‘Perceptions of non-accidental child deaths as preventable events: The impact of probability heuristics and biases on child protection work'

Anxiety about the possibility of non-accidental deaths of children has had a major influence on child care policy and practice over the last 40 years. The formal inquiry reports and media coverage of these rare events serve to maintain the perception that these are regular incidents that happen far too often and that they could have been prevented. This focus on individual events tends to distort a clear view of the actual probability of non-accidental deaths and serves to reinforce the notion that potentially all child care cases are risky and that any social work practitioner could be involved in such a case. As a result, work with children has become highly risk averse. However, in statistical terms, the probability of non-accidental child deaths is very low and recently has averaged about 55 deaths a year. Children are at considerably higher risk of being killed on the roads. This paper examines the way in which perceptions of the ‘high’ level of risk of possible child deaths are maintained despite the very low statistical probability of such incidents. It draws on thinking from behavioural psychology and, in particular the work of Kahneman and Tversky, to consider some of the biases in probability reasoning affecting people’s perception of risk and explores how inquiry reports into single past events reconfirm risk perceptions. It is suggested that recognition of the essentially unpredictable nature of future non-accidental child deaths would free up childcare professionals to work in a more positive and less risk-averse manner in the present

‘Perceptions of non-accidental child deaths as preventable events: The impact of probability heuristics and biases on child protection work'

Anxiety about the possibility of non-accidental deaths of children has had a major influence on child care policy and practice over the last 40 years. The formal inquiry reports and media coverage of these rare events serve to maintain the perception that these are regular incidents that happen far too often and that they could have been prevented. This focus on individual events tends to distort a clear view of the actual probability of non-accidental deaths and serves to reinforce the notion that potentially all child care cases are risky and that any social work practitioner could be involved in such a case. As a result, work with children has become highly risk averse. However, in statistical terms, the probability of non-accidental child deaths is very low and recently has averaged about 55 deaths a year. Children are at considerably higher risk of being killed on the roads. This paper examines the way in which perceptions of the ‘high’ level of risk of possible child deaths are maintained despite the very low statistical probability of such incidents. It draws on thinking from behavioural psychology and, in particular the work of Kahneman and Tversky, to consider some of the biases in probability reasoning affecting people’s perception of risk and explores how inquiry reports into single past events reconfirm risk perceptions. It is suggested that recognition of the essentially unpredictable nature of future non-accidental child deaths would free up childcare professionals to work in a more positive and less risk-averse manner in the present

First Light for Station V of the Low-Frequency All-Sky Monitor Radio Telescope

—The Low-Frequency All-Sky Monitor is a radio telescope network consisting of five stations, each with 13 LongWavelength Array (LWA) antennas, distributed around the North American continent. The LWA antennas are arranged so as to form a wide-angle drift scan beam, sensitive to bright radio transients, astrophysical and ionospheric, at 10–88 MHz. The multiple stations can reliably verify astrophysical events by simultaneous detection. Adding the fifth station at Hillsdale College in Hillsdale, MI, provides a wider range of declination coverage for the project. Station V, like the previous four stations, was constructed by undergraduate researchers, who continue to operate and manage the telescope. Here we report on Station V’s “first light”, and discuss future prospects

A multi-nutrient supplement reduced markers of inflammation and improved physical performance in active individuals of middle to older age: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study

Abstract Background While exercise acts to combat inflammation and aging, the ability to exercise may itself be compromised by inflammation and inflammation's impact on muscle recovery and joint inflammation. A number of nutritional supplements have been shown to reduce inflammation and improve recovery. The purpose of the current investigation was to examine the effect of a multi-nutrient supplement containing branched chain amino acids, taurine, anti-inflammatory plant extracts, and B vitamins on inflammatory status, endothelial function, physical function, and mood in middle-aged individuals. Methods Thirty-one healthy and active men (N = 16, mean age 56 ± 6.0 yrs) and women (N = 15, mean age = 52 ± 7.5 yrs) participated in this investigation. Subjects completed one 28 day cycle of placebo supplementation and one 28 day cycle of multi-nutrient supplementation (separated by a one week washout period) in a balanced, randomized, double-blind, cross-over design. Subjects completed weekly perceptual logs (PROMIS-57, KOOS) and pre- and post- testing around the supplementation period. Testing consisted of brachial artery flow mediated dilation (FMD), blood measures, and physical performance on vertical jump, handgrip strength, and balance (dispersion from center of pressure). Significance for the investigation was p ≤ 0.05. Results IL-6 significantly decreased in both men (from 1.2 ± 0.2 to 0.7 ± 0.4 pg·mL-1) and women (from 1.16 ± 0.04 to 0.7 ± 0.4 pg·mL-1). Perceived energy also improved for both men (placebo: 1.8 ± 0.7; supplement: 3.7 ± 0.8 AUC) and women (placebo: 1.2 ± 0.7; supplement: 2.8 ± 0.8 AUC). Alpha-1-antichymotrypsin (from 108.9 ± 38.6 to 55.5 ± 22.2 ug·mL-1), Creatine Kinase (from 96 ± 34 to 67 ± 23 IU·L-1), general pain, and joint pain decreased in men only, while anxiety and balance (from 0.52 ± 0.13 to 0.45 ± 0.12 cm) improved in women only. Men showed increased performance in vertical jump power (from 2642 ± 244 to 3134 ± 282 W) and grip strength (from 42.1 ± 5.9 to 48.5 ± 4.9 kg). Conclusions A multi-nutrient supplement is effective in improving inflammatory status in both men and women, markers of pain, joint pain, strength, and power in men only, and both anxiety and balance (a risk factor for hip fracture) in women. Therefore, a multi-nutrient supplement may help middle-aged individuals to prolong physical function and maintain a healthy, active lifestyle.</p

Effects of Fatigue from Resistance Training on Barbell Back Squat Biomechanics

Exhaustive resistance training programs that have been previously referred to as extreme conditioning protocols have increased in popularity in military and civilian populations in recent years. However, because of their highly fatiguing nature, proprioception is likely altered during such programs that would significantly affect the safety and efficacy of such programs. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the alterations in movement patterns that result from extreme conditioning protocols and to evaluate if these protocols can be deemed safe and effective. Twelve men (age 24 ± 4.2 years, height 173.1 ± 3.6 cm, weight 76.9 ± 7.8 kg, body fat percentage 9.0 ± 2.2%) and 13 women (age 24.5 ± 3.8 years, height 166.9 ± 8.5 cm, weight 66.1 ± 9.2 kg, body fat percentage 18.6 ± 4.0%) with at least 6 months of resistance training experience involving barbell bench press, barbell deadlift, and barbell back squat performed a highly fatiguing resistance training workout. During the barbell back squat, a 2-dimensional analysis was performed where the knee and hip angles were recorded throughout the 55 repetitions of the workout. At the early stages of the protocol, knee angle was significantly lower in men and in women demonstrating less knee flexion. Also, hip angle was significantly lower early in the program in men and in women, demonstrating a greater forward lean. The technique changes that occur in high repetition sets do not favor optimal strength development and may increase the risk of injury, clearly questioning the safety and efficacy of such resistance training programming. This is likely a display of self-preservation by individuals who are faced with high repetition programs