The Bayesian Decision Tree Technique with a Sweeping Strategy

The uncertainty of classification outcomes is of crucial importance for many safety critical applications including, for example, medical diagnostics. In such applications the uncertainty of classification can be reliably estimated within a Bayesian model averaging technique that allows the use of prior information. Decision Tree (DT) classification models used within such a technique gives experts additional information by making this classification scheme observable. The use of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology of stochastic sampling makes the Bayesian DT technique feasible to perform. However, in practice, the MCMC technique may become stuck in a particular DT which is far away from a region with a maximal posterior. Sampling such DTs causes bias in the posterior estimates, and as a result the evaluation of classification uncertainty may be incorrect. In a particular case, the negative effect of such sampling may be reduced by giving additional prior information on the shape of DTs. In this paper we describe a new approach based on sweeping the DTs without additional priors on the favorite shape of DTs. The performances of Bayesian DT techniques with the standard and sweeping strategies are compared on a synthetic data as well as on real datasets. Quantitatively evaluating the uncertainty in terms of entropy of class posterior probabilities, we found that the sweeping strategy is superior to the standard strategy

Coexistence and critical behaviour in a lattice model of competing species

In the present paper we study a lattice model of two species competing for the same resources. Monte Carlo simulations for d=1, 2, and 3 show that when resources are easily available both species coexist. However, when the supply of resources is on an intermediate level, the species with slower metabolism becomes extinct. On the other hand, when resources are scarce it is the species with faster metabolism that becomes extinct. The range of coexistence of the two species increases with dimension. We suggest that our model might describe some aspects of the competition between normal and tumor cells. With such an interpretation, examples of tumor remission, recurrence and of different morphologies are presented. In the d=1 and d=2 models, we analyse the nature of phase transitions: they are either discontinuous or belong to the directed-percolation universality class, and in some cases they have an active subcritical phase. In the d=2 case, one of the transitions seems to be characterized by critical exponents different than directed-percolation ones, but this transition could be also weakly discontinuous. In the d=3 version, Monte Carlo simulations are in a good agreement with the solution of the mean-field approximation. This approximation predicts that oscillatory behaviour occurs in the present model, but only for d>2. For d>=2, a steady state depends on the initial configuration in some cases.Comment: 11 pages, 14 figure

Life events and hemodynamic stress reactivity in the middle-aged and elderly

Recent versions of the reactivity hypothesis, which consider it to be the product of stress exposure and exaggerated haemodynamic reactions to stress that confers cardiovascular disease risk, assume that reactivity is independent of the experience of stressful life events. This assumption was tested in two substantial cohorts, one middle-aged and one elderly. Participants had to indicate from a list of major stressful life events up to six they had experienced in the previous two years. They were also asked to rate how disruptive and stressful they were, at the time of occurrence and now. Blood pressure and pulse rate were measured at rest and in response to acute mental stress. Those who rated the events as highly disruptive at the time of exposure and currently exhibited blunted systolic blood pressure reactions to acute stress. The present results suggest that acute stress reactivity may not be independent of stressful life events experience

Closed-Form Bayesian Inferences for the Logit Model via Polynomial Expansions

Articles in Marketing and choice literatures have demonstrated the need for incorporating person-level heterogeneity into behavioral models (e.g., logit models for multiple binary outcomes as studied here). However, the logit likelihood extended with a population distribution of heterogeneity doesn't yield closed-form inferences, and therefore numerical integration techniques are relied upon (e.g., MCMC methods). We present here an alternative, closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model, which we obtain by approximating the logit likelihood via a polynomial expansion, and then positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a flexible family that is now conjugate and integrable. For problems where the response coefficients are independent, choosing the Gamma distribution leads to rapidly convergent closed-form expansions; if there are correlations among the coefficients one can still obtain rapidly convergent closed-form expansions by positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a Multivariate Gamma distribution. The solution then comes from the moment generating function of the Multivariate Gamma distribution or in general from the multivariate heterogeneity distribution assumed. Closed-form Bayesian inferences, derivatives (useful for elasticity calculations), population distribution parameter estimates (useful for summarization) and starting values (useful for complicated algorithms) are hence directly available. Two simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figures, corrected some typos. Appears in Quantitative Marketing and Economics vol 4 (2006), no. 2, 173--20

A new method to measure Bowen ratios using high-resolution vertical dry and wet bulb temperature profiles

The Bowen ratio surface energy balance method is a relatively simple method to determine the latent heat flux and the actual land surface evaporation. The Bowen ratio method is based on the measurement of air temperature and vapour pressure gradients. If these measurements are performed at only two heights, correctness of data becomes critical. In this paper we present the concept of a new measurement method to estimate the Bowen ratio based on vertical dry and wet bulb temperature profiles with high spatial resolution. A short field experiment with distributed temperature sensing (DTS) in a fibre optic cable with 13 measurement points in the vertical was undertaken. A dry and a wetted section of a fibre optic cable were suspended on a 6 m high tower installed over a sugar beet trial plot near Pietermaritzburg (South Africa). Using the DTS cable as a psychrometer, a near continuous observation of vapour pressure and air temperature at 0.20 m intervals was established. These data allowed the computation of the Bowen ratio with a high spatial and temporal precision. The daytime latent and sensible heat fluxes were estimated by combining the Bowen ratio values from the DTS-based system with independent measurements of net radiation and soil heat flux. The sensible heat flux, which is the relevant term to evaluate, derived from the DTS-based Bowen ratio (BR-DTS) was compared with that derived from co-located eddy covariance (<i>R</i>² = 0.91), surface layer scintillometer (<i>R</i>² = 0.81) and surface renewal (<i>R</i>² = 0.86) systems. By using multiple measurement points instead of two, more confidence in the derived Bowen ratio values is obtained

Turbulent spectrum of the Earth's ozone field

The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) database is subjected to an analysis in terms of the Karhunen-Loeve (KL) empirical eigenfunctions. The concentration variance spectrum is transformed into a wavenumber spectrum, $E_c(k)$. In terms of wavenumber $E_c(k)$ is shown to be $O(k^{-2/3})$ in the inverse cascade regime, $O(k^{-2})$ in the enstrophy cascade regime with the spectral {\it knee} at the wavenumber of barotropic instability.The spectrum is related to known geophysical phenomena and shown to be consistent with physical dimensional reasoning for the problem. The appropriate Reynolds number for the phenomena is $Re\approx 10^{10}$.Comment: RevTeX file, 4 pages, 4 postscript figures available upon request from Richard Everson <[email protected]

Comparison of some Reduced Representation Approximations

In the field of numerical approximation, specialists considering highly complex problems have recently proposed various ways to simplify their underlying problems. In this field, depending on the problem they were tackling and the community that are at work, different approaches have been developed with some success and have even gained some maturity, the applications can now be applied to information analysis or for numerical simulation of PDE's. At this point, a crossed analysis and effort for understanding the similarities and the differences between these approaches that found their starting points in different backgrounds is of interest. It is the purpose of this paper to contribute to this effort by comparing some constructive reduced representations of complex functions. We present here in full details the Adaptive Cross Approximation (ACA) and the Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM) together with other approaches that enter in the same category

Anomalous asymmetry of magnetoresistance in NbSe3_3 single crystals

A pronounced asymmetry of magnetoresistance with respect to the magnetic field direction is observed for NbSe$_3$ crystals placed in a magnetic field perpendicular to their conducting planes. It is shown that the effect persists in a wide temperature range and manifests itself starting from a certain magnetic induction value $B_0$, which at $T=4.2$ K corresponds to the transition to the quantum limit, i.to the state where the Landay level splitting exceeds the temperature.Comment: 4 pages, 6 figures, to be appeared in JETP Let