A STUDY ON ECONOMIC DAMAGE FOR TOURISM IN KYOTO CITY BY EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

As a typical historic and touristic city of Japan, Kyoto City with a total of 14 UNESCO world heritage sites, and more than 2,000 shrines and temples, attracts annually about 50 million tourists from Japan and overseas. However, because of the disaster of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in 1995 and the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 which both gave serious damage to Japan, the tourism sector of Kyoto City was impacted by the obvious decrease in the number of tourists. In this study focusing on the two disaster cases of Kyoto City, we estimated the amount of economic damage to the tourism sector, which consists of direct damage from decreasing tourism activities and indirect damage from influences on the regional economy caused by decreases in tourism consumption, which was estimated by the input-output analysis. Then from the analysis of decreasing tourists and estimation of the results, we considered factors whichhave impacted tourism activities and the regional economy

Evaluation of COVID-19 Related Measures using Ordered Logistic Regression Analysis based on a Survey of Tourism-Related Offices in the Nishimikawa Region, Aichi Prefectur

COVID-19 has had an unprecedented impact on the tourism industry. The Go To Travel (overnight travel discount and regional common coupons campaign), which was implemented in Japan from July 2020 to stimulate demand in the tourim industry, was canceled at the end of 2020 because of the spread of infection again. Repeated outbreaks of infection and state of emergencies highlight the difficultly in balancing human health and economic activities during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to clarify the economic impacts of the pandemic and evaluate the implementation of related economic support measures on the tourism industry. Based on a questionnaire survey of tourism-related offices in the Nishimikawa Region of Aichi Prefecture, it examines the economic impacts on the sales amount of tourism-related industry, evaluated the effects of the Subsidy Program for Sustaining Businesses (SPSB) and Go To Travel (by the national government) and Coupon Campaigns for shopping and restaurants (by municipalities) using ordered logistic regression analysis. The findings show that the impact of COVID-19 on business office sales is most severe for the accommodation industry, with a 62% decrease at the time of the survey compared to 2019. In addition, SPSB and Go To Travel campaigns are relatively highly evaluated by accommodation and tourism servise offices, while Coupon Campaigns for shopping and restaurant coupon campaigns are relatively more effective in the restaurant and retail offices. In additon, the results show that the larger the offices annual sales, the more effective the Coupon Campaigns, indicating that since consumers use premium coupons to purchase goods and services that are more expensive than usual, the effect of policy implementation would be biased toward business offices that provide relatively expensive goods and service

Metrical Analyses on Population and Economic Growth and Urban ‘Quality Of Life’ of Metropolitan Cities in China during the 00s

In the first decade of the 21st century, along with rapid economic growth, China also experienced rapid urbanization, more specifically, the concentration of large populations from rural areas into urban areas. In 2005, the Chinese Government, in its Eleventh Five-Year Plan, had an attitude of promoting the sound development of urbanization, while also promoting cooperative development in regions. However, there has emerging some mass media reports on the shadow side of the rapid growth and the rapid concentration such as environmental problems e.g. pollution affairs since early of the 2010’s. These are the same as Japan had already suffered from the 1960's to 70's, so it suggests that the new era has come when Chinese inquire their 'Quality Of Life (QOL)'. This paper analyses 51 metropolitan cities (prefecture-level cities with over one million population in 2000). Firstly, mainly based on Population Census Reports data in 2000 and 2010, we examine the economic growth and the urban in-flow migration, and the relationship between these two kinds of the indicators in detail. We show a classification of 51 cities through cluster analysis and their geographical distributions, and then we summarize the dynamics of all over China economy and population during this decade. Based on published statistical data in 2005 and 2010 such as China City Statistical Yearbooks, we propose an indicator-system on China urban QOL of the 51 metropolitan cities. This QOL system is consisted of five groups of indicators (Education/ Daily-Life Convenience/ Urban-Life Enivironment/ Consumer-Side Sustainability/ Indstry-Side Sustainability) of 23 elemental indicators. At one time-point, QOL value is defined as an average of the group indicators, each of which is an average of each standard scores of the elemental indicators. On the other hand, ‘Change of QOL’ value is defined as an average of each standard scores of the change ratios of the elemental indicators. Using these kinds of QOL indicators, we also show a classification of the metropolitan cities through cluster analysis and their geographical distributions in China. Furthermore, we analyse correlations between the five group indicators of the QOL system and the economic level and its growth through MRA. As the results, there can be observed the negative values of correlation between GRP per capita and Consumer-Side Sustainability and so on statistical significantly

A STUDY ON EVACUATION SIMULATION FOR GUIDING TOURISTS IN HIMEJI CASTLE BASED ON A SURVEY OF TOURISTS’ INTENTIONS IN EVACUATION AFTER EARTHQUAKE

Many tourists tend to visit historic areas. Nevertheless, their knowledge about these areas, disaster prevention, and evacuation is not sufficient. Japan has met with several large-scale disasters, namely the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in 1995, and will potentially face the Nankai Trough Quake in the future. This paper, based on a survey of tourists’ intentions in evacuation after an earthquake in Himeji castle, shows an evacuation simulation and the measures for supporting tourists’ evacuation. Himeji Castle, the area investigated by this study, is one of the world heritage sites in Japan. First, this study revealed decision-making rules and used these to categorize tourists. This paper investigated the sources of information that tourists consider before starting evacuation. According to the results of the questionnaire survey, four groups were categorized by analytic hierarchy process and cluster analysis. As a result, many tourists set a high value on information from sign boards and staff of the Himeji castle before starting evacuation. Next, in a similar manner, using analytic hierarchy process, this survey found that many tourists consider information from signboard and staff when choosing evacuation routes, and the respondents were categorized into four groups using cluster analysis. Second, this study developed an evacuation simulation taking into account the tourists’ intentions about evacuation. This study used SOARS, Spot Oriented Agent Role Simulator, as a simulation platform and adopted a Spot-Link type model. Third, this study simulated six cases that have different evacuee flows near “Bizen-gate” and routes in sightseeing, and evaluated them by transition of the number of evacuees who were able to reach an evacuation area and the number of evacuees who could not move because of bottlenecks. As a result, we found two effective measures for guiding tourists

Optimal Inflow Performance Relationship Equation for Horizontal and Deviated Wells in Low-Permeability Reservoirs

After Vogel proposed a dimensionless inflow performance equation, with the rise of the horizontal well production mode, a large number of inflow performance relationship (IPR) equations have emerged. In the productivity analysis of deviated and horizontal wells, the IPR equation proposed by Cheng is mainly used. However, it is still unclear whether these inflow performance models (such as the Cheng, Klins-Majcher, Bendakhlia-Aziz, and Wiggins-Russell-Jennings types) are suitable for productivity evaluations of horizontal and deviated wells in low-permeability reservoirs. In-depth comparisons and analyses have not been carried out, which hinders improvements in the accuracy of the productivity evaluations of horizontal wells in low-permeability reservoirs. In this study, exploratory work was conducted in two areas. First, the linear flow function relationship used in previous studies was improved. Based on the experimental pressure-volume-temperature results, a power exponential flow function model was established according to different intervals greater or less than the bubble point pressure, which was introduced into the subsequent derivation of the inflow performance equation. Second, given the particularity of low-permeability reservoir percolation, considering that the reservoir is a deformation medium, and because of the existence of a threshold pressure gradient in fluid flow, the relationship between permeability and pressure was changed. The starting pressure gradient was introduced into the subsequent establishment of the inflow performance equation. Based on the above two aspects of this work, the dimensionless IPR of single-phase and oil-gas two-phase horizontal wells in a deformed medium reservoir was established by using the equivalent seepage resistance method and complex potential superposition principle. Furthermore, through regression and error analyses of the standard inflow performance data, the correlation coefficients and error distributions of six types of IPR equations applicable to deviated and horizontal wells at different inclination angles were compared. The results show that the IPR equation established in this study features good stability and accuracy and that it can fully reflect the particularity of low-permeability reservoir seepage. It provides the best choice of the IPR between inclined wells and horizontal wells in low-permeability reservoirs. The other types of IPR equations are the Wiggins-Russell-Jennings, Klins-Majcher, Vogel, Fetkovich, Bendakhlia-Aziz, and Harrison equations, listed here in order from good to poor in accuracy

Risk factors for peritoneal dialysis–associated peritonitis

The purpose of this study was to summarize the pathogens that cause peritoneal dialysis (PD)-associated peritonitis and to identify risk factors for PD-associated peritonitis. This retrospective study included 115 end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients receiving PD therapy. Patients were categorized into two groups: peritonitis group (n = 41) and non-peritonitis group (n = 74). Clinical data and laboratory tests were collected from medical records. The multivariate logistic regression model was used to evaluate associations between PD-associated peritonitis and potential risk factors. PD-associated peritonitis occurred 54 times in 41 patients. The most frequently identified pathogen was Gram-positive cocci (57.78%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that serum albumin (β = –0.208, P  < 0.001), blood phosphorus concentration (β = –1.732, P  = 0.001), gastrointestinal disorders (β = 1.624, P  = 0.043), and use of calcitriol (β = –2.239, P  = 0.048) were significantly correlated with PD-associated peritonitis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed that the areas under the curve were 0.832 for serum albumin and 0.700 for blood phosphorus concentration with optimal cut-off values of 29.1 g/L for serum albumin and 1.795 mmol/L for blood phosphorus concentration. Gram-positive coccus is the major pathogen responsible for PD-associated peritonitis. Serum albumin <29.1 g/L, blood phosphorus concentration <1.795 mmol/L, and intestinal disorders are risk factors for PD-associated peritonitis, whereas the use of calcitriol can reduce the risk of PD-associated peritonitis