Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model

China’s rapid growth over the past decade has been one of the main drivers of the rise in mineral commodity demand and prices. At a time when concerns about the sustainability of China’s growth model are increasingly rising, this paper assesses to what extent a hard landing in China would impact commodity exporters. After reviewing the main arguments pointing to a hard landing scenario – historical rebalancing precedents, overinvestment, unsustainable debt trends, and a growing real estate bubble – we focus on a sample of twenty-five countries, and use a global VAR methodology adapted to conditional forecasting to simulate the impact of a Chinese hard landing. We model metal and oil price separately to account for their different end-use patterns and consumption intensity in China, and we identify two specific transmission channels to commodity exporters: through exports (with both volume and price effects), and through investment (a fall in commodity prices reducing incentives to invest in the mining sector). According to our estimates, Latin American countries would be hardest hit – with a 6 percent cumulated growth loss after five years – followed by Asia (ex. China); advanced economies would be less affected. The "growth gap" between emerging and advanced economies would be considerably reduced, leading to partial recoupling

Les contributions privées au financement de la dépendance dans le cadre de l'obligation alimentaire : pratiques judiciaires et implications macroéconomiques.

L'objectif de cet article est d'analyser les transferts économiques liés à la mise en œuvre contentieuse de l'obligation alimentaire ascendante dans le financement de la dépendance des personnes âgées. Dans un premier temps, la mise en œuvre concrète de ce dispositif est étudiée à partir d'un échantillon de décisions rendues entre 2000 et 2003. La règle de mise à contribution estimée s'avère anti-redistributive à l'échelle inter-familiale mais redistributive à l'échelle intra-familiale. Dans un second temps, l'utilisation d'un échantillon représentatif des personnes âgées de 75 ans et plus et de leurs obligés alimentaires, simulé à l'aide du model DESTINIE, permet d'étudier les effets distributifs de la règle de mise à contribution mise à jour.This paper seeks to analyze economic transfers relating to the financing of long-term care for the elderly, as they arise from court decisions on the legal duty to financially support ascendants. The first section reviews the computation of the support obligation based on a sample of courtdecisions between2000 and 2003. The financial contribution ruleestimated from the decisions is found to be anti-redistributive in interfamily distribution terms but redistributive in intrafamily distribution terms. The second section uses the DESTINIE model to simulate a representative sample of persons aged 75 or older and those legally responsible for their financial support, and uses the sample to examine the distributive effects of the financial contribution rule.Long-term care; Obligation alimentaire; Microsimulation; Inégalités;

Les personnes dépendantes en France : Evolution et prise en charge

Using the microsimulation model Destinie, we project the number of elderly disabled people by 2040 in France. Transition probabilities between three different states of disability (non-dependent, moderately dependent, severely dependent) are estimated based on data from the HID survey, a two-wave panel. Results are very sensitive to our assumptions regarding the average duration of disability. In our central scenario, in which life expectancy with disability at age 60 remains stable, 1.2 million elderly people would suffer from disability in 2040, a 50% increase compared to 2000. The average age of the disabled elderly would increase markedly, from 78 to 82 years for men, and from 83 to 87.7 years for women. The share of severely dependent elderly people would remain stable, at 41% of the total number of disabled elderly. Microsimulation also allows for a longitudinal approach. We follow individuals from generations 1940 to 1954, from their 60th birthday to their death. Women are more affected by old-age disability than men: among the individuals living beyond age 60, 52% of women and 29% of men would experience at least one year in dependency. Because of the fall in fertility and the increasing number of divorces, the average number of potential caregivers (spouse and children) will tend to decrease over the next 40 years, from 2.8 to 2.3 for men and from 2.2 to 2.0 for women. The number of disabled people without spouse nor valid child would increase from 125,000 today to 165,000 in 2040. With unchanged legislation, the annual public expenditures related to Apa (Allocation personnalisée d’autonomie, the disability allowance targeted toward elderly people) would increase from 3.5 to 4 billion euros (in constant prices) in 2040. This moderate evolution is due to the assumption of a price-indexed schedule: the maximum value of the benefit would remain stable in constant prices, and the share of this maximum value actually paid to beneficiaries would decline over time. Indeed, this share depends on household resources; even though pensions are themselves price-indexed, their average level will increase significantly due to the renewal of cohorts of pensioners. Results are markedly different if we assume an indexation of Apa on wages. Such an assumption takes a better account of likely changes in costs of caregiving to disabled people: it would lead to an annual public cost of about 10.2 billion euros in 2040

Les personnes dépendantes en France : Evolution et prise en charge

Using the microsimulation model Destinie, we project the number of elderly disabled people by 2040 in France. Transition probabilities between three different states of disability (non-dependent, moderately dependent, severely dependent) are estimated based on data from the HID survey, a two-wave panel. Results are very sensitive to our assumptions regarding the average duration of disability. In our central scenario, in which life expectancy with disability at age 60 remains stable, 1.2 million elderly people would suffer from disability in 2040, a 50% increase compared to 2000. The average age of the disabled elderly would increase markedly, from 78 to 82 years for men, and from 83 to 87.7 years for women. The share of severely dependent elderly people would remain stable, at 41% of the total number of disabled elderly. Microsimulation also allows for a longitudinal approach. We follow individuals from generations 1940 to 1954, from their 60th birthday to their death. Women are more affected by old-age disability than men: among the individuals living beyond age 60, 52% of women and 29% of men would experience at least one year in dependency. Because of the fall in fertility and the increasing number of divorces, the average number of potential caregivers (spouse and children) will tend to decrease over the next 40 years, from 2.8 to 2.3 for men and from 2.2 to 2.0 for women. The number of disabled people without spouse nor valid child would increase from 125,000 today to 165,000 in 2040. With unchanged legislation, the annual public expenditures related to Apa (Allocation personnalisée d’autonomie, the disability allowance targeted toward elderly people) would increase from 3.5 to 4 billion euros (in constant prices) in 2040. This moderate evolution is due to the assumption of a price-indexed schedule: the maximum value of the benefit would remain stable in constant prices, and the share of this maximum value actually paid to beneficiaries would decline over time. Indeed, this share depends on household resources; even though pensions are themselves price-indexed, their average level will increase significantly due to the renewal of cohorts of pensioners. Results are markedly different if we assume an indexation of Apa on wages. Such an assumption takes a better account of likely changes in costs of caregiving to disabled people: it would lead to an annual public cost of about 10.2 billion euros in 2040

Germline variation at 8q24 and prostate cancer risk in men of European ancestry

Chromosome 8q24 is a susceptibility locus for multiple cancers, including prostate cancer. Here we combine genetic data across the 8q24 susceptibility region from 71,535 prostate cancer cases and 52,935 controls of European ancestry to define the overall contribution of germline variation at 8q24 to prostate cancer risk. We identify 12 independent risk signals for prostate cancer (p < 4.28 × 10−15), including three risk variants that have yet to be reported. From a polygenic risk score (PRS) model, derived to assess the cumulative effect of risk variants at 8q24, men in the top 1% of the PRS have a 4-fold (95%CI = 3.62–4.40) greater risk compared to the population average. These 12 variants account for ~25% of what can be currently explained of the familial risk of prostate cancer by known genetic risk factors. These findings highlight the overwhelming contribution of germline variation at 8q24 on prostate cancer risk which has implications for population risk stratification

Le rééquilibrage de la croissance chinoise : enjeux et perspectives

A gradual rebalancing of Chinese growth toward private consumption would promote global economic stability by helping to reduce global current-account imbalances. It would also serve Chinese interests. Demographic trends - the stabilization of the working-age population, the gradual decrease in internal migrations - should contribute to the rebalancing in the medium term, with labor shortages sustaining wages. However, structural reforms are needed as well. They include : improved redistribution of corporate earnings and gradual exchange-rate adjustment, to boost Chinese consumers’ purchasing power ; improvement in social policies, to lower precautionary savings ; and expansion and liberalization of financial markets to make them accessible to households and small / medium-sized businesses.Un rééquilibrage graduel de la croissance chinoise au profit de la consommation privée favoriserait la stabilité de l’économie mondiale, en contribuant à la résorption des déséquilibres mondiaux de balances courantes. Il servirait aussi les intérêts chinois. Les évolutions démographiques (stabilisation de la population active, tarissement progressif des migrations internes) contribueront à moyen terme à ce rééquilibrage, les pénuries de main-d’œuvre soutenant les salaires. Toutefois, des réformes structurelles sont aussi nécessaires : amélioration de la redistribution des profits des entreprises et ajustement progressif du taux de change, pour accroître le pouvoir d’achat du consommateur chinois ; amélioration des politiques sociales, pour faire baisser l’épargne de précaution ; développement et libéralisation des marchés financiers, pour en assurer l’accès aux ménages et aux PME.Delozier Benjamin, Rebillard Cyril. Le rééquilibrage de la croissance chinoise : enjeux et perspectives . In: Économie & prévision, n°194, 2010-3. pp. 119-127

Les contributions privées au financement de la dépendance dans le cadre de l'obligation alimentaire : pratiques judiciaires et implications distributives

This paper seeks to analyze economic transfers relating to the financing of long-term care for the elderly, as they arise from court decisions on the legal duty to financially support ascendants. The first section reviews the computation of the support obligation based on a sample of court decisions between 2000 and 2003. The financial contribution rule estimated from the decisions is found to be anti-redistributive in interfamily distribution terms but redistributive in intrafamily distribution terms. The second section uses the DESTINE model to simulate a representative sample of persons aged 75 or older and those legally responsible for their financial support, and uses the sample to examine the distributive effects of the financial contribution rule.L’objectif de cet article est d’analyser les transferts économiques liés à la mise en œuvre contentieuse de l’obligation alimentaire ascendante dans le financement de la dépendance des personnes âgées. Dans un premier temps, la mise en œuvre concrète de ce dispositif est étudiée à partir d’un échantillon de décisions rendues entre 2000 et 2003. La règle de mise à contribution estimée s’avère anti-redistributive à l’échelle inter-familiale mais redistributive à l’échelle intra-familiale. Dans un second temps, l’utilisation d’un échantillon représentatif des personnes âgées de 75 ans et plus et de leurs obligés alimentaires, simulé à l’aide du model DESTINIE, permet d’étudier les effets distributifs de la règle de mise à contribution mise à jour.Duée Michel, Rebillard Cyril, Wittwer Jérôme, Gramain Agnès. Les contributions privées au financement de la dépendance dans le cadre de l'obligation alimentaire : pratiques judiciaires et implications distributives. In: Économie & prévision, n°177, 2007-1. pp. 35-54