67 research outputs found

    Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios

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    Hillslope scale soil moisture variability in a steep alpine terrain

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    In this study we analyse space\u2013time variability of soil moisture data collected at 0\u20136, 0\u201312 and 0\u201320 cm depth over three hillslopes with contrasting steep relief and shallow soil depth in the Dolomites (central- eastern Italian Alps). The data have been collected during two summer seasons (2005 and 2006) with dif- ferent precipitation distribution. Analysis of soil moisture data shows that different physical processes control the space\u2013time distribution of soil moisture at the three soil depths, with a marked effect of dew on the 0\u20136 cm soil depth layer. The range of skewness values decreases markedly from the surface to deeper layers. More symmetric distributions, characterised by relatively low skewness, are found for mid-range soil moisture contents, while highly skewed distributions (generally with more log\u2013normal shape) are found at dry and wet conditions. Scatter plots drawn for the whole data set and the analysis of the correlation coefficients suggest a good persistence of soil moisture with depth: the highest degree of correlation was observed between data collected at 0\u201312 and 0\u201320 cm. Examination of correlation between soil moisture fields and topographical attributes shows that, not- withstanding the steep relief and the humid conditions, terrain indices are relatively poor predictors of soil moisture spatial variability. The slope and the topographic wetness index, which are found here the best univariate spatial predictors of soil moisture, explains up to 42% of the time-averaged moisture spatial variation. A negative relationship between the soil moisture spatial mean and the corresponding spatial standard deviation is found for mean water contents exceeding 25\u201330%, while a transition to a positive relation- ship is observed with drier conditions. Overall, soil moisture variability shows the highest values at mod- erate moisture conditions (23\u201329%) and reduced values for wetter and drier conditions for all depths. A negative linear relationship between mean soil moisture content and the coefficient of variation was observed. A soil moisture dynamics model proved to successfully capture the soil moisture variability at the hill- slope scale. The simulated time series of hillslope-averaged soil moisture are in good agreement with the observed ones. Moreover, the model reproduces consistently the observed relationships between soil moisture spatial mean and corresponding variability

    Hemodynamic and autonomic adjustments to real life stress conditions in humans

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    Psychological stress represents a risk factor for hypertension, but mechanisms are not known in detail. In this investigation we tested the hypothesis that real-life stress conditions produce changes in autonomic cardiac and vascular regulation that might differ in magnitude. University students, a well-established model of mild real-life stress, were examined shortly before a university examination, and a second time 3 months afterward, during holiday. Autonomic cardiovascular regulation was assessed by a noninvasive approach, based on autoregressive analysis of RR interval variability (V) and of systolic arterial pressure (SAP) V. The overall level of stress in the two sessions was gauged from the elevated salivary cortisol (5.6+/-0.5 versus 2.4+/-0.2 ng/mL, P<0.05) and altered cytokine profile (P<0.05). During the stress day, the RR interval was reduced and arterial pressure increased significantly; simultaneously, the normalized low frequency component of RRV (a marker of sympathetic modulation of the sinoatrial node) was increased and the index alpha (a measure of baroreflex gain) reduced. Concomitantly, the autonomic response to the sympathetic excitation produced by standing was altered: cardiac response was impaired and vascular responsiveness increased. Markers of autonomic regulation of the sinoatrial node correlated significantly with cortisol levels, both at rest and also considering standing induced changes, suggesting a gradual range of effects. The data support the concept that mild real-life stress increases arterial pressure and impairs cardiovascular homeostasis. These changes, assessable with spectral analysis of cardiovascular variability, might contribute, in susceptible individuals, to the link between psychological stress and increased cardiovascular risk of hypertension

    Controls on event runoff coefficients in the eastern Italian Alps

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    Analyses of event runoff coefficients provide essential insight on catchment response, particularly if a range of catchments and a range of events are compared by a single indicator. In this study we examine the effect of climate, geology, land use, flood types and initial soil moisture conditions on the distribution functions of the event runoff coefficients for a set of 14 mountainous catchments located in the eastern Italian Alps, ranging in size from 7.3 to 608.4 km2. Runoff coefficients were computed from hourly precipitation, runoff data and estimates of snowmelt. A total of 535 events were analysed over the period 1989\u20132004. We classified each basin using a \u2018\u2018permeability index\u201d which was inferred from a geologic map and ranged from \u2018\u2018low\u201d to \u2018\u2018high permeability\u201d. A continuous soil moisture accounting model was applied to each catchment to classify \u2018wet\u2019 and \u2018dry\u2019 initial soil moisture conditions. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of runoff coefficients is highly correlated with mean annual precipitation, with the mean runoff coefficient increasing with mean annual precipitation. Geology, through the \u2018permeability index\u2019, is another important control on runoff coefficients for catchments with mean annual precipitation less than 1200 mm. Land use, as indexed by the SCS curve number, influences runoff coefficient distribution to a lesser degree. An analysis of the runoff coefficients by flood type indicates that runoff coefficients increase with event snowmelt. Results show that there exists an intermediate region of subsurface water storage capacity, as indexed by a flow\u2013duration curve-based index, which maximises the impact of initial wetness conditions on the runoff coefficient. This means that the difference between runoff coefficients characterised by wet and dry initial conditions is negligible both for basins with very large storage capacity and for basins with small storage capacity. For basins with intermediate storage capacities, the impact of the initial wetness conditions may be relatively large

    Flash flood warning based on rainfall depth-duration thresholds and soil moisture conditions: An assessment for gauged and ungauged basins

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    The main objective of this paper is to evaluate a threshold-based flash flood warning method, by considering a wide range of climatic and physiographic conditions, and by focusing on ungauged basins. The method is derived from the flash flood guidance (FFG, hereafter) approach. The FFG is the depth of rain of a given duration, taken as uniform in space and time on a certain basin, necessary to cause minor flooding at the outlet of the considered basin. This rainfall depth, which is computed based on a hydrological model, is compared to either real-time-observed or forecasted rainfall of the same duration and on the same basin. If the nowcasted or forecasted rainfall depth is greater than the FFG, then flooding in the basin is considered likely. The study provides an assessment of this technique based on operational quality data from 11 mountainous basins (six nested included in five larger parent basins) located in north-eastern Italy and central France. The model used in this study is a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall\u2013runoff model, following the structure of the PDM (probability distributed moisture) model. Two general questions are addressed: (1) How does the efficiency of the method evolve when the simulation parameters can not be calibrated but must be transposed from parent gauged basins to ungauged basins? (2) How sensitive are the results to the method used to estimate the initial soil moisture status? System performances are evaluated by means of categorical statistics, such as the critical success index (CSI). Results show that overall CSI is equal to 0.43 for the parent basins, where the hydrological model has been calibrated. CSI reduces to 0.28 for the interior basins, when model parameters are transposed from parent basins, and to 0.21, when both model parameters and soil moisture status is transposed from parent basins. Performance differences between FFG and use of time constant soil moisture status are very high for the parent basins and decrease with decreasing the system accuracy. The percent difference amounts to 53% for the parent basins, to 25% for interior basins with parameter transposition, and to 19% for interior basins with parameter and soil moisture status transposition. These results improve our understanding of the applicability and reliability of this method at various scales and under various scenarios of data availability
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