Corrected sidereal anisotropy for underground moons

Data from underground muon telescopes in New Mexico and Bolivia are analyzed in sidereal time and anti-sidereal time in the rigidity range 20 GV to a few 100's of GV. Using both vertical and north- and south- pointing telescopes in both hemispheres, a latitude range of 70 N to 50 S is covered. It is shown that there is an anti-sidereal variation of the P 1 over 2 type, having opposite phase in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and maximum amplitude at mid latitudes. The anti-sidereal data are used to correct the sidereal data, using the Nagashima method (Nagashima, 1984); the resulting corrected sidereal vectors for northern hemisphere telescopes have their sidereal maxima close to 3h sidereal time, in reasonable agreement with sidereal data at higher energies from small air showers. The Nagashima correction also eliminates effects due to the reversal of the Sun's polar magnetic field which show up in the uncorrected sidereal data

Cosmic ray intensity and the tilt of the neutral sheet

Recent publications have related long-term variations in cosmic ray intensity at the Earth with long term variations in the tilt of the neutral sheet in the inner heliosphere. The tilt of the neutral sheet from 1971 to 1974 is compared with the cosmic ray intensity at Earth, recorded by the Mt. Washington neutron monitor. The remarkable large decreases in cosmic ray intensity which occurred in 1973 and 1974 correlate well with excursions in the tilt of the neutral sheet which occurred earlier during these same two years

North-south asymmetry in activity on the Sun and cosmic ray density gradients

The marked N-S asymmetry in solar activity (with predominant activity in the Sun's Northern Hemisphere) during the 1960's could certainly account for a S-pointing cosmic ray gradient. It is also clear from the data that the response to this change in solar activity asymmetry, and the related change in the perpendicular cosmic ray density gradient, is different for cosmic ray telescopes in the Earth's Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Northern Hemisphere detectors see a S-pointing gradient in the 60's and a N-pointing gradient after 1971, while Southern Hemisphere telescopes see a S-pointing gradient both before and after the reversal

Is there an enhancement of muons at sea level from transient events?

In a recent study of a search for enhancements from the galactic center with muons at sea level using the TUPI muon telescope, we have found several ground level enhancements (GLEs) as very sharp peaks above the count rate background. This paper reports a consistent analysis of two GLEs observed in December 2003 and detected after an up-grade of the data acquisition system, which includes a noise filter and which allows us to verify that the GLEs are not mere background fluctuations. The main target of this study is a search for the origin of the GLEs. The results show that one of them has a strong correlation with a solar flare, while the other has an unknown origin, because there is neither a satellite report of a solar flare, nor prompt X-ray emission, and nor a excess of nuclei during the raster scan where the GLE was observed. Even so, two possibilities are analyzed: the solar flare hypothesis and the gamma ray burst (GRB) hypothesis. We show, by using the FLUKA Monte Carlo results for photo-production, that under certain conditions there is the possibility of an enhancement of muons at sea level from GeV GRBs.Comment: 27 pages, 11 ps figures, Accepted in Astrophysical Journa

North-South Distribution of Solar Flares during Cycle 23

In this paper, we investigate the spatial distribution of solar flares in the northern and southern hemisphere of the Sun that occurred during the period 1996 to 2003. This period of investigation includes the ascending phase, the maximum and part of descending phase of solar cycle 23. It is revealed that the flare activity during this cycle is low compared to previous solar cycle, indicating the violation of Gnevyshev-Ohl rule. The distribution of flares with respect to heliographic latitudes shows a significant asymmetry between northern and southern hemisphere which is maximum during the minimum phase of the solar cycle. The present study indicates that the activity dominates the northern hemisphere in general during the rising phase of the cycle (1997-2000). The dominance of northern hemisphere is shifted towards the southern hemisphere after the solar maximum in 2000 and remained there in the successive years. Although the annual variations in the asymmetry time series during cycle 23 are quite different from cycle 22, they are comparable to cycle 21.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, 1 table; Accepted for the publication in the proceedings of international solar workshop held at ARIES, Nainital, India on "Transient Phenomena on the Sun and Interplanetary Medium" in a special issue of "Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy (JAA)

Predicting the Amplitude of a Solar Cycle Using the North-South Asymmetry in the Previous Cycle: II. An Improved Prediction for Solar Cycle~24

Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874-2006, (Javaraiah, MNRAS, 377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of -1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112 + or - 13 and 74 + or -10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that in case of (1), the north-south asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years in advance, and we get 103 + or -10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north-south difference used in (3). By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get 87 + or - 7 for the amplitude of cycle 24.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, Published in Solar Physics 252, 419-439 (2008

Coexpression of epidermal growth factor receptor with related factors is associated with a poor prognosis in non-small-cell lung cancer

The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is commonly expressed in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and promotes a host of mechanisms involved in tumorigenesis. However, EGFR expression does not reliably predict prognosis or response to EGFR-targeted therapies. The data from two previous studies of a series of 181 consecutive surgically resected stage I-IIIA NSCLC patients who had survived in excess of 60 days were explored. Of these patients, tissue was available for evaluation of EGFR in 179 patients, carbonic anhydrase (CA) IX in 177 patients and matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) in 169 patients. We have previously reported an association between EGFR expression and MMP-9 expression. We have also reported that MMP-9 (P=0.001) and perinuclear (p)CA IX (P=0.03) but not EGFR expression were associated with a poor prognosis. Perinuclear CA IX expression was also associated with EGFR expression (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that coexpression of MMP-9 with EGFR conferred a worse prognosis than the expression of MMP-9 alone (P<0.001) and coexpression of EGFR and pCA IX conferred a worse prognosis than pCA IX alone (P=0.05). A model was then developed where the study population was divided into three groups: group 1 had expression of EGFR without coexpression of MMP-9 or pCA IX (number=21); group 2 had no expression of EGFR (number=75); and group 3 had coexpression of EGFR with pCA IX or MMP-9 or both (number=70). Group 3 had a worse prognosis than either groups 1 or 2 (P=0.0003 and 0.027, respectively) and group 1 had a better prognosis than group 2 (P=0.036). These data identify two cohorts of EGFR-positive patients with diametrically opposite prognoses. The group expressing either EGFR and or both MMP-9 and pCA IX may identify a group of patients with activated EGFR, which is of clinical relevance with the advent of EGFR-targeted therapies. © 2004 Cancer Research UK

Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia intervention for people with mild to moderate dementia and their family carers in the UK: the VALID research programme including RCT

BACKGROUND: People with dementia find it increasingly difficult to carry out daily activities (activities of daily living), and may require increasing support from family carers. Researchers in the Netherlands developed the Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia intervention, which was delivered in 10 1-hour sessions over 5 weeks to people with dementia and their family carers at home. Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia was found to be clinically effective and cost-effective. OBJECTIVES: Translate and adapt Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia to develop the Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia - the UK version intervention and training programme and to optimise its suitability for use within the UK. To estimate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia - the UK version for people with mild to moderate dementia and their family carers compared with treatment as usual. DESIGN: The development phase used mixed methods to develop Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia - the UK version: translation, expert review, and adaptation of the manual and training materials; training occupational therapists; focus groups and interviews, including occupational therapists, managers, people with dementia and family carers; consensus conference; and an online survey of occupational therapists to scope UK practice. A multicentre, two-arm, parallel-group, single-blind individually randomised pragmatic trial was preceded by an internal pilot. Pairs were randomly allocated between Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia - the UK version and treatment as usual. A cost–utility analysis, fidelity study and qualitative study were also completed. SETTING: Community services for people with dementia across England. PARTICIPANTS: People with mild to moderate dementia recruited in pairs with a family carer/supporter. INTERVENTIONS: Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia - the UK version is an activity-based, goal-setting approach for people with dementia and family carers, and is delivered at home by an occupational therapist for 10 hours over 10 weeks. Treatment as usual comprised the usual local service provision, which may or may not include standard occupational therapy. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: Data were collected through interviews conducted in person with dyads at baseline and at 12 and 26 weeks post randomisation, and then over the telephone with a reduced sample of just carers at 52 and 78 weeks post randomisation. The primary outcome was the Bristol Activities of Daily Living Scale at 26 weeks. The secondary outcomes were as follows: person with dementia – cognition, activities of daily living, quality of life and mood; carer – sense of competence, quality of life and mood; all participants – social contacts, leisure activities and serious adverse events. RESULTS: The Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia manual and training materials were translated and reviewed. In total, 44 occupational therapists were trained and delivered Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia to 130 pairs. A total of 197 occupational therapists completed the survey, of whom 138 also provided qualitative data. In total, 31 people attended the consensus conference. Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia - the UK version has more flexibility than Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia in terms of content and delivery; for example, occupational therapists can use the wider range of assessment tools that are already in regular use within UK practice and the time span for delivery is 10 weeks to better meet the needs of pairs and be more feasible for services to deliver. In total, 31 occupational therapists provided Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia - the UK version within the randomised controlled trial. A total of 468 pairs were randomised (249 pairs to Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia - the UK version, 219 pairs to treatment as usual). People with dementia ranged in age from 55 to 97 years (mean 78.6 years), and family carers ranged in age from 29 to 94 years (mean 69.1 years). The majority of those with dementia (74.8%) were married; 19.2% lived alone. Most family carers (72.6%) were spouses but 22.2% were adult children. At 26 weeks, 406 (87%) pairs remained in the trial, and the Bristol Activities of Daily Living Scale total score did not differ at the 5% level when comparing groups (adjusted mean difference estimate 0.35, 95% confidence interval –0.81 to 1.51; p = 0.55). The adjusted (for baseline Bristol Activities of Daily Living Scale total score and randomised group) intracluster correlation coefficient estimate at week 26 was 0.043. There were no significant differences in secondary outcomes. At 52 and 78 weeks, there were no differences between the two groups in Bristol Activities of Daily Living Scale total score and secondary outcomes. The probability that Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia - the UK version is cost-effective at a threshold of willingness to pay per quality-adjusted life-year of £20,000 is 0.02%. In the qualitative interviews, participants reported positive benefits and outcomes. Of the 249 pairs allocated to Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia - the UK version, 227 reached the goal-setting phase, and 838 of the 920 goals set (90.8%) were fully or partially achieved. LIMITATIONS: The development phase took longer than estimated because of translation time and organisational delays in delivering the intervention. Recruitment to the randomised controlled trial took longer than expected. Fidelity overall was moderate, with variation across sites and therapists. It is possible that Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia - the UK version did not work well in the UK service model in which usual care differs from that in the Netherlands. CONCLUSIONS: This programme used a rigorous process to develop Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia - the UK version but found no statistical evidence of clinical effectiveness or cost-effectiveness compared with usual care. Qualitative findings provided positive examples of how Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia - the UK version had enabled people to live well with dementia. FUTURE WORK: Developing tools to measure more meaningful outcomes, such as goals achieved or the quantity and quality of activity participation, with less reliance on proxy data, to collect the views and experiences of people with dementia themselves. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered as ISRCTN10748953 (WP3 and WP4). FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 11, No. 5. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

The invisible plan: how English teachers develop their expertise and the special place of adapting the skills of lesson planning

This paper analyses how English teachers learn to become expert designers of learning and why sharing that expertise is increasingly vital. Its conceptual framework is the widely recognised, empirically tested, five-stage developmental Dreyfus model of skill acquisition, exemplifying the development of teacher expertise, constituted by the “milestone” [m] and “transitory” [t] phases connecting with the five stages of: Novice [m], Advanced Beginner [t], Competent [m], Proficient [t] and Expert [m]. Teacher planning is analysed as one key tacit or non-tangible component of developing expertise. Focusing specifically on English teachers as key participants in this pioneer teacher cognition study, the defining characteristics of milestone stages of expertise development are explored with specific attention to the remarkably under-researched area of planning. We introduce three new categories, defining modes of planning: (i) visible practical planning, (ii) external reflective planning and (iii) internal reflective planning, demonstrating their role in teacher development through the Dreyfus five stages. English is a subject which suffers from frequent disruptive changes to curriculum and assessment: new learning designs are constantly demanded, making planning an ongoing challenge. The implications for practice include the importance of an explicit understanding of how teachers’ planning moves through the three phases from the very “visible” novice phase to the internal relatively “automatic” competent teacher and finally the seemingly “invisible” expert phase. Further research is needed to explore how English teachers can share planning expertise between the three phases to improve teachers’ skills and student learning