Median-Unbiased Estimation in DF-GLS Regressions and the PPP Puzzle

Using median-unbiased estimation based on Augmented-Dickey-Fuller (ADF) regressions, recent research has questioned the validity of Rogoff's "remarkable consensus" of 3-5 year half-lives of deviations from PPP. The confidence intervals of these half-life estimates, however, are extremely wide, with lower bounds of about one year and upper bounds of infinity. We extend median-unbiased estimation to the DF-GLS regression of Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996). We find that combining median-unbiased estimation with this regression has the potential to tighten confidence intervals for the half-lives. Using long horizon real exchange rate data, we find that the typical lower bound of the confidence intervals for median-unbiased half-lives is just under 3 years. Thus, while previous confidence intervals for median-unbiased half-lives are consistent with virtually anything, our tighter confidence intervals are inconsistent with economic models with nominal rigidities as candidates for explaining the observed behavior of real exchange rates and move us away from solving the PPP puzzle.PPP puzzle, median-unbiased, persistence.

Purchasing power parity and country characteristics: evidence fron panel data tests

Abstract We examine long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) using panel data methods to test for unit roots in US dollar real exchange rates of 84 countries. We find stronger evidence of PPP in countries more open to trade, closer to the United States, with lower inflation and moderate nominal exchange rate volatility, and with similar economic growth rates as the United States. We also show that PPP holds for panels of European and Latin American countries, but not for African and Asian countries. Our findings demonstrate that country characteristics can help explain both adherence to and deviations from long-run PPP. JEL classification: F31, O5

Long Hole Film Cooling Dataset for CFD Development - Flow and Film Effectiveness

An experiment investigating flow and heat transfer of long (length to diameter ratio of 18) cylindrical film cooling holes has been completed. In this paper, the thermal field in the flow and on the surface of the film cooled flat plate is presented for nominal freestream turbulence intensities of 1.5 and 8 percent. The holes are inclined at 30 deg above the downstream direction, injecting chilled air of density ratio 1.0 onto the surface of a flat plate. The diameter of the hole is 0.75 in. (approx. 0.02 m) with center to center spacing (pitch) of 3 hole diameters. Coolant was injected into the mainstream flow at nominal blowing ratios of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0. The Reynolds number of the freestream was approximately 11,000 based on hole diameter. Thermocouple surveys were used to characterize the thermal field. Infrared thermography was used to determine the adiabatic film effectiveness on the plate. Hotwire anemometry was used to provide flowfield physics and turbulence measurements. The results are compared to existing data in the literature. The aim of this work is to produce a benchmark dataset for Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) development to eliminate the effects of hole length to diameter ratio and to improve resolution in the near-hole region. In this report, a Time Filtered Navier Stokes (TFNS), also known as Partially Resolved Navier Stokes (PRNS), method that was implemented in the Glenn-HT code is used to model coolant-mainstream interaction. This method is a high fidelity unsteady method that aims to represent large scale flow features and mixing more accurately