An anti-establishment backlash that shook up the party system? The October 2015 Polish parliamentary election

The October 2015 Polish parliamentary election saw the stunning victory of the right-wing opposition Law and Justice party which became the first in post-communist Poland to secure an outright parliamentary majority, and equally comprehensive defeat of the incumbent centrist Civic Platform. In addition to the fact that the outgoing ruling party could no longer rely on invoking the ‘politics of fear’, the main factor accounting for this was widespread disillusionment with the country’s ruling elite. The election also saw the broad ‘post-transition’ socio-demographic and ideological divide and Law and Justice-Civic Platform duopoly continuing to dominate party competition. However, there were some indications of greater party system fluidity and question marks over who would emerge as the main representative of the anti-Law and Justice side of this divide

A method for determination of flow at the plane, horizontal interface separating streams of two different fluids

The paper deals with the theoretical investigation of the phenomenon, which consists in generation - by wind - of the movement of water, the bodies of air and of water being separated by a horizontal, plane interface, which is identical with the free surface of water. A set of assumptions defining a physical model of the phenomenon, borrowed from Lock (1951), is introduced, as well as the mathematical description of this model. It reduces to a composite ordinary differential problem, containing two non-linear equations of the third order, which have to satisfy some boundary conditions. A novel method of solution of the differential problem just mentioned is presented in the paper. In the method use is made of exact formulae for coefficients of series representing the solution. The method seems to be competitive with the one given in the paper by Lock (1951)

An approximate method for estimation of fluid motion in a lake containing islands

The physical phenomenon considered in the paper deals with flow in a lake, which contains one or several islands. The flow is generated by rivers, their inlets and outlets being distributed on the shoreline of the lake. The problem to be solved consists in determination of the velocity field - in the domain bounded by the shorelines of the lake and the islands. In fact, it is attempted to arrive solely at an estimation of the field. Consequently, a rather simple physical model of the phenomenon, as well as its simple mathematical description has been applied. In particular, plane, irrotational and steady flow of ideal liquid has been introduced, the inlets and outlets of the rivers being simulated by sources and sinks. Hence, the problem reduces to determination of a complex function, representing the complex velocity field, which satisfies the impermeability condition on all contours representing the shorelines, the field being generated by the singularities already mentioned. Unfortunately, the so formulated problem is "overconditioned" or "too stiff", what means that the impermeability condition on the outer contour cannot be satisfied. Nevertheless, we arrived at a simple method for circumventing this obstacle, the payoff consisting in some modification of this contour. We had this particular modification in mind, applying the word "approximate" in the title of the paper. The paper contains results - in the form of streamline patterns - for lakes containing from 1 to 3 islands. In the relevant figures the distances between the given and the modified exterior contours can be seen distinctly - allowing the reader to draw conclusions, whether the errors due to the modifications are admissible or not. Of course, it depends anyway on the point of view of the user of the results

CSES Module 4 Full Release

The module was administered as a post-election interview. The resulting data are provided along with voting, demographic, district and macro variables in a single dataset. CSES Variable Table The list of variables is being provided on the CSES Website to help in understanding what content is available from CSES, and to compare the content available in each module. Themes: MICRO-LEVEL DATA: Identification and study administration variables: weighting factors; election type; date of election 1st and 2nd round; study timing (post-election study, pre-election and post-election study, between rounds of majoritarian election); mode of interview; gender of interviewer; date questionnaire administered; primary electoral district of respondent; number of days the interview was conducted after the election; language of questionnaire. Demography: year and month of birth; gender; education; marital status; union membership; union membership of others in household; business association membership, farmers´ association membership; professional association membership; current employment status; main occupation; socio economic status; employment type - public or private; industrial sector; current employment status, occupation, socio economic status, employment type - public or private, and industrial sector of spouse; household income; number of persons in household; number of children in household under the age of 18; number of children in household under the age of 6; attendance at religious services; religiosity; religious denomination; language usually spoken at home; region of residence; race; ethnicity; rural or urban residence; primary electoral district; country of birth; year arrived in current country. Survey variables: perception of public expenditure on health, education, unemployment benefits, defense, old-age pensions, business and industry, police and law enforcement, welfare benefits; perception of improving individual standard of living, state of economy, government’s action on income inequality; respondent cast a ballot at the current and the previous election; vote choice (presidential, lower house and upper house elections) at the current and the previous election; respondent cast candidate preference vote at the current and the previous election; difference who is in power and who people vote for; sympathy scale for selected parties and political leaders; assessment of parties on the left-right-scale and/or an alternative scale; self-assessment on a left-right-scale and an optional scale; satisfaction with democracy; party identification; intensity of party identification, institutional and personal contact in the electoral campaigning, in person, by mail, phone, text message, email or social networks, institutional contact by whom; political information questions; expected development of household income in the next twelve month; ownership of residence, business or property or farm or livestock, stocks or bonds, savings; likelihood to find another job within the next twelve month; spouse likelihood to find another job within the next twelve month. DISTRICT-LEVEL DATA: number of seats contested in electoral district; number of candidates; number of party lists; percent vote of different parties; official voter turnout in electoral district. MACRO-LEVEL DATA: election outcomes by parties in current (lower house/upper house) legislative election; percent of seats in lower house received by parties in current lower house/upper house election; percent of seats in upper house received by parties in current lower house/upper house election; percent of votes received by presidential candidate of parties in current elections; electoral turnout; party of the president and the prime minister before and after the election; number of portfolios held by each party in cabinet, prior to and after the most recent election; size of the cabinet after the most recent election; number of parties participating in election; ideological families of parties; left-right position of parties assigned by experts and alternative dimensions; most salient factors in the election; fairness of the election; formal complaints against national level results; election irregularities reported; scheduled and held date of election; irregularities of election date; extent of election violence and post-election violence; geographic concentration of violence; post-election protest; electoral alliances permitted during the election campaign; existing electoral alliances; requirements for joint party lists; possibility of apparentement and types of apparentement agreements; multi-party endorsements on ballot; votes cast; voting procedure; voting rounds; party lists close, open, or flexible; transferable votes; cumulated votes if more than one can be cast; compulsory voting; party threshold; unit for the threshold; freedom house rating; democracy-autocracy polity IV rating; age of the current regime; regime: type of executive; number of months since last lower house and last presidential election; electoral formula for presidential elections; electoral formula in all electoral tiers (majoritarian, proportional or mixed); for lower and upper houses was coded: number of electoral segments; linked electoral segments; dependent formulae in mixed systems; subtypes of mixed electoral systems; district magnitude (number of members elected from each district); number of secondary and tertiary electoral districts; fused vote; size of the lower house; GDP growth (annual percent); GDP per capita; inflation, GDP Deflator (annual percent); Human development index; total population; total unemployment; TI corruption perception index; international migrant stock and net migration rate; general government final consumption expenditure; public spending on education; health expenditure; military expenditure; central government debt; Gini index; internet users per 100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants; fixed telephone lines per 100 inhabitants; daily newspapers; constitutional federal structure; number of legislative chambers; electoral results data available; effective number of electoral and parliamentary parties