Financial Integration in Emerging Asia: Challenges and Prospects

Using both quantity- and price-based measures of financial integration, this paper shows an increasing degree of financial openness and integration in emerging Asian markets. This paper also assesses the impact of a regional shock relative to a global shock on local equity and bond markets. The findings of this paper suggest that the region’s equity markets are integrated more globally than regionally, although the degrees of both regional and global integration have increased significantly since the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. However, emerging Asia’s local currency bond markets remain generally segmented, being neither regionally nor globally integrated. A case can be made for the benefits of increased regional integration of financial markets. Financial integration at the regional level allows for the region’s economies to benefit from allocation efficiency and risk diversification. The findings of this paper suggest that policymakers in the region must strike the right balance between maximizing the net benefits from regional and global financial openness, and minimizing the potential costs of financial contagion and crisis.emerging Asia; financial integration; cross-border financial flows; crossborder asset holdings; convergence of asset returns

What Drives Different Types of Capital Flows and Their Volatilities in Developing Asia?

Understanding the determinants of capital inflows is essential to designing an effective policy framework to manage volatile capital flows and their disruptive potential. This paper aims to identify factors that explain the size and volatility of various types of capital flows to developing Asia with regard to other emerging market economies. The estimates for a panel dataset show that per capita income growth, trade openness, and change in stock market capitalization are important determinants of capital inflows to developing Asia. Trade openness increases the volatility of all types of capital inflows, while change in stock market capitalization, global liquidity growth, and institutional quality lowers the volatility. A regional factor plays an important role in determining the size and volatility of capital inflows in emerging Europe and merging Latin America, suggesting that regional economic cooperation and policy coordination may be an important element in designing a policy framework to manage capital inflows in merging economies.capital flows; volatility of capital flows; panel data; developing Asia; push and pull factors

Beyond the Crisis: Financial Regulatory Reform in Emerging Asia

The main objective of this paper is to suggest reform measures to address the gaps and weaknesses in emerging Asia's financial regulatory and supervisory systems, on the basis of lessons drawn from the global crisis. For emerging Asia, the direct impact of the global financial crisis has been limited, thus generating substantially less pressure for financial restructuring and regulatory reform than is the case in developed economies. However, the underlying causes of the current turmoil—such as the dynamics of financial innovation and globalization—remain relevant for the region. As the world embraces wide-ranging financial reforms, emerging Asia will face dramatic changes in the global financial landscape. The region's authorities need to be prepared for the changing regulatory environment and proactive in strengthening their national regulatory and supervisory frameworks, in line with higher regulatory standards emanating from global reforms. Financial regulators will also need to design an effective and coherent framework for cross-border crisis management, and work towards a potential international regulatory and surveillance system.Financial regulation; regulatory reform; asia; global financial crisis

Global Financial Regulatory Reforms:Implications for Developing Asia

The objective of global regulatory reform is to build a resilient global financial system that can withstand shocks and dampen, rather than amplify, their effects on the real economy. Lessons drawn from the recent crisis have led to specific reform proposals with concrete implementation plans at the international level. Yet, these proposals have raised concerns of relevance to Asia’s developing economies and hence require further attention at the regional level. We argue that global financial reform should allow for the enormous development challenges faced by developing countries—while ensuring that domestic financial regulatory systems keep abreast of global standards. This implies global reforms should be complemented and augmented by national and regional reforms, taking into account the very different characteristics of emerging economies’ financial systems from advanced economies. Key areas of development focus should be (i) balancing regulation and innovation, (ii) establishing national and cross-border crisis management and resolution mechanisms, (iii) preparing a comprehensive framework and contingency plan for financial institution failure, including consumer protection measures such as deposit insurance, (iv) supporting growth and development with particular attention to the region’s financial needs for infrastructure and for SMEs, and (v) reforming the international and regional financial architecture.financial regulatory reform; global financial architecture; G-20; Asia; national and regional reform

The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia: Impact and Policy Implications

Monitoring the behavior of potential output helps policymakers implement appropriate policies in response to an economic crisis. In the short-run, estimates of the output gap can guide the timing of the implementation and withdrawal of stimulus measures. In the medium- to long-term, these estimates can also provide the basis for gauging productive potential and, hence, guide policies to support sustainable, non-inflationary output growth. In this paper, we investigate the post-crisis behavior of potential output in emerging East Asian economies by employing the Markov-switching model to account for structural breaks. Results show that after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, potential output in Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea (Korea); Singapore; and Malaysia reverted to levels consistent with trends prior to the crisis. While there were permanent drops in potential output for both Thailand and Indonesia, growth rates returned to pre-crisis trends. The People’s Republic of China (PRC); Taipei,China; and the Philippines are special cases as explained in the report. Econometric estimates of a simple growth model show that the differences among the patterns of post-crisis recovery can be attributed to the investment-to-gross-domestic-product (GDP) ratio; macroeconomic policies; exchange rate behavior; and productivity, which is proxied by the level of technological activity. These results can be used to guide policy in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis.Potential output; Markov-switching model; structural break; global crisis; East Asia

Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling

In this paper, we investigate the degree of real economic interdependence between emerging Asia and major industrial countries to shed light on the heated debate over the “decoupling” of emerging Asia. We first document the evolution of macroeconomic interdependence for emerging Asian economies through changing trade and financial linkages at both the regional and global levels. Then, by employing a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model, we estimate the degree of real economic interdependence before and after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. Empirical findings show that real economic interdependence increased significantly in the post-crisis period, suggesting “recoupling”, rather than decoupling, in recent years. Output shocks from major industrial countries have a significant positive effect on emerging Asian economies. More interestingly, the reverse is also true. Output shocks from emerging Asia (and the People’s Republic of China [PRC]) have a significant positive effect on output in major industrial countries. The result suggests that macroeconomic interdependence between emerging Asia and industrial countries has become “bi-directional,” defying the traditional notion of the “North–South relationship” as one of “uni-directional" dependence.Regional integration; decoupling; macroeconomic interdependence; trade and financial market linkages; VAR

Impacts of COVID-19 on foreign direct investment

This study empirically examines how COVID-19 damages have impacted foreign direct investment (FDI) using quarterly data of bilateral FDI flows from 173 to 192 countries from the first quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2021. We measure the severity of COVID-19 damages using three indicators—the number of confirmed cases, the number of deaths, and the stringency index of government policies that restrict people’s activities. We differentiate FDI flows in terms of two different entry modes—greenfield FDI and cross-border mergers & acquisitions (M&A). FDI flows are measured in terms of the number of cases/deals and the US dollar values.We find heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 damages on FDI according to sectors and entry modes. In the manufacturing sector, COVID-19 damages in host countries have had significant negative impacts on both greenfield FDI and cross-border M&A, whereas those in home countries do not show any significant negative impacts on both types of FDI. In the service sector, on the other hand, COVID-19 damages in both the host and home countries are found to have negative impacts on greenfield FDI, whereas the impact of COVID-19 on cross-border M&A appears to be mostly insignificant