Using timing of ice retreat to predict timing of fall freeze-up in the Arctic

Reliable forecasts of the timing of sea ice advance are needed in order to reduce risks associatedwith operating in the Arctic as well as planning of human and environmental emergencies. This studyinvestigates the use of a simple statistical model relating the timing of ice retreat to the timing of ice advance,taking advantage of the inherent predictive power supplied by the seasonal ice-albedo feedback and oceanheat uptake. Results show that using the last retreat date to predict the first advance date is applicable insome regions, such as Baffin Bay and the Laptev and East Siberian seas, where a predictive skill is found evenafter accounting for the long-term trend in both variables. Elsewhere, in the Arctic, there is some predictive skillsdepending on the year (e.g., Kara and Beaufort seas), but none in regions such as the Barents and Bering seas orthe Sea of Okhotsk. While there is some suggestion that the relationship is strengthening over time, this mayreflect that higher correlations are expected during periods when the underlying trend is strong

On the use of radon for quantifying the effects of atmospheric stability on urban emissions

Radon is increasingly being used as a tool for quantifying stability influences on urban pollutant concentrations. Bulk radon gradients are ideal for this purpose, since the vertical differencing substantially removes contributions from processes on timescales greater than diurnal and (assuming a constant radon source) gradients are directly related to the intensity of nocturnal mixing. More commonly, however, radon measurements are available only at a single height. In this study we argue that single-height radon observations should not be used quantitatively as an indicator of atmospheric stability without prior conditioning of the time series to remove contributions from larger-scale "non-local" processes. We outline a simple technique to obtain an approximation of the diurnal radon gradient signal from a single-height measurement time series, and use it to derive a four category classification scheme for atmospheric stability on a "whole night" basis. A selection of climatological and pollution observations in the Sydney region are then subdivided according to the radon-based scheme on an annual and seasonal basis. We compare the radon-based scheme against a commonly used Pasquill–Gifford (P–G) type stability classification and reveal that the most stable category in the P–G scheme is less selective of the strongly stable nights than the radon-based scheme; this lead to significant underestimation of pollutant concentrations on the most stable nights by the P–G scheme. Lastly, we applied the radon-based classification scheme to mixing height estimates calculated from the diurnal radon accumulation time series, which provided insight to the range of nocturnal mixing depths expected at the site for each of the stability classes. © 2015, Author(s)

Sources of seasonal sea-ice bias for CMIP6 models in the Hudson Bay Complex

The seasonal ice-free period in the Hudson Bay Complex (HBC) has grown longer in recent decades in response to warming, both from progressively earlier sea-ice retreat in summer and later sea-ice advance in fall. Such changes disrupt the HBC ecosystem and ice-based human activities. In this study, we compare 102 simulations from 37 models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to the satellite passive microwave record and atmospheric reanalyses. We show that, throughout the HBC, models simulate an ice-free period that averages 30 d longer than in satellite observations. This occurs because seasonal sea-ice advance is unrealistically late and seasonal sea-ice retreat is unrealistically early. We find that much of the ice-season bias can be linked to a warm bias in the atmosphere that is associated with a southerly wind bias, especially in summer. Many models also exhibit an easterly wind bias during winter and spring, which reduces sea-ice convergence on the east side of Hudson Bay and impacts the spatial patterns of summer sea-ice retreat. These results suggest that, for many models, more realistic simulation of atmospheric circulation would improve their simulation of HBC sea ice

Variability, trends and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea

As assessed over the period 1979–2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of −0.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back to the shelf break has a steeper trend of about +1.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days. Based on detrended time series, we ask how interannual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind (from numerical reanalyses), and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated (r ∼ 0.8) with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. After testing a suite of statistical linear models using several potential predictors, the best model for predicting the date of retreat includes only the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow, which explains 68% of retreat date variance. The best model predicting the ice advance date includes the July through September inflow and the date of retreat, explaining 67% of advance date variance. We address these relationships by discussing heat balances within the Chukchi Sea, and the hypothesis of oceanic heat transport triggering ocean heat uptake and ice-albedo feedback. Developing an operational prediction scheme for seasonal retreat and advance would require timely acquisition of Bering Strait heat inflow data. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns

Linkages between Arctic summer circulation regimes and regional sea ice anomalies

The downward trend in overall Arctic summer sea ice extent has been substantial, particularly in the last few decades. Departures in ice extent from year to year can be very large, however, in part due to the high variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns. Anomalies in the Pacific sector ice cover can be partially compensated by anomalies of opposite sign in the Atlantic sector. An assessment of linkages between summer atmospheric patterns and sectoral anomalies in the area of maximum open water north of 70°N demonstrates that there is asymmetry in the mechanisms. Years with low ice extent and high open water fraction are uniformly associated with positive temperature anomalies and southerly flow in both the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. However, years with high extent and low open water fraction in both sectors reveal two dominant mechanisms. Some years with anomalously low maximum open water fraction are associated with negative temperature anomalies and southerly transport—a cool summer pattern that allows ice to persist over larger areas. However, other low open water years are characterized by an “ice factory” mechanism, whereby—even when melting—ice cover is continually replenished by advection from the north

Particulate pollution in the Sydney Region: source diagnostics and synoptic controls

Airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) was sampled at Richmond and Liverpool, located in the Sydney Basin, Australia, and ion beam analysis was used to obtain the elemental composition. Using self-organising maps to classify synoptic weather systems, it was found that high PM2.5 concentrations were associated with high pressure systems located to the east of the sampling sites. The highest median sulfur was associated with weak synoptic conditions and high soil dust days were more often associated with frontal systems. To investigate the effect of local flows in the Sydney Basin, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) was used to generate meteorological data of 12 km resolution. A comparison was made between back trajectories generated using the higher-resolution WRF data, the 0.5° by 0.5° Climate Forecast System data and the 1° by 1° Global Data Assimilation System data. It was found that for high soil dust days, there were small differences between the different back trajectories. However, under weak synoptic conditions (high sulfur days), the back trajectories generated from higher resolution data showed larger variations over a 24 hr period. This was attributed to the meandering of local winds and seabreezes. Lower altitude back trajectories, generated from low resolution data, passed more often over the power stations located on the western side of the Great Dividing Range (while the sampling sites are on the east). This demonstrates the need for higher resolution meteorological data for generating low altitude back trajectories when the source and receptor are separated by hilly terrain. In estimating the number of high sulfur days for which a power station was crossed, there was up to 20% difference at Liverpool and up to 10% difference at Richmond, between back trajectories starting at different altitudes and generated from meteorological data of three different resolutions

Characterising terrestrial influences on Antarctic air masses using Radon-222 measurements at King George Island

We report on one year of high-precision direct hourly radon observations at King Sejong Station (King George Island) beginning in February 2013. Findings are compared with historic and ongoing radon measurements from other Antarctic sites. Monthly median concentrations reduced from 72 mBq m−3 in late-summer to 44 mBq m−3 in late winter and early spring. Monthly 10th percentiles, ranging from 29 to 49 mBq m−3, were typical of oceanic baseline values. Diurnal cycles were rarely evident and local influences were minor, consistent with regional radon flux estimates one tenth of the global average for ice-free land. The predominant fetch region for terrestrially influenced air masses was South America (47–53° S), with minor influences also attributed to aged Australian air masses and local sources. Plume dilution factors of 2.8–4.0 were estimated for the most terrestrially influenced (South American) air masses, and a seasonal cycle in terrestrial influence on tropospheric air descending at the pole was identified and characterised. © Author(s) 201

Constraining annual and seasonal radon-222 flux density from the Southern Ocean using radon-222 concentrations in the boundary layer at Cape Grim

Radon concentrations measured between 2001 and 2008 in marine air at Cape Grim, a baseline site in northwestern Tasmania, are used to constrain the radon flux density from the Southern Ocean. A method is described for selecting hourly radon concentrations that are least perturbed by land emissions and dilution by the free troposphere. The distribution of subsequent radon flux density estimates is representative of a large area of the Southern Ocean, an important fetch region for Southern Hemisphere climate and air pollution studies. The annual mean flux density (0.27 mBq m 2 s 1) compares well with the mean of the limited number of spot measurements previously conducted in the Southern Ocean (0.24 mBq m 2 s 1), and to some spot measurements made in other oceanic regions. However, a number of spot measurements in other oceanic regions, as well as most oceanic radon flux density values assumed for modelling studies and intercomparisons, are considerably lower than the mean reported here. The reported radon flux varies with seasons and, in summer, with latitude. It also shows a quadratic dependence on wind speed and significant wave height, as postulated and measured by others, which seems to support our assumption that the selected least perturbed radon concentrations were in equilibrium with the oceanic radon source. By comparing the least perturbed radon observations in 2002 2003 with corresponding ‘TransCom’ model intercomparison results, the best agreement is found when assuming a normally distributed radon flux density with s 0.075 mBq m 2 s 1. © 2013, W. Zahorowski et al

Improving the Representation of Cross-Boundary Transport of Anthropogenic Pollution in East Asia Using Radon-222.

We report on 10 years of hourly atmospheric radon, CO, and SO2 observations at Gosan Station, Korea. An improved radon detector was installed during this period and performance of the detectors is compared. A technique is developed whereby the distribution of radon concentrations from a fetch region can be used to select air masses that have consistently been in direct contact with land-based emissions, and have been least diluted en route to the measurement site. Hourly radon concentrations are used to demonstrate and characterise contamination of remote-fetch pollution observations by local emissions at this key WMO GAW site, and a seasonally-varying 5-hour diurnal sampling window is proposed for days on which diurnal cycles are evident to minimise these effects. The seasonal variability in mixing depth and “background” pollutant concentrations are characterised. Based on a subset of observations most representative of the important regional fetch areas for this site, and least affected by local emissions, seasonal estimates of CO and SO2 in air masses originating from South China, North China, Korea and Japan are compared across the decade of observations. 2016, © Taiwan Association for Aerosol Researc

Record winter winds in 2020/21 drove exceptional Arctic sea ice transport

AbstractThe volume of Arctic sea ice is in decline but exhibits high interannual variability, which is driven primarily by atmospheric circulation. Through analysis of satellite-derived ice products and atmospheric reanalysis data, we show that winter 2020/21 was characterised by anomalously high sea-level pressure over the central Arctic Ocean, which resulted in unprecedented anticyclonic winds over the sea ice. This atmospheric circulation pattern drove older sea ice from the central Arctic Ocean into the lower-latitude Beaufort Sea, where it is more vulnerable to melting in the coming warm season. We suggest that this unusual atmospheric circulation may potentially lead to unusually high summer losses of the Arctic’s remaining store of old ice.</jats:p