Africa's Lagging Demographic Transition: Evidence from Exogenous Impacts of Malaria Ecology and Agricultural Technology

Much of Africa has not yet gone through a "demographic transition" to reduced mortality and fertility rates. The fact that the continent's countries remain mired in a Malthusian crisis of high mortality, high fertility, and rapid population growth (with an accompanying state of chronic extreme poverty) has been attributed to many factors ranging from the status of women, pro-natalist policies, poverty itself, and social institutions. There remains, however, a large degree of uncertainty among demographers as to the relative importance of these factors on a comparative or historical basis. Moreover, econometric estimation is complicated by endogeneity among fertility and other variables of interest. We attempt to improve estimation (particularly of the effect of the child mortality variable) by deploying exogenous variation in the ecology of malaria transmission and in agricultural productivity through the staggered introduction of Green Revolution, high-yield seed varieties. Results show that child mortality (proxied by infant mortality) is by far the most important factor among those explaining aggregate total fertility rates, followed by farm productivity. Female literacy (or schooling) and aggregate income do not seem to matter as much, comparatively.

Malaria ecology, child mortality & fertility.

The broad determinants of fertility are thought to be reasonably well identified by demographers, though the detailed quantitative drivers of fertility levels and changes are less well understood. This paper uses a novel ecological index of malaria transmission to study the effect of child mortality on fertility. We find that temporal variation in the ecology of the disease is well-correlated to mortality, and pernicious malaria conditions lead to higher fertility rates. We then argue that most of this effect occurs through child mortality, and estimate the effect of child mortality changes on fertility. Our findings add to the literature on disease and fertility, and contribute to the suggestive evidence that child mortality reductions have a causal effect on fertility changes

Scaling Up Malaria Control in Africa: An Economic and Epidemiological Assessment

This paper estimates the number of people at risk of contracting malaria in Africa using GIS methods and the disease's epidemiologic characteristics. It then estimates yearly costs of covering the population at risk with the package of interventions (differing by level of malaria endemicity and differing for rural and urban populations) for malaria as recommended by the UN Millennium Project. These projected costs are calculated assuming a ramp-up of coverage to full coverage by 2008, and then projected out through 2015 to give a year-by-year cost of meeting the Millennium Development Goal for reducing the burden of malaria by 75% We conclude that the cost of comprehensive malaria control for Africa is US$3.0 billion per year on average, or around US$4.02 per African at risk.

Biomass Dynamics of Tipula (Insecta: Diptera) in Forested Streams of the Interior Highlands, Arkansas

Abundance patterns of aquatic macroinvertebrates that utilize coarse particulate organic matter as a food source are important indicators of non--point source pollution associated with silviculture activities. This group, referred to as shredders, typically decreases in abundance as its food source—primarily leaves—is removed from the ecosystem. We tested whether larval biomass of the crane fly Tipula, a common member of the group, was an effective estimator of shredder abundance. Additionally, we used regression analysis to test whether the length to dry mass relationship of Tipula differed among geographic regions, between seasons, and between years. Results did not indicate significant differences in the relationship among these variables. Thus, we concluded that a general length to dry mass relationship was appropriate for Tipula in streams of the Interior Highlands. Our results were similar to those reported from North Carolina and Virginia. Tipula biomass was positively correlated with the total richness of the macroinvertebrate assemblage, a common measurement of stream quality, but was not correlated with the numerical abundance of the shredder functional feeding group. Thus, we concluded that Tipula biomass would not be an effective surrogate for whole assemblage metrics in biological assessments

Africa's Lagging Demographic Transition: Evidence from Exogenous Impacts of Malaria Ecology and Agricultural Technology

Much of Africa has not yet gone through a "demographic transition" to reduced mortality and fertility rates. The fact that the continent's countries remain mired in a Malthusian crisis of high mortality, high fertility, and rapid population growth (with an accompanying state of chronic extreme poverty) has been attributed to many factors ranging from the status of women, pro-natalist policies, poverty itself, and social institutions. There remains, however, a large degree of uncertainty among demographers as to the relative importance of these factors on a comparative or historical basis. Moreover, econometric estimation is complicated by endogeneity among fertility and other variables of interest. We attempt to improve estimation (particularly of the effect of the child mortality variable) by deploying exogenous variation in the ecology of malaria transmission and in agricultural productivity through the staggered introduction of Green Revolution, high-yield seed varieties. Results show that child mortality (proxied by infant mortality) is by far the most important factor among those explaining aggregate total fertility rates, followed by farm productivity. Female literacy (or schooling) and aggregate income do not seem to matter as much, comparatively

Evidence of Titan's Climate History from Evaporite Distribution

Water-ice-poor, 5-$\mu$m-bright material on Saturn's moon Titan has previously been geomorphologically identified as evaporitic. Here we present a global distribution of the occurrences of the 5-$\mu$m-bright spectral unit, identified with Cassini's Visual Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) and examined with RADAR when possible. We explore the possibility that each of these occurrences are evaporite deposits. The 5-$\mu$m-bright material covers 1\% of Titan's surface and is not limited to the poles (the only regions with extensive, long-lived surface liquid). We find the greatest areal concentration to be in the equatorial basins Tui Regio and Hotei Regio. Our interpretations, based on the correlation between 5-$\mu$m-bright material and lakebeds, imply that there was enough liquid present at some time to create the observed 5-$\mu$m-bright material. We address the climate implications surrounding a lack of evaporitic material at the south polar basins: if the south pole basins were filled at some point in the past, then where is the evaporite

Evidence for a dynamic phase transition in [Co/Pt]_3 magnetic multilayers

A dynamic phase transition (DPT) with respect to the period P of an applied alternating magnetic field has been observed previously in numerical simulations of magnetic systems. However, experimental evidence for this DPT has thus far been limited to qualitative observations of hysteresis loop collapse in studies of hysteresis loop area scaling. Here, we present significantly stronger evidence for the experimental observation of this DPT, in a [Co(4 A)/Pt(7 A)]_3-multilayer system with strong perpendicular anisotropy. We applied an out-of-plane, time-varying (sawtooth) field to the [Co/Pt]_3 multilayer, in the presence of a small additional constant field, H_b. We then measured the resulting out-of-plane magnetization time series to produce nonequilibrium phase diagrams (NEPDs) of the cycle-averaged magnetization, Q, and its variance, Var(Q), as functions of P and H_b. The experimental NEPDs are found to strongly resemble those calculated from simulations of a kinetic Ising model under analagous conditions. The similarity of the experimental and simulated NEPDs, in particular the presence of a localized peak in the variance Var(Q) in the experimental results, constitutes strong evidence for the presence of this DPT in our magnetic multilayer samples. Technical challenges related to the hysteretic nature and response time of the electromagnet used to generate the time-varying applied field precluded us from extracting meaningful critical scaling exponents from the current data. However, based on our results, we propose refinements to the experimental procedure which could potentially enable the determination of critical exponents in the future.Comment: substantial revision; 26 pages, 9 figures; to appear in Phys. Rev.

The contamination of the surface of Vesta by impacts and the delivery of the dark material

The Dawn spacecraft observed the presence of dark material, which in turn proved to be associated with OH and H-rich material, on the surface of Vesta. The source of this dark material has been identified with the low albedo asteroids, but it is still a matter of debate whether the delivery of the dark material is associated with a few large impact events, to micrometeorites or to the continuous, secular flux of impactors on Vesta. The continuous flux scenario predicts that a significant fraction of the exogenous material accreted by Vesta should be due to non-dark impactors likely analogous to ordinary chondrites, which instead represent only a minor contaminant in the HED meteorites. We explored the continuous flux scenario and its implications for the composition of the vestan regolith, taking advantage of the data from the Dawn mission and the HED meteorites. We used our model to show that the stochastic events scenario and the micrometeoritic flux scenario are natural consequences of the continuous flux scenario. We then used the model to estimate the amounts of dark and hydroxylate materials delivered on Vesta since the LHB and we showed how our results match well with the values estimated by the Dawn mission. We used our model to assess the amount of Fe and siderophile elements that the continuous flux of impactors would mix in the vestan regolith: concerning the siderophile elements, we focused our attention on the role of Ni. The results are in agreement with the data available on the Fe and Ni content of the HED meteorites and can be used as a reference frame in future studies of the data from the Dawn mission and of the HED meteorites. Our model cannot yet provide an answer to the fate of the missing non-carbonaceous contaminants, but we discuss possible reasons for this discrepancy.Comment: 31 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables. Accepted for publication on the journal ICARUS, "Dark and Bright Materials on Vesta" special issu

IR-dust observations of Comet Tempel 2 with CRAF VIMS

Measurement strategies are now being planned for using the Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) to observe the asteroid Hestia, and the nucleus, and the gas and dust in the coma of comet P/Tempel 2 as part of the Comet Rendezvous Asteroid Flyby (CRAF) mission. The spectral range of VIMS will cover wavelengths from 0.35 to 5.2 micrometers, with a spectral resolution of 11 nm from 0.35 to 2.4 micrometers and of 22 nm from 2.4 to 5.2 micrometers. The instantaneous field of view (IFOV) provided by the foreoptics is 0.5 milliradians, and the current design of the instrument provides for a scanning secondary mirror which will scan a swath of length 72 IFOVs. The CRAF high resolution scan platform motion will permit slewing VIMS in a direction perpendicular to the swath. This enables the building of a two dimensional image in any or all wavelength channels. Important measurements of the dust coma will include the onset of early coma activity, the mapping of gas and dust jets and correlations with active nucleus areas, observations of the dust coma from various scattering phase angles, coverage of the low wavelength portion of the thermal radiation, and the 3.4 micrometer hydrocarbon emission. A description of the VIMS instrument is presented