Trade growth in a heterogeneous firm model: Evidence from South Eastern Europe

In 2007 a Free Trade Area (BFTA) will be created in the Balkans. In this paper we study the potential impact of BFTA on trade growth in the SEE. Given that welfare impacts associated with trade growth depend on the growth channels, more goods and varieties exported or at higher price or higher volume of goods and varieties are exported, in this paper we investigate the structure of integration-induced export growth in the Balkans. The empirical implementation of our analysis is complicated by the fact that firm-level trade data is not available for the SEE economies. In order to cope with this data paucity, we adopt a heterogeneous firm framework, which allows us to decompose the aggregate trade growth in two parts: the intensive margin of trade and the extensive margin of trade using only aggregate trade data. The empirical findings of our study suggest that the BFTA would primarily trigger trade growth through a growing number of exported goods (the extensive margin of trade).Thus, the actual welfare gains from trade growth in the Balkans might be larger than predicted by previous trade studies. We also found that a variable trade cost reduction would lead to higher export growth rates compared to a fixed trade cost reduction. These results allow us to draw detailed policy conclusions.Balkans, export growth, regional integration, trade costs

Labour Migration in the Enlarged EU: A New Economic Geography Approach

The paper studies the impact of migration policy liberalisation on international labour migration in the enlarged EU in a structural NEG approach. The liberalisation of migration policy would induce additional 1.80 - 2.98 percent of the total EU workforce to change their country of location, with most of migrant workers relocating from the East to the West. The average net migration rate is decreasing in the level of integration, suggesting that from the economic point of view no regulatory policy responses are necessary to labour migration in the enlarged EU.Labour Migration, Economic Integration, Economic Geography, Market Access.

Interdependencies in the Energy-Bioenergy-Food Price Systems: A Cointegration Analysis

The present paper examines a long-run relationship between the energy, bioenergy and food prices. In the recent years the bioenergy production has increased significantly around the world. The increase has been driven by rising energy prices as well as by environmental policies aiming at reducing the harmful effects of conventional sources of energy, such as climate change. Bioenergy, in turn, affects agricultural markets, because it uses agricultural commodities as inputs. The theoretical model we develop predicts that, because of price inelastic food demand, the agricultural price increase may be substantial. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical hypothesis that energy prices do affect prices of agricultural commodities. However, the co-integration is weaker than theoretically predicted. The price effect of bioenergy might be mitigated by new technological development, which improve yields and lead to an offsetting effect in the supply of agricultural commodities, and by fallow land brought into cultivation, when agricultural profitability is rising.Energy, bioenergy, crude oil, prices, cointegration.

European Integration and Labour Migration

The present paper studies how European integration might affect the migration of workers in the enlarged EU. Unlike the reduced-form migration models, we base our empirical analysis on the theory of economic geography à la Krugman (1991), which provides an alternative modelling of migration pull and push factors. Parameters of the theoretical model are estimated econometrically using historical migration data. Our empirical findings suggest that European integration would trigger selective migration between the countries in the enlarged EU. In the Baltics, Lithuania would gain about 7.25% of the total work force. In the Visegrád Four, the share of the mobile labour force would increase the most in Hungary, 8.35%, compared to the pre-integration state. Our predictions for the East-West migration are moderate and lower than those of reduced-form models: between 5.44% (from the Baltics) and 3.61% (from the Visegrád Four) would emigrate to the EU North. Because migrants not only follow market potential, but also shape the region’s market potential, the long-run agglomeration forces are sufficiently weak to make a swift emergence of a core-periphery pattern in the enlarged EU very unlikely.New economic geography; Market potential; Labour migration; Economic integration.

Education in the East, Emigrating to the West?

This paper examines the potential impacts of East-West migration of talents on the innovative capital and hence the long-run growth prospects in Eastern sending countries. Complementing previous studies, we examine the impact of high skill migration not only on the formation of human capital, but also consider migration's impact on knowledge capital in the sending countries. In line with previous studies we find that in the short- to medium-term high skill migration strictly reduces national innovative capital and hence increases the gap between East and West. However, these effects might be mitigated by factors such as reinforced education of workers, productive investment of remittances, return migration and increased knowledge transfer. Given that the emigration of highly skilled affects human capital differently than knowledge capital, addressing the adverse impacts of the most talented and highly skilled worker emigration efficiently, differentiated policies are required for human capital and knowledge capital.International labour migration, skilled workers, growth, human capital.

Factor Content of Agricultural Trade

Replaced with revised version of paper 08/25/09.Factor content, Heckscher-Ohlin, Factor abundance, Agricultural trade, International Relations/Trade, F12, F14, D23, Q12, Q17,

Labour Migration in the Enlarged EU: A New Economic Geography Approach

The present paper studies how European integration might affect the migration of workers in the enlarged EU. Unlike the reduced-form migration models, we base our empirical analysis on the theory of economic geography à la Krugman (1991), which provides an alternative modelling of migration pull and push factors. Parameters of the theoretical model are estimated econometrically using historical migration data. Our empirical findings suggest that European integration would trigger selective migration between the countries in the enlarged EU. In the Baltics, Lithuania would gain about 7.25% of the total work force. In the Visegrád, the share of mobile labour force would increase the most in Hungary, 8.35% compared to the pre-integration state. Our predictions for the East-West migration are moderate and lower than those of reduced-form models: between 5.44% (from the Baltics) and 3.61% (from the Visegrád) would emigrate to the EU North. Because migrants not only follow market potential, but also shape region's market potential, the long run agglomeration forces are sufficiently weak to make a swift emergence of a core-periphery pattern in the enlarged EU very unlike.JRC.DDG.J.3-Knowledge for Growt

Modelling the Flow of Knowledge and Human Capital: A Framework of Innovative Capital

Recently, the EU Council adopted a new labour migration policy instrument - the EU Blue Cards (BC) - for attracting the highly skilled workers to the EU. The present paper examines the potential impacts, which BC may cause on less developed sending countries (LDC). Our results suggest that the EU BC will reduce human capital in LDC. In addition, BC will also have a negative impact on knowledge capital. These findings suggest that without appropriate policy responses, BC makes developing country growth prospects rather bleak than blue. Therefore, we propose and analyse alternative migration policy instruments for LDC. We find that policies implemented on the demand side of the skilled labour market are the most efficient. In contrast, policies that address the supply side of the skilled labour market are the least efficient, though they might be less costly to implement.Knowledge capital, human capital, high-skill migration, innovative capital, economic growth.

The Impact of Food Price Shock on Heterogenous Credit Constrained Firms

This paper analyses how rising agricultural prices affect heterogenous farm production and access to inputs under credit market imperfections in the CEE transition countries. Using the FADN farm level panel data, which contains 37416 observations for 2004 and 2005, we estimate a farm credit constraint equation and find that small individual farms (IF) are more credit constrained that large corporate farms (CF). Using the estimated parameters we simulate the effect of rising input and output prices on production and input use of IF and CF farms. Our results suggest that in the presence of credit market imperfections, the relatively less credit constrained CF tend to benefit more from higher output prices than IF. Given that farms in transition and developing countries are more credit constrained than farms in developed market economies, raising food prices may actually reduce their profits and income compared to the latter. Hence, not only consumers but also agricultural producers in the developing world may loose from the increasing food prices.Credit constraint, food prices, firm level heterogeneity

Variety gains of trade integration in a heterogeneous firm model

The present paper studies the variety gains from trade integration. Applying a heterogenous firm model we simulate trade liberalisation in alternative integration scenarios, where per unit trade costs, fixed trade costs and both of them are reduced. The main innovation of our paper is that we estimate the structural parameters of the underlying heterogenous firm model econometrically based on a unique firm level panel data, which contains more than 250,000 observations for exporting firms. Our results suggest that the variety gains from trade integration are substantial. Reducing trade barriers by 15 percent induces variety growth, as a result of which the gains from trade integration are up to 17 percent higher than classical trade models would predict.Variety gains, extensive margin, structural estimation, trade integration, heterogenous firms.