Observations and Interpretations of Energetic Neutral Hydrogen Atoms from the December 5, 2006 Solar Event

We discuss recently reported observations of energetic neutral hydrogen atoms (ENAs) from an X9 solar flare/coronal mass ejection event on 5 December 2006, located at E79. The observations were made by the Low Energy Telescopes (LETs) on STEREO A and B. Prior to the arrival of the main solar energetic particle (SEP) event at Earth, both LETs observed a sudden burst of 1.6 to 15 MeV energetic neutral hydrogen atoms produced by either flare or shock-accelerated protons. RHESSI measurements of the 2.2-MeV γ-ray line provide an estimate of the number of interacting flare-accelerated protons in this event, which leads to an improved estimate of ENA production by flare-accelerated protons. Taking into account ENA losses, we find that the observed ENAs must have been produced in the high corona at heliocentric distances ≥ 2 solar radii. Although there are no CME images from this event, it is shown that CME-shock-accelerated protons can, in principle, produce a time-history consistent with the observations

Correlation between energetic ion enhancements and heliospheric current sheet crossings in the outer heliosphere

Voyagers 1 and 2 observed highly-variable beams of energetic ions in the foreshock region upstream of the termination shock (TS). At Voyager 2 (V2), the ion intensities are generally not related to the plasma properties. At Voyager 1 (V1), the beams are often coincident with crossings of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). The V1 intensity peaks occur when the HCS is crossed from negative to positive magnetic polarities and V1 is within a few AU of the TS. Two mechanisms are considered: current sheet drift and streaming of ions from the TS along magnetic field lines which are parallel to the HCS. The current sheet drift hypothesis predicts that enhancements observed at V2 will occur when the HCS is crossed in the opposite direction, from positive to negative magnetic polarity, since V2 is at southern heliolatitudes

The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Nuclear Interaction Cross Sections for UltraHeavy Nuclei

We summarize additions to our data base of charge-changing cross sections for relativistic ultraheavy nuclei interacting in targets ranging from H to Pb. We have improved parametric fits to those cross sections as functions of energy and of projectile, target, and fragment charge. At high energies, we have determined cross sections for Au projectiles at 10.6 GeV /nucleon in targets of H, CH_2, C, Al, Cu, Sn, and Pb. Compared with cross sections at 1 GeV /n, fragment production is substantially changed, especially for the H target. These changes have important implications for calculations of interstellar propagation of ultraheavy nuclei. At lower energies, we have added Kr and Ag to our list of projectiles. Analysis of these data has led to a better understanding of the systematics of these cross sections, hence more physically meaningful parameterizations for fragmentation at high energies and for charge pickup

Galactic Abundances: Report of Working Group 3

We summarize the various methods and their limitations and strengths to derive galactic abundances from in-situ and remote-sensing measurements, both from ground-based observations and from instruments in space. Because galactic abundances evolve in time and space it is important to obtain information with a variety of different methods covering different regions from the Very Local Insterstellar Medium (VLISM) to the distant galaxy, and different times throughout the evolution of the galaxy. We discuss the study of the present-day VLISM with neutral gas, pickup ions, and Anomalous Cosmic Rays, the study of the local interstellar medium (ISM) at distances <1.5 kpc utilizing absorption line measurements in H I clouds, and the study of galactic cosmic rays, sampling contemporary (~15 Myr) sources in the local ISM within a few kiloparsec of the solar system. Solar system abundances, derived from solar abundances and meteorite studies are discussed in several other chapters of this volume. They provide samples of matter from the ISM from the time of solar system format ion, about 4.5 Gyr ago. The evolution of galactic abundances on longer time scales is discussed in the context of nuclear synthesis in the various contributing stellar objects

An AUC-based Permutation Variable Importance Measure for Random Forests

The random forest (RF) method is a commonly used tool for classification with high dimensional data as well as for ranking candidate predictors based on the so-called random forest variable importance measures (VIMs). However the classification performance of RF is known to be suboptimal in case of strongly unbalanced data, i.e. data where response class sizes differ considerably. Suggestions were made to obtain better classification performance based either on sampling procedures or on cost sensitivity analyses. However to our knowledge the performance of the VIMs has not yet been examined in the case of unbalanced response classes. In this paper we explore the performance of the permutation VIM for unbalanced data settings and introduce an alternative permutation VIM based on the area under the curve (AUC) that is expected to be more robust towards class imbalance. We investigated the performance of the standard permutation VIM and of our novel AUC-based permutation VIM for different class imbalance levels using simulated data and real data. The results suggest that the standard permutation VIM loses its ability to discriminate between associated predictors and predictors not associated with the response for increasing class imbalance. It is outperformed by our new AUC-based permutation VIM for unbalanced data settings, while the performance of both VIMs is very similar in the case of balanced classes. The new AUC-based VIM is implemented in the R package party for the unbiased RF variant based on conditional inference trees. The codes implementing our study are available from the companion website: http://www.ibe.med.uni-muenchen.de/organisation/mitarbeiter/070_drittmittel/janitza/index.html

Non-Maxwellian Proton Velocity Distributions in Nonradiative Shocks

The Balmer line profiles of nonradiative supernova remnant shocks provide the means to measure the post-shock proton velocity distribution. While most analyses assume a Maxwellian velocity distribution, this is unlikely to be correct. In particular, neutral atoms that pass through the shock and become ionized downstream form a nonthermal distribution similar to that of pickup ions in the solar wind. We predict the H alpha line profiles from the combination of pickup protons and the ordinary shocked protons, and we consider the extent to which this distribution could affect the shock parameters derived from H alpha profiles. The Maxwellian assumption could lead to an underestimate of shock speed by up to about 15%. The isotropization of the pickup ion population generates wave energy, and we find that for the most favorable parameters this energy could significantly heat the thermal particles. Sufficiently accurate profiles could constrain the strength and direction of the magnetic field in the shocked plasma, and we discuss the distortions from a Gaussian profile to be expected in Tycho's supernova remnant.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure

Modelling colloids with Baxter's adhesive hard sphere model

The structure of the Baxter adhesive hard sphere fluid is examined using computer simulation. The radial distribution function (which exhibits unusual discontinuities due to the particle adhesion) and static structure factor are calculated with high accuracy over a range of conditions and compared with the predictions of Percus--Yevick theory. We comment on rigidity in percolating clusters and discuss the role of the model in the context of experiments on colloidal systems with short-range attractive forces.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures. (For proceedings of "Structural arrest in colloidal systems with short-range attractive forces", Messina, December 2003