Maximum likelihood and pseudo score approaches for parametric time-to-event analysis with informative entry times

We develop a maximum likelihood estimating approach for time-to-event Weibull regression models with outcome-dependent sampling, where sampling of subjects is dependent on the residual fraction of the time left to developing the event of interest. Additionally, we propose a two-stage approach which proceeds by iteratively estimating, through a pseudo score, the Weibull parameters of interest (i.e., the regression parameters) conditional on the inverse probability of sampling weights; and then re-estimating these weights (given the updated Weibull parameter estimates) through the profiled full likelihood. With these two new methods, both the estimated sampling mechanism parameters and the Weibull parameters are consistently estimated under correct specification of the conditional referral distribution. Standard errors for the regression parameters are obtained directly from inverting the observed information matrix in the full likelihood specification and by either calculating bootstrap or robust standard errors for the hybrid pseudo score/profiled likelihood approach. Loss of efficiency with the latter approach is considered. Robustness of the proposed methods to misspecification of the referral mechanism and the time-to-event distribution is also briefly examined. Further, we show how to extend our methods to the family of parametric time-to-event distributions characterized by the generalized gamma distribution. The motivation for these two approaches came from data on time to cirrhosis from hepatitis C viral infection in patients referred to the Edinburgh liver clinic. We analyze these data here.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS725 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Dosage compensation in birds

AbstractThe Z and W sex chromosomes of birds have evolved independently from the mammalian X and Y chromosomes [1]. Unlike mammals, female birds are heterogametic (ZW), while males are homogametic (ZZ). Therefore male birds, like female mammals, carry a double dose of sex-linked genes relative to the other sex. Other animals with nonhomologous sex chromosomes possess “dosage compensation” systems to equalize the expression of sex-linked genes. Dosage compensation occurs in animals as diverse as mammals, insects, and nematodes, although the mechanisms involved differ profoundly [2]. In birds, however, it is widely accepted that dosage compensation does not occur [3–5], and the differential expression of Z-linked genes has been suggested to underlie the avian sex-determination mechanism [6]. Here we show equivalent expression of at least six of nine Z chromosome genes in male and female chick embryos by using real-time quantitative PCR [7]. Only the Z-linked ScII gene, whose ortholog in Caenorhabditis elegans plays a crucial role in dosage compensation [8], escapes compensation by this assay. Our results imply that the majority of Z-linked genes in the chicken are dosage compensated

Deep shower interpretation of the cosmic ray events observed in excess of the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin energy

We consider the possibility that the ultra-high-energy cosmic ray flux has a small component of exotic particles which create showers much deeper in the atmosphere than ordinary hadronic primaries. It is shown that applying the conventional AGASA/HiRes/Auger data analysis procedures to such exotic events results in large systematic biases in the energy spectrum measurement. SubGZK exotic showers may be mis-reconstructed with much higher energies and mimick superGZK events. Alternatively, superGZK exotic showers may elude detection by conventional fluorescence analysis techniques.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figure

INTEGRAL high energy behaviour of 4U 1812-12

The low mass X-ray binary system 4U 1812-12 was monitored with the INTEGRAL observatory in the period 2003-2004 and with BeppoSAX on April 20, 2000. We report here on the spectral and temporal analysis of both persistent and burst emission. The full data set confirms the persistent nature of this burster, and reveals the presence of emission up to 200 keV. The persistent spectrum is well described by a comptonization (CompTT) model plus a soft blackbody component. The source was observed in a hard spectral state with a 1-200 keV luminosity of 2*10^(36) ergs/s and L/LEdd~1% and no meaningful flux variation has been revealed, as also confirmed by a 2004 RXTE observation. We have also detected 4 bursts showing double peaked profiles and blackbody spectra with temperatures ranging from 1.9 to 3.1 keV.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication by A&

Signature of elasticity in the Faraday instability

We investigate the onset of the Faraday instability in a vertically vibrated wormlike micelle solution. In this strongly viscoelastic fluid, the critical acceleration and wavenumber are shown to present oscillations as a function of driving frequency and fluid height. This effect, unseen neither in simple fluids nor in previous experiments on polymeric fluids, is interpreted in terms of standing elastic waves between the disturbed surface and the container bottom. It is shown that the model of S. Kumar [Phys. Rev. E, {\bf 65}, 026305 (2002)] for a viscoelastic fluid accounts qualitatively for our experimental observations. Explanations for quantitative discrepancies are proposed, such as the influence of the nonlinear rheological behaviour of this complex fluid.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Reconstruction of nuclear charged fragment trajectories from a large gap sweeper magnet

A new method to reconstruct charged fragment four-momentum vectors from measured trajectories behind an open, large gap, magnetic dispersion element (a sweeper magnet) has been developed. In addition to the position and angle behind the magnet it includes the position measurement in the dispersive direction at the target. The method improves the energy and angle resolution of the reconstruction significantly for experiments with fast rare isotopes, where the beam size at the target position is large.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Nucl. Instrum. Meth.