Valuation accuracy: reconciling the timing of the valuation and sale

Carsberg (2002) suggested that the periodic valuation accuracy studies undertaken by, amongst others, IPD/Drivers Jonas (2003) should be undertaken every year and be sponsored by the RICS, which acts as the self-regulating body for valuations in the UK. This paper does not address the wider issues concerning the nature of properties which are sold and whether the sale prices are influenced by prior valuations, but considers solely the technical issues concerning the timing of the valuation and sales data. This study uses valuations and sales data from the Investment Property Databank UK Monthly Index to attempt to identify the date that sale data is divulged to valuers. This information will inform accuracy studies that use a cut-off date as to the closeness of valuations to sales completion date as a yardstick for excluding data from the analysis. It will also, assuming valuers are informed quickly of any agreed sales, help to determine the actual sale agreed date rather than the completion date, which includes a period of due diligence between when the sale is agreed and its completion. Valuations should be updated to this date, rather than the formal completion date, if a reliable measure of valuation accuracy is to be determined. An accuracy study is then undertaken using a variety of updating periods and the differences between the results are examined. The paper concludes that the sale only becomes known to valuers in the month prior to the sale taking place and that this assumes either that sales due diligence procedures are shortening or valuers are not told quickly of agreed sale prices. Studies that adopt a four-month cut-off date for any valuations compared to sales completion dates are over cautious, and this could be reduced to two months without compromising the data

Tenant mix variety in regional shopping centres: some UK empirical analyses

The variety and quality of the tenant mix within a shopping centre is a key concern in shopping centre management. Tenant mix determines the extent of externalities between outlets in the centre, helps establish the image of the centre and, as a result, determines the attractiveness of the centre for consumers. This then translates into sales and rents. However, the management of tenant mix has largely been based on perceived “optimum” arrangements and industry rules of thumb. This paper attempts to model the impact of tenant mix on the rent paid by retailers in larger UK shopping centres and, hence, the returns made by shopping centre landlords. It extends work on shopping centre rent determination (see Working Paper 10/03) utilising a database of 148 regional shopping centres in the UK, with detailed data for over 1900 tenants. Econometric models test the relationship between rental levels and the levels of retail concentration and diversity, while controlling for a range of continuous and qualitative characteristics of each tenant, each retail product, and each shopping centre. Factor analysis is then used to extract the core retail and service categories from the tenant lists of the 148 shopping centres. The factor scores from these core retailer factors are then tested against rent payable. The results from the empirical analysis allow us to generate some clear analytical and empirical implications for optimal retail management

The management of positive inter-store externalities in shopping centres: some empirical evidence

In enclosed shopping centres, stores benefit from the positive externalities of other stores in the centre. Some stores provide greater benefits to their neighbours than others – for example anchor tenants and brand leading stores. In managing shopping centres, these positive externalities might be captured through rental variations. This paper explores the determinants of rent – including externalities – for UK regional shopping centres. Two linked databases were utilised in the research. One contains characteristics of 148 shopping centres; the other has some 1,930 individual tenant records including rent level. These data were analysed to provide information on the characteristics of centres and retailers that help determine rent. Factors influencing tenant rents include market potential factors derived from urban and regional economic theory and shopping centre characteristics identified in prior retail research. The model also includes variables that proxy for the interaction between tenants and the impact of positive in-centre externalities. We find that store size is significantly and negatively related to tenant with both anchor and other larger tenants, perhaps as a result of the positive effects generated by their presence, paying relatively lower rents while smaller stores, benefiting from the generation of demand, pay relatively higher rents. Brand leader tenants pay lower rents than other tenants within individual retail categories

A theory-based approach to understanding condom errors and problems reported by men attending an STI clinic

The official published version can be accessed from the link below - Copyright @ 2008 Springer VerlagWe employed the information–motivation–behavioral skills (IMB) model to guide an investigation of correlates for correct condom use among 278 adult (18–35 years old) male clients attending a sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinic. An anonymous questionnaire aided by a CD-recording of the questions was administered. Linear Structural Relations Program was used to conduct path analyses of the hypothesized IMB model. Parameter estimates showed that while information did not directly affect behavioral skills, it did have a direct (negative) effect on condom use errors. Motivation had a significant direct (positive) effect on behavioral skills and a significant indirect (positive) effect on condom use errors through behavioral skills. Behavioral skills had a direct (negative) effect on condom use errors. Among men attending a public STI clinic, these findings suggest brief, clinic-based, safer sex programs for men who have sex with women should incorporate activities to convey correct condom use information, instill motivation to use condoms correctly, and directly enhance men’s behavioral skills for correct use of condoms

The Effects of Offering Hay, Pit-Stored Grass Silage or Big-Bale Silage to Pregnant Ewes on Ewe and Lamb Performance

Hay and pit silage have been used extensively for feeding sheep over the winter period, but in recent years, especially on smaller farms, big-bale silage has become increasingly popular. However, there is limited comparative information on the use of big-bale silage for sheep, especially in relation to the effects of chopping and growth stage at harvest. This study compared the performance of ewes offered hay, pit silage, or big-bale grass silage made from either chopped or unchopped grass and cut from the same field at the same time