4 research outputs found
A Multiresolution Stochastic Process Model for Predicting Basketball Possession Outcomes
Basketball games evolve continuously in space and time as players constantly
interact with their teammates, the opposing team, and the ball. However,
current analyses of basketball outcomes rely on discretized summaries of the
game that reduce such interactions to tallies of points, assists, and similar
events. In this paper, we propose a framework for using optical player tracking
data to estimate, in real time, the expected number of points obtained by the
end of a possession. This quantity, called \textit{expected possession value}
(EPV), derives from a stochastic process model for the evolution of a
basketball possession; we model this process at multiple levels of resolution,
differentiating between continuous, infinitesimal movements of players, and
discrete events such as shot attempts and turnovers. Transition kernels are
estimated using hierarchical spatiotemporal models that share information
across players while remaining computationally tractable on very large data
sets. In addition to estimating EPV, these models reveal novel insights on
players' decision-making tendencies as a function of their spatial strategy.Comment: 31 pages, 9 figure