A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.BMBF/FKZ:033068

Randomized Trial of Antibiotics in Addition to Tocolytic Therapy to Treat Preterm Labor

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess whether antibiotic therapy plus tocolysis given to women in preterm labor would prolong pregnancy compared with tocolysis alone

Using an in-vitro biofilm model to assess the virulence potential of Bacterial Vaginosis or non-Bacterial Vaginosis Gardnerella vaginalis isolates

Gardnerella vaginalis is the most common species found in bacterial vaginosis (BV). However, it is also present in a significant proportion of healthy women and G. vaginalis vaginal colonization does not always lead to BV. In an effort to better understand the differences between G. vaginalis isolated from women with a positive (BV) versus a negative (non-BV) diagnosis of BV, we compared the virulence potential of 7 BV and 7 non-BV G. vaginalis isolates and assessed the virulence factors related to biofilm formation, namely: initial adhesion and cytotoxic effect, biofilm accumulation, susceptibility to antibiotics, and transcript levels of the known vaginolysin, and sialidase genes. Furthermore, we also determined the ability of G. vaginalis to displace lactobacilli previously adhered to HeLa cells. Our results showed that non-BV strains were less virulent than BV strains, as suggested by the lower cytotoxicity and initial adhesion to Hela cells. Significant differences in expression of known virulence genes were also detected, further suggesting a higher virulence potential of the BV associated G. vaginalis. Importantly, we demonstrated that BV associated G. vaginalis were able to displace pre-coated vaginal protective lactobacilli and we hypothesize this to be a trigger for BV development.European Union funds (FEDER/COMPETE) and by national funds (FCT) under the project with reference FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-008991 (PTDC/BIA-MIC/098228/2008). FCT Strategic Project of UID/BIO/04469/2013 unit the project NORTE-07-0124-FEDER-000027, co-funded by the Programa Operacional Regional do Norte(ON.2 – O Novo Norte), QREN, FEDER, and the project RECI/BBB-EBI/0179/2012 (FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-027462). FCT individual fellowship SFRH/BD/93963/2013

Modeling human-water-systems: towards a comprehensive and spatially distributed assessment of co-evolutions for river basins in Central Europe

In the context of river basin and flood risk management there is a growing need to improve the understanding of and the feedbacks between the driving forces “climate and socio-economy” and water systems. We make use of a variety of data resources to illustrate interrelationships between different constituents of the human-water-systems. Taking water storage for energy production as an example we present a first analysis on the co-evolution of socio-economic and hydrological indicators. The findings will serve as for the development of conceptual, but fully coupled socio-hydrological models for selected sectors and regions. These models will be used to generate integrated scenarios of the climate and socio-economic change

Identifying metabolite markers for preterm birth in cervicovaginal fluid by magnetic resonance spectroscopy

Introduction Preterm birth (PTB) may be preceded by changes in the vaginal microflora and metabolite profiles. Objectives We sought to characterise the metabolite profile of cervicovaginal fluid (CVF) of pregnant women by 1H NMR spectroscopy, and assess their predictive value for PTB. Methods A pair of high-vaginal swabs was obtained from pregnant women with no evidence of clinical infection and grouped as follows: asymptomatic low risk (ALR) women with no previous history of PTB, assessed at 20–22 gestational weeks, g.w., n = 83; asymptomatic high risk (AHR) women with a previous history of PTB, assessed at both 20–22 g.w., n = 71, and 26–28 g.w., n = 58; and women presenting with symptoms of preterm labor (PTL) (SYM), assessed at 24–36 g.w., n = 65. Vaginal secretions were dissolved in phosphate buffered saline and scanned with a 9.4 T NMR spectrometer. Results Six metabolites (lactate, alanine, acetate, glutamine/glutamate, succinate and glucose) were analysed. In all study cohorts vaginal pH correlated with lactate integral (r = -0.62, p\0.0001). Lactate integrals were higher in the term ALR compared to the AHR (20–22 g.w.) women (p = 0.003). Acetate integrals were higher in the preterm versus term women for the AHR (20–22 g.w.) (p = 0.048) and SYM (p = 0.003) groups; and was predictive of PTB\37 g.w. (AUC 0.78; 95 % CI 0.61–0.95), and delivery within 2 weeks of the index assessment (AUC 0.84; 95 % CI 0.64–1) in the SYM women, whilst other metabolites were not. Conclusion High CVF acetate integral of women with symptoms of PTL appears predictive of preterm delivery, as well as delivery within 2 weeks of presentation

Comparative Study of Intravaginal Metronidazole and Triple-Sulfa Therapy for Bacterial Vaginosis

Objective: We sought to compare the efficacy of metronidazole gel vs. triple-sulfa cream in the treatment of bacterial vaginosis (BV)

The Structure of Spatial Localization

Material objects, such as tables and chairs, have an intimate relationship with space. They have to be somewhere. They must possess an address at which they are found. Under this aspect, they are in good company. Events, too, such as Caesar’s death and John’s buttering of the toast, and more elusive entities, such as the surface of the table, have an address, difficult as it may be to specify. A stronger notion presents itself, though. Some entities may not only be located at an address; they may also own (as it were) the place at which they are located, so as to exclude other entities from being located at the same address. Thus, for certain kinds of entities, no two tokens of the same kind can be located at the same place at the same time. This is typically the case with material objects. Likewise, no two particularized properties of the same level or degree of determinacy can be located at the same place at the same time (although particularized properties of different degree, such as the red of this table and the color of this table, can). Other entities seem to evade the restriction. Two events can be perfectly co-located without competing for their address. Or, to use a different terminology, events do not occupy the spatial region at which they are located, and can therefore share it with other events. The rotation of the Earth and the cooling down of the Earth take place at exactly the same regio

CaGrid Workflow Toolkit: A taverna based workflow tool for cancer grid

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