one optimization framework to obtain an optimal allocation of marketing expenditures. Moreover, we control segment stability and policy performance by a bootstrap procedure. Our framework is illustrated by a real-life application. The results show that the proposed model outperforms a CHAID segmentation

Profiling of microglia nodules in multiple sclerosis reveals propensity for lesion formation

Microglia nodules (HLA-DR+ cell clusters) are associated with brain pathology. In this post-mortem study, we investigated whether they represent the first stage of multiple sclerosis (MS) lesion formation. We show that microglia nodules are associated with more severe MS pathology. Compared to microglia nodules in stroke, those in MS show enhanced expression of genes previously found upregulated in MS lesions. Furthermore, genes associated with lipid metabolism, presence of T and B cells, production of immunoglobulins and cytokines, activation of the complement cascade, and metabolic stress are upregulated in microglia nodules in MS. Compared to stroke, they more frequently phagocytose oxidized phospholipids and possess a more tubular mitochondrial network. Strikingly, in MS, some microglia nodules encapsulate partially demyelinated axons. Taken together, we propose that activation of microglia nodules in MS by cytokines and immunoglobulins, together with phagocytosis of oxidized phospholipids, may lead to a microglia phenotype prone to MS lesion formation

What Values in Design? The Challenge of Incorporating Moral Values into Design

Recently, there is increased attention to the integration of moral values into the conception, design, and development of emerging IT. The most reviewed approach for this purpose in ethics and technology so far is Value-Sensitive Design (VSD). This article considers VSD as the prime candidate for implementing normative considerations into design. Its methodology is considered from a conceptual, analytical, normative perspective. The focus here is on the suitability of VSD for integrating moral values into the design of technologies in a way that joins in with an analytical perspective on ethics of technology. Despite its promising character, it turns out that VSD falls short in several respects: (1) VSD does not have a clear methodology for identifying stakeholders, (2) the integration of empirical methods with conceptual research within the methodology of VSD is obscure, (3) VSD runs the risk of committing the naturalistic fallacy when using empirical knowledge for implementing values in design, (4) the concept of values, as well as their realization, is left undetermined and (5) VSD lacks a complimentary or explicit ethical theory for dealing with value trade-offs. For the normative evaluation of a technology, I claim that an explicit and justified ethical starting point or principle is required. Moreover, explicit attention should be given to the value aims and assumptions of a particular design. The criteria of adequacy for such an approach or methodology follow from the evaluation of VSD as the prime candidate for implementing moral values in design

cDC2 plasticity and acquisition of a DC3-like phenotype mediated by IL-6 and PGE2 in a patient-derived colorectal cancer organoids model

Metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) is highly resistant to therapy and prone to recur. The tumor-induced local and systemic immunosuppression allows cancer cells to evade immunosurveillance, facilitating their proliferation and dissemination. Dendritic cells (DCs) are required for the detection, processing, and presentation of tumor antigens, and subsequently for the activation of antigen-specific T cells to orchestrate an effective antitumor response. Notably, successful tumors have evolved mechanisms to disrupt and impair DC functions, underlining the key role of tumor-induced DC dysfunction in promoting tumor growth, metastasis initiation, and treatment resistance. Conventional DC type 2 (cDC2) are highly prevalent in tumors and have been shown to present high phenotypic and functional plasticity in response to tumor-released environmental cues. This plasticity reverberates on both the development of antitumor responses and on the efficacy of immunotherapies in cancer patients. Uncovering the processes, mechanisms, and mediators by which CRC shapes and disrupts cDC2 functions is crucial to restoring their full antitumor potential. In this study, we use our recently developed 3D DC-tumor co-culture system to investigate how patient-derived primary and metastatic CRC organoids modulate cDC2 phenotype and function. We first demonstrate that our collagen-based system displays extensive interaction between cDC2 and tumor organoids. Interestingly, we show that tumor-corrupted cDC2 shift toward a CD14+ population with defective expression of maturation markers, an intermediate phenotype positioned between cDC2 and monocytes, and impaired T-cell activating abilities. This phenotype aligns with the newly defined DC3 (CD14(+) CD1c(+) CD163(+)) subset. Remarkably, a comparable population was found to be present in tumor lesions and enriched in the peripheral blood of metastatic CRC patients. Moreover, using EP2 and EP4 receptor antagonists and an anti-IL-6 neutralizing antibody, we determined that the observed phenotype shift is partially mediated by PGE2 and IL-6. Importantly, our system holds promise as a platform for testing therapies aimed at preventing or mitigating tumor-induced DC dysfunction. Overall, our study offers novel and relevant insights into cDC2 (dys)function in CRC that hold relevance for the design of therapeutic approaches

Ethics and Nanopharmacy: Value Sensitive Design of New Drugs

Although applications are being developed and have reached the market, nanopharmacy to date is generally still conceived as an emerging technology. Its concept is ill-defined. Nanopharmacy can also be construed as a converging technology, which combines features of multiple technologies, ranging from nanotechnology to medicine and ICT. It is still debated whether its features give rise to new ethical issues or that issues associated with nanopharma are merely an extension of existing issues in the underlying fields. We argue here that, regardless of the alleged newness of the ethical issues involved, developments occasioned by technological advances affect the roles played by stakeholders in the field of nanopharmacy to such an extent that this calls for a different approach to responsible innovation in this field. Specific features associated with nanopharmacy itself and features introduced to the associated converging technologies- bring about a shift in the roles of stakeholders that call for a different approach to responsibility. We suggest that Value Sensitive Design is a suitable framework to involve stakeholders in addressing moral issues responsibly at an early stage of development of new nanopharmaceuticals

Wall roughness induces asymptotic ultimate turbulence

Turbulence is omnipresent in Nature and technology, governing the transport of heat, mass, and momentum on multiple scales. For real-world applications of wall-bounded turbulence, the underlying surfaces are virtually always rough; yet characterizing and understanding the effects of wall roughness for turbulence remains a challenge, especially for rotating and thermally driven turbulence. By combining extensive experiments and numerical simulations, here, taking as example the paradigmatic Taylor-Couette system (the closed flow between two independently rotating coaxial cylinders), we show how wall roughness greatly enhances the overall transport properties and the corresponding scaling exponents. If only one of the walls is rough, we reveal that the bulk velocity is slaved to the rough side, due to the much stronger coupling to that wall by the detaching flow structures. If both walls are rough, the viscosity dependence is thoroughly eliminated in the boundary layers and we thus achieve asymptotic ultimate turbulence, i.e. the upper limit of transport, whose existence had been predicted by Robert Kraichnan in 1962 (Phys. Fluids {\bf 5}, 1374 (1962)) and in which the scalings laws can be extrapolated to arbitrarily large Reynolds numbers

Survival, neurocognitive function, and health-related quality of life outcomes after rituximab-methotrexate, BCNU, teniposide, and prednisolone for primary CNS lymphoma:Final results of the HOVON 105/ALLG NHL 24 study

Background. Studies on the efficacy of rituximab in primary CNS lymphoma (PCNSL) reported conflicting results. Our international randomized phase 3 study showed that the addition of rituximab to high-dose methotrexate, BCNU, teniposide, and prednisolone (MBVP) in PCNSL was not efficacious in the short term. Here we present long-term results after a median follow-up of 82.3 months. Methods. One hundred and ninety-nine eligible newly diagnosed, nonimmunocompromised patients with PCNSL aged 18–70 years with WHO performance status 0–3 was randomized between treatment with MBVP chemotherapy with or without rituximab, followed by high-dose cytarabine consolidation in responding patients, and reduced-dose WBRT in patients aged ≤ 60 years. Event-free survival was the primary endpoint. Overall survival rate, neurocognitive functioning (NCF), and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were additionally assessed, with the IPCG test battery, EORTC QLQ-C30 and QLQ-BN20 questionnaires, respectively. Results. For event-free survival, the hazard ratio was 0.85, 95% CI 0.61–1.18, P = .33. Overall survival rate at 5 years for MBVP and R-MBVP was 49% (39–59) and 53% (43–63) respectively. In total, 64 patients died in the MBVP arm and 55 in the R-MBVP arm, of which 69% were due to PCNSL. At the group level, all domains of NCF and HRQoL improved to a clinically relevant extent after treatment initiation, and remained stable thereafter up to 60 months of follow-up, except for motor speed which deteriorated between 24 and 60 months. Although fatigue improved initially, high levels persisted in the long term. Conclusions. Long-term follow-up confirms the lack of added value of rituximab in addition to MBVP and HD-cytarabine for PCNSL.</p

Survival, neurocognitive function, and health-related quality of life outcomes after rituximab-methotrexate, BCNU, teniposide, and prednisolone for primary CNS lymphoma:Final results of the HOVON 105/ALLG NHL 24 study

Background. Studies on the efficacy of rituximab in primary CNS lymphoma (PCNSL) reported conflicting results. Our international randomized phase 3 study showed that the addition of rituximab to high-dose methotrexate, BCNU, teniposide, and prednisolone (MBVP) in PCNSL was not efficacious in the short term. Here we present long-term results after a median follow-up of 82.3 months. Methods. One hundred and ninety-nine eligible newly diagnosed, nonimmunocompromised patients with PCNSL aged 18–70 years with WHO performance status 0–3 was randomized between treatment with MBVP chemotherapy with or without rituximab, followed by high-dose cytarabine consolidation in responding patients, and reduced-dose WBRT in patients aged ≤ 60 years. Event-free survival was the primary endpoint. Overall survival rate, neurocognitive functioning (NCF), and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were additionally assessed, with the IPCG test battery, EORTC QLQ-C30 and QLQ-BN20 questionnaires, respectively. Results. For event-free survival, the hazard ratio was 0.85, 95% CI 0.61–1.18, P = .33. Overall survival rate at 5 years for MBVP and R-MBVP was 49% (39–59) and 53% (43–63) respectively. In total, 64 patients died in the MBVP arm and 55 in the R-MBVP arm, of which 69% were due to PCNSL. At the group level, all domains of NCF and HRQoL improved to a clinically relevant extent after treatment initiation, and remained stable thereafter up to 60 months of follow-up, except for motor speed which deteriorated between 24 and 60 months. Although fatigue improved initially, high levels persisted in the long term. Conclusions. Long-term follow-up confirms the lack of added value of rituximab in addition to MBVP and HD-cytarabine for PCNSL.</p