Methodology to Estimate Natural- and Vaccine-induced antibodies to Sars-Cov-2 in a Large Geographic Region

Accurate estimates of natural and/or vaccine-induced antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 are difficult to obtain. Although model-based estimates of seroprevalence have been proposed, they require inputting unknown parameters including viral reproduction number, longevity of immune response, and other dynamic factors. In contrast to a model-based approach, the current study presents a data-driven detailed statistical procedure for estimating total seroprevalence (defined as antibodies from natural infection or from full vaccination) in a region using prospectively collected serological data and state-level vaccination data. Specifically, we conducted a longitudinal statewide serological survey with 88,605 participants 5 years or older with 3 prospective blood draws beginning September 30, 2020. Along with state vaccination data, as of October 31, 2021, the estimated percentage of those 5 years or older with naturally occurring antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Texas is 35.0% (95% CI = (33.1%, 36.9%)). This is 3× higher than, state-confirmed COVID-19 cases (11.83%) for all ages. The percentage with naturally occurring or vaccine-induced antibodies (total seroprevalence) is 77.42%. This methodology is integral to pandemic preparedness as accurate estimates of seroprevalence can inform policy-making decisions relevant to SARS-CoV-2

Measurement of the Positive Muon Anomalous Magnetic Moment to 0.20 ppm

We present a new measurement of the positive muon magnetic anomaly, a_{μ}≡(g_{μ}-2)/2, from the Fermilab Muon g-2 Experiment using data collected in 2019 and 2020. We have analyzed more than 4 times the number of positrons from muon decay than in our previous result from 2018 data. The systematic error is reduced by more than a factor of 2 due to better running conditions, a more stable beam, and improved knowledge of the magnetic field weighted by the muon distribution, ω[over ˜]_{p}^{'}, and of the anomalous precession frequency corrected for beam dynamics effects, ω_{a}. From the ratio ω_{a}/ω[over ˜]_{p}^{'}, together with precisely determined external parameters, we determine a_{μ}=116 592 057(25)×10^{-11} (0.21 ppm). Combining this result with our previous result from the 2018 data, we obtain a_{μ}(FNAL)=116 592 055(24)×10^{-11} (0.20 ppm). The new experimental world average is a_{μ}(exp)=116 592 059(22)×10^{-11} (0.19 ppm), which represents a factor of 2 improvement in precision