Malaria ecology, child mortality & fertility.

The broad determinants of fertility are thought to be reasonably well identified by demographers, though the detailed quantitative drivers of fertility levels and changes are less well understood. This paper uses a novel ecological index of malaria transmission to study the effect of child mortality on fertility. We find that temporal variation in the ecology of the disease is well-correlated to mortality, and pernicious malaria conditions lead to higher fertility rates. We then argue that most of this effect occurs through child mortality, and estimate the effect of child mortality changes on fertility. Our findings add to the literature on disease and fertility, and contribute to the suggestive evidence that child mortality reductions have a causal effect on fertility changes

Scaling Up Malaria Control in Africa: An Economic and Epidemiological Assessment

This paper estimates the number of people at risk of contracting malaria in Africa using GIS methods and the disease's epidemiologic characteristics. It then estimates yearly costs of covering the population at risk with the package of interventions (differing by level of malaria endemicity and differing for rural and urban populations) for malaria as recommended by the UN Millennium Project. These projected costs are calculated assuming a ramp-up of coverage to full coverage by 2008, and then projected out through 2015 to give a year-by-year cost of meeting the Millennium Development Goal for reducing the burden of malaria by 75% We conclude that the cost of comprehensive malaria control for Africa is US$3.0 billion per year on average, or around US$4.02 per African at risk.

Africa's Lagging Demographic Transition: Evidence from Exogenous Impacts of Malaria Ecology and Agricultural Technology

Much of Africa has not yet gone through a "demographic transition" to reduced mortality and fertility rates. The fact that the continent's countries remain mired in a Malthusian crisis of high mortality, high fertility, and rapid population growth (with an accompanying state of chronic extreme poverty) has been attributed to many factors ranging from the status of women, pro-natalist policies, poverty itself, and social institutions. There remains, however, a large degree of uncertainty among demographers as to the relative importance of these factors on a comparative or historical basis. Moreover, econometric estimation is complicated by endogeneity among fertility and other variables of interest. We attempt to improve estimation (particularly of the effect of the child mortality variable) by deploying exogenous variation in the ecology of malaria transmission and in agricultural productivity through the staggered introduction of Green Revolution, high-yield seed varieties. Results show that child mortality (proxied by infant mortality) is by far the most important factor among those explaining aggregate total fertility rates, followed by farm productivity. Female literacy (or schooling) and aggregate income do not seem to matter as much, comparatively.

The Ethics of Futility Across the Age Continuum

Much has been written on the topic of medical futility with reports of its existence dating back to the time of Hippocrates. However, the majority of the research on the topic has been on the adult population. Very little literature addresses the presence of medically futile treatment across the age continuum identifying issues that impact neonates, pediatrics, as well as adults. This dissertation addresses the gap in the literature by considering the ethical problem of medical futility across the age continuum. By addressing the common thread of futility, there is an imperative for a call to action that encompasses the span of organizational ethics. This span not only includes the clinical and professional ethics, but also the business ethics. A broad review of the literature on both medical futility and moral distress was accomplished. This yielded an integrative approach to the ethics of medical futility at the end-of-life across the age continuum as well as its effect on the moral distress of the nurses caring for these patients. Findings indicate that medical futility, or inappropriate medical treatments at the end-of-life, are to be found in all critical care units across the age continuum. Although there are commonalities, each age group contends with ethical dilemmas surrounding the ethics of inappropriate medical treatments that are specific to their age group. The inappropriate medical treatments are not only the number one cause of moral distress in nurses, but also create moral distress for physicians and other allied health professionals. Increasing the conversation across the age continuum, that begins in nursing and medical schools, is needed to increase the awareness of medical futility and develop strategies to confront it. Improving communication, plus the use of advance directives and palliative care for all age groups, holds the greatest hope for the future in minimizing futile treatments at the end-of-life

Faith-based instructional interventions: the relationship of the short-term mission trip with the spiritual-formation disciplines of mainline Protestant Christian traditions

This study examined the relationship between the short-term mission trip experience and participation in spiritual-formation disciplines for individuals identifying with mainline protestant Christian traditions. The study was causal comparative and primarily concerned with comparing the independent variable of a short-term mission trip experience with several dependent variables. These variables included participation in prayer, service, worship, study, giving, and witness related disciplines as well as the integration of faith into everyday life. The primary research question asked whether there was a significant relationship between a short-term mission trip experience and self-reported participation in Christian spiritual-formation disciplines. Participants included individuals ranging in ages from 13 through 24, who identified as being engaged with either the Baptist, Methodist, or Presbyterian traditions. Participants were part of the National Study of Youth and Religion (NSYR) and were surveyed three distinct times over a six-year period. Due to the longitudinal nature of the NSYR, it was possible to identify a short-term mission trip as a treatment. This treatment allowed for the comparison of survey responses, both before and after a responder reported participating in a short-term mission trip experience. It was also possible to compare responses between peer groups: those who reported mission experience and those who did not. After analyzing survey responses for seven distinct comparison groups across three survey waves, the study showed little to no evidence of a significant difference in the levels of participation in spiritual-formation disciplines following engagement in a short-term mission trip experience. Results did demonstrate a theme of declined participation in spiritual disciplines for individuals who did not participate in a short-term mission trip experience. Results also suggested differences in participation levels for those experiencing a short-term mission versus those who did not, during the timeframes before and after the experience. However, on the whole, for individuals reporting a short-term mission trip experience, participation levels neither increased nor decreased following the experience. The results of this study suggest a continued need for the research based conversation concerning the short-term mission trip, including its value as an instructional intervention for spiritual-formation

Bridging the Gap – Enhancing Private Investment in Future Infrastructure Provision

This research enhances understanding of the infrastructure investment landscape within six countries, Canada, China, India, Singapore, the UK and the US. We find differences in maturity, transparency and openness to international investment across the six countries Through a comprehensive series of interviews with investors, developers, policy makers and advisers we highlight the importance of governments as ‘facilitators’ of private infrastructure investment; providing strategic vision, sustained political commitment and, perhaps most importantly, active project pipelines. The protracted and uncertain nature of infrastructure development pipelines and the complexities in governance frameworks that support infrastructure provision have been considerable barriers to enhanced private investment. Our research has shown that more efficient procurement and investment models for greenfield projects would also enhance private sector investment flows, which in turn would contribute to the re-allocation of the societal and economic benefits associated with new infrastructure provision

Africa's Lagging Demographic Transition: Evidence from Exogenous Impacts of Malaria Ecology and Agricultural Technology

Much of Africa has not yet gone through a "demographic transition" to reduced mortality and fertility rates. The fact that the continent's countries remain mired in a Malthusian crisis of high mortality, high fertility, and rapid population growth (with an accompanying state of chronic extreme poverty) has been attributed to many factors ranging from the status of women, pro-natalist policies, poverty itself, and social institutions. There remains, however, a large degree of uncertainty among demographers as to the relative importance of these factors on a comparative or historical basis. Moreover, econometric estimation is complicated by endogeneity among fertility and other variables of interest. We attempt to improve estimation (particularly of the effect of the child mortality variable) by deploying exogenous variation in the ecology of malaria transmission and in agricultural productivity through the staggered introduction of Green Revolution, high-yield seed varieties. Results show that child mortality (proxied by infant mortality) is by far the most important factor among those explaining aggregate total fertility rates, followed by farm productivity. Female literacy (or schooling) and aggregate income do not seem to matter as much, comparatively

Biomass Dynamics of Tipula (Insecta: Diptera) in Forested Streams of the Interior Highlands, Arkansas

Abundance patterns of aquatic macroinvertebrates that utilize coarse particulate organic matter as a food source are important indicators of non--point source pollution associated with silviculture activities. This group, referred to as shredders, typically decreases in abundance as its food source—primarily leaves—is removed from the ecosystem. We tested whether larval biomass of the crane fly Tipula, a common member of the group, was an effective estimator of shredder abundance. Additionally, we used regression analysis to test whether the length to dry mass relationship of Tipula differed among geographic regions, between seasons, and between years. Results did not indicate significant differences in the relationship among these variables. Thus, we concluded that a general length to dry mass relationship was appropriate for Tipula in streams of the Interior Highlands. Our results were similar to those reported from North Carolina and Virginia. Tipula biomass was positively correlated with the total richness of the macroinvertebrate assemblage, a common measurement of stream quality, but was not correlated with the numerical abundance of the shredder functional feeding group. Thus, we concluded that Tipula biomass would not be an effective surrogate for whole assemblage metrics in biological assessments

Evidence for a dynamic phase transition in [Co/Pt]_3 magnetic multilayers

A dynamic phase transition (DPT) with respect to the period P of an applied alternating magnetic field has been observed previously in numerical simulations of magnetic systems. However, experimental evidence for this DPT has thus far been limited to qualitative observations of hysteresis loop collapse in studies of hysteresis loop area scaling. Here, we present significantly stronger evidence for the experimental observation of this DPT, in a [Co(4 A)/Pt(7 A)]_3-multilayer system with strong perpendicular anisotropy. We applied an out-of-plane, time-varying (sawtooth) field to the [Co/Pt]_3 multilayer, in the presence of a small additional constant field, H_b. We then measured the resulting out-of-plane magnetization time series to produce nonequilibrium phase diagrams (NEPDs) of the cycle-averaged magnetization, Q, and its variance, Var(Q), as functions of P and H_b. The experimental NEPDs are found to strongly resemble those calculated from simulations of a kinetic Ising model under analagous conditions. The similarity of the experimental and simulated NEPDs, in particular the presence of a localized peak in the variance Var(Q) in the experimental results, constitutes strong evidence for the presence of this DPT in our magnetic multilayer samples. Technical challenges related to the hysteretic nature and response time of the electromagnet used to generate the time-varying applied field precluded us from extracting meaningful critical scaling exponents from the current data. However, based on our results, we propose refinements to the experimental procedure which could potentially enable the determination of critical exponents in the future.Comment: substantial revision; 26 pages, 9 figures; to appear in Phys. Rev.