Assessing the time intervals between economic recessions

Economic recessions occur with varying duration and intensity and may entail substantial losses in terms of GDP, employment, household income, and investment spending. In this work, we propose a statistical model for the time intervals between recessions that accounts for the state of the economy and the impact of market adjustments and regulatory changes. The model uses a generalized renewal process based on the Gumbel distribution (GuGRP) in which times between consecutive events are conditionally independent. We also present a novel goodness of fit test tailored to the GuGRP that validates the use of the statistical model for the analysis of recessions. Analyzing recessions in the U.S. and Europe, we demonstrate that the statistical model characterizes well recession inter-arrival times and that the model performs better than simpler, commonly used distributions. In addition, the presented statistical model enables us to compare the adjustment processes in different economies and to forecast the occurrence of future recessions

Heterogeneity of pneumococcal phase variants in invasive human infections

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae can be carried asymptomatically in the nasopharynx of its human host but can also cause a wide range of infections. A role for pneumococcal phase variants in the different lifestyles of this bacterium has been suggested but no systematic survey of the colony phenotypes of isolates associated with human infections has been undertaken. RESULTS: We report the colony opacity phenotypes of a genetically diverse set of 304 invasive isolates representing 10 serotypes. Over half of the isolates (52%) presented the opaque phenotype whereas transparent variants accounted for only 26% of the total. However, the frequency of recovery of each phase variant was not uniform, while serotypes 1, 4, 12B and 23F presented the opaque phenotype more frequently than expected by chance, serotypes 3 and 14 where less frequently associated with this phenotype. CONCLUSION: The opaque phenotype was the most frequent phenotype found among invasive isolates. An unexpected and equally important finding is the variability of the dominant opacity phenotype found among serotypes. This observation highlights the heterogeneity of opacity phenotypes in invasive isolates and lends further support to the proposal that other factors, in addition to the site of isolation, determine the opacity phenotype of a given isolate. The association between serotype and colonial opacity could help explain epidemiological differences observed among pneumococcal serotypes such as a higher invasive disease potential

The urban heat island of the Metropolitan City of Turin. Strategies for a sustainable urban planning

Globally, the world population living in cities is increasing and then the sustainability and liveability of urban spaces are rising the attention of the scientific community mainly in term of warming increase and health risk. In this work, the microclimate of outdoor spaces is investigated considering the different outdoor air temperatures registered by various weather stations in the city of Turin (Italy) and its surroundings with 12 municipalities. The air temperature variations are correlated with the built urban morphology, the solar exposure of urban spaces, the albedo coefficients of outdoor surfaces and other variables as the percentage of vegetation and water, the distance from the town centre and the Land Surface Temperature. With a multiple linear regression analysis the air temperatures have been correlated with the urban variables to obtain a simple model for the prediction of the average monthly air temperature in the Metropolitan City of Turin. This model can be used to understand the different microclimates within Turin and between the urban and the rural areas, and to evaluate the most influential variables on the air temperature variations. The resulted models could help urban planners to predict the microclimate in new districts, but also in the existent ones, as a function of the urban form and of the outdoor materials chosen to mitigate the UHI phenomenon

Impact of active efflux in the development of MDR phenotypes in Staphylococcus aureus

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Posibilidades lignitíferas de la cuenca Neógena de Ademuz (Fosa de Teruel)

La cuenca Terciaria de Ademuz es una cuenca intramontañosa-finialpídica colmatada por sedimentos del Mioceno-Plioceno. Se han distinguido cinco unidades litoestratigráficas en los sedimentos terciarios, de las cuales la Unidad Blanca Inferior presenta cierto interés en cuanto a posibilidades lignitíferas. Corresponde esta Unidad a un ambiente lacustre, en el que se depositan dos tipos de facies: Una travertínica, indicadora de un medio palustre muy somero, con abundante vegetación y condiciones oxidantes, y otra de ambiente tipo charca, que corresponde a un medio con lámina de agua escasa, pero mayor que en el caso anterior, con aguas tranquilas y condiciones reductoras, que son las idóneas para la acumulación de restos vegetales y formación de carbón. Las facies de último tipo predominan en dos zonas telmáticas, situadas al abrigo de islas interiores o en zonas marginales, en ambos casos protegidas de los aportes terrígenos, pero fuera de la zona de deposición de sedimentos exclusivamente lacustres, que se corresponden con las zonas de mayor cantidad de indicios de lignito

Mineral resources of the Tertiary deposits of Spain

Spain is the most self-sufficient country for minerals in the EsU. A major proportion of these Spanish mineral resources has been oblained from Tertiary material-. The main material exploited in Tertiary basins have been: brown coal and lignites, potassium salts, sodium salts (sulphates and chlorides), diátomite, sepiolite and other absorbent days, bentonites, celestine. pumíce and also dimension (building) stones and ceramícs, portland cement and plaster raw materials. Pb-Zn-Ag and gold alunite volcanogenic ores, related to Neogene volcanism, besides Au-placers have been mined from Roman times, Minor Cu and Mn occurrences are also reviewed. The brown coal mines of Galician basins have provided all the sígnificant productíon of Spain: more than 17 Mt. Low-quaility Oligocene lignites in the eastern part of the Ebro Basin and Balearic Islands are less important from tbe economic point of view. Other occurrences are in the Guinzo de Limia. Guadix Baza. Granada (Arenas del Rey) and Alcoy basins. The Spanish Tertiary basins (continental and marine, (Oligocene-Miocene) are filled by thick evaporites in which are obtained potassium salts and sodium salts (sulphates and chlorides). The Montevives celestine mine is located in the evaporitic unit of the Granada basin (Miocene), and provides all of the Spanish celestine production. Spain is the world's third largest producer of celestine. The Madríd basin and the minor Calatayud basín supply the whole of Spanish sepiolitic production. The most important Spanish attapulgite production is obtained from the El Cuervo mine (Sevilla and Cádiz provinces). The genesis of the Cabo de Gata bentonite deposits is thought to be by hydrothermal alteration and halmyrolsis of Neogene volcanic roch. The Madrid basin bentonites and 'pink days' have been interpreted as an early diagenetic. even edaphic Mg-rich, attapulgitization of illite clays. The most important areas of ceramic c1ay production in Spain are localed in the Guadalquivir basin (Bailen area) and the Madrid basin, (La Sagra Alcalá de Henares). The continental Neogene basin ofthe Hellin area supplies 90 % of Spanish diamote production

Performance analysis of U19 male and female setters in the Brazilian volleyball champion teams

This study was made possible thanks to the contribution of the [Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq) ] , and [Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (Fapemig) ] .The present study aims to analyse the associations between setting variables and gender (male and female). The study sample consisted of 711 setting actions made by the setters/starters of the champion teams from the Brazilian states of Minas Gerais (MG) and São Paulo (SP); 313 setting actions were observed for the male category and 398 for the female category. Statistical analysis showed that there were gender differences in the following variables: conditions of the setting, number of attackers available for the attack, set tempo, conditions after setting and the set’s area. This information is likely to be relevant for the training process of setting, for both males and females.Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPQ)Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG

Hybrid manufacturing of stiffening grooves in additive deposited thin parts

This paper is focused on the hybridization of additive manufacturing with single-point incremental forming to produce stiffening grooves in thin metal parts. An analytical model built upon in-plane stretching of a membrane is provided to determine the tool force as a function of the required groove depth and to estimate the maximum allowable groove depth that can be formed without tearing. The results for additively deposited stainless-steel sheets show that the proposed analytical model can replicate incremental plastic deformation of the stiffening grooves in good agreement with experimental observations and measurements. Anisotropy and lower formability caused by the dendritic-based microstructure of the additively deposited stainless-steel sheets justifies the reason why the maximum allowable depth of the stiffening grooves is approximately 27% smaller than that obtained for the wrought commercial sheets of the same material that are used for comparison purposes.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Invasive infections due to Streptococcus pyogenes: seasonal variation of severity and clinical characteristics, Iceland, 1975 to 2012.

To access publisher's full text version of this article click on the hyperlink at the bottom of the pageEpidemiology and clinical characteristics of invasive Group A streptococcal infections (IGASI) are highly variable. Long-term studies are needed to understand the interplay between epidemiology and virulence. In a population-based study of IGASI in Iceland from 1975 to 2012, 288 cases were identified by positive cultures from normally sterile body sites. Charts were reviewed retrospectively and emm-types of viable Streptococcus pyogenes isolates (n=226) determined. Comparing the first and last decade of the study period, IGASI incidence increased from 1.09 to 3.96 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year. The most common were emm types 1 (25%), 28 (11%) and 89 (11%); emm1 strains were most likely to cause severe infections. Infections in adults were significantly more likely to be severe during the seasonal peak from January to April (risk ratio: 2.36, 95% confidence interval: 1.34–4.15). Significant seasonal variability in severity was noted among patients with diagnosis of sepsis, respiratory infection and cellulitis, with 38% of severe infections in January to April compared with 16% in other months (p<0.01). A seasonal increase in severity of IGASI suggested that generalised seasonal increase in host susceptibility, rather than introduction of more virulent strains may play a role in the pathogenesis of these potentially fatal infections.Icelandic Center for Research, Rannis/100436021 Landspitali University Hospital Science Fun

Estudo Viriato: Actualização de dados de susceptibilidade aos antimicrobianos de bactérias responsáveis por infecções respiratórias adquiridas na comunidade em Portugal em 2003 e 2004

O Estudo Viriato é um estudo nacional, prospectivo e multicêntrico, de vigilância da susceptibilidade aos antimicrobianos de bactérias frequentemente responsáveis por infecções do aparelho respiratório adquiridas na comunidade.Nos anos de 2003 e 2004 participaram 29 laboratórios de todo o país. Isolaram-se 2945 microrganismos que foram estudados num laboratório coordenador. Das 513 estirpes de Streptococcus pyogenes de doentes com amigdalo-faringite aguda, todas eram susceptíveis à penicilina e outros antibióticos beta-lactâmicos, mas 18,9% eram resistentes à eritromicina, claritromicina e azitromicina. Nas estirpes resistentes foi mais frequente o fenótipo M (67,0%) que confere resistência à eritromicina (CIM90=16 mg/L), claritromicina e azitromicina, mas susceptibilidade à clindamicina (CIM90=0,094 mg/L). De doentes com infecção do aparelho respiratório inferior estudaram-se 1300 estirpes de Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococos), 829 de Haemophilus influenzae e 303 de Moraxella catarrhalis. Em S. pneumoniae, 18,4% das estirpes eram resistentes à penicilina (3,5% com resistência elevada), 7,1% à cefuroxima, 0,5% à amoxicilina, 0,5% à amoxicilina/clavulanato, 18,8% à eritromicina, claritromicina e azitromicina, 14,5 % à tetraciclina, 16,5% ao cotrimoxazol e 0,4% à levofloxacina. Nas estirpes resistentes aos macrólidos, dominou o fenótipo MLSB (83,7%), caracterizado por resistência elevada (CIM90>256 mg/L) à eritromicina, claritromicina, azitromicina e clindamicina. Produziam beta- -lactamase 10,0% de H. influenzae e 96,4% de M. catarrhalis. Em H. influenzae demonstrou-se 5,5% de resistência à claritromicina e 13,4% ao cotrimoxazol. A quase totalidade das estirpes era susceptível à amoxicilina / clavulanato, cefuroxima, azitromicina, tetraciclina e ciprofloxacina. Em M. catarrhalis a resistência ao co-trimoxazol foi de 27,1% e à tetraciclina de 1,0%. Todas as estirpes eram susceptíveis à amoxicilina / clavulanato, cefuroxima, claritromicina, azitromicina e ciprofloxacina. De entre o conjunto de antibióticos ensaiado, a penicilina continua a ser o mais activocontra S. pyogenes e a amoxicilina / clavulanato e as quinolonas os mais activos simultaneamente contra S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae e M. catarrhalis