Predicting the Amplitude of a Solar Cycle Using the North-South Asymmetry in the Previous Cycle: II. An Improved Prediction for Solar Cycle~24

Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874-2006, (Javaraiah, MNRAS, 377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of -1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112 + or - 13 and 74 + or -10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that in case of (1), the north-south asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years in advance, and we get 103 + or -10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north-south difference used in (3). By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get 87 + or - 7 for the amplitude of cycle 24.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, Published in Solar Physics 252, 419-439 (2008

Success of an International Learning Health Care System in Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation: The American Society of Blood and Marrow Transplantation Clinical Case Forum

The ASBMT Clinical Case Forum (CCF) was launched in 2014 as an online secure tool to enhance interaction and communication among hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) professionals worldwide through the discussion of challenging clinical care issues. After 14 months, we reviewed clinical and demographical data on cases posted in the CCF from 1/29/2014 to 3/18/2015. A total of 137 cases were posted during the study period. Ninety-two cases (67%) were allogeneic HCT, 29 (21%) autologous HCT and in 16 (12%) the type of transplant (auto vs. allo) was still under consideration. The diseases most frequently discussed included non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL; n = 30, 22%), acute myeloid leukemia (AML; n = 23, 17%) and multiple myeloma (MM; n = 20, 15%). When compared with the US transplant activity reported by the US Department of Health and Human Services, NHL and acute lymphoblastic leukemia cases were overrepresented in the CCF while myeloma was underrepresented (P < 0.001). A total of 259 topics were addressed in the CCF with a median of two topics/case (range 1-6). Particularly common topics included whether transplant was indicated (n = 57, 41%), conditioning regimen choice (n = 44, 32%), and post-HCT complications after day 100 (n = 43, 31%). The ASBMT CCF is a successful tool for collaborative discussion of complex cases in the HCT community worldwide and may allow identification of areas of controversy or unmet need from clinical, educational and research perspectives

Lasers and ancillary treatments for scar management Part 2: Keloid, hypertrophic, pigmented and acne scars

The formation of a wide range of excessive scars following various skin injuries is a natural consequence of healing. Scars resulting from surgery or trauma affect approximately 100 million people per annum in the developed world and can have profound physical, aesthetic, psychological and social consequences. Thus, scar treatment is a priority for patient and physician alike. Laser treatment plays an important role in scar management with additional support from ancillary modalities. Subsequent to part 1: Burns scars, part 2 focuses on our strategies and literature review of treatment of keloid, hypertrophic, pigmented and acne scars where lasers are used in conjunction with other measures, and illustrated with case studies

Temporal variations of low-order spherical harmonic representations of sunspot group patterns: Evidence for solar spin-orbit coupling

The spatial and temporal patterns of sunspot groups spanning 125 years are explored using surface spherical harmonic (SSH) analysis at a temporal resolution of one Carrington Rotation (CR). SSHs spanning order, $1 \leq m \leq 12$, and degree, l, satisfying $(l-m) \leq 12$ are calculated for each CR from 300 to 1950 and are expressed as amplitude and spatial phase for each CR. Linear combinations of harmonics (lcSSHS), grouped by constant m and either even or odd l values, generate sectoral constructs with maximal power within the sunspot latitude band. The temporal variations of the lcSSHs describe the variations in longitudinal distributions of sunspot groups. The frequency components of these variations are examined separately using singular spectrum, Fourier, and wavelet analyses. The spatial phases of the lcSSHs display long-term secular, retrograde motions with superimposed near-decadal torsional oscillations. Two of these oscillatory components appear identifiable. One is an artifact of the differential rotation of the photosphere and has an 11-yr period. The other is in near synchrony with the proposed d$L/$dt series representing the torque on the Sun as it orbits the solar system barycenter. In contrast, each of the amplitude series for the lcSSHs follow an 11-yr solar cycle envelope but also contain a strong periodic component at 5.6 years and multiple components with periods between 15–30 years. Several of these oscillations are predictable from spin-orbit coupling considerations. At finer time scales (~20 CR), there is also evidence for abrupt spatial phase shifts consistent with standing waves at a surface or interface. The conclusion is that SSH decomposition of sunspot patterns can be used to extract intensity and drift variations at several time scales. The intermediate time scale contains evidence that solar activity is modulated by the Sun's motion around the solar system barycenter.