Have U.S.-Japan Trade Agreements Made a Difference?

The few existing empirical studies of U.S.-Japan trade agreements have relied primarily on descriptive statistics or univariate time series methods. We conduct a more powerful test by evaluating agreements in the context of well-specified econometric models. Consistent with trade theory, import demand is modeled as a cointegrating relationship with income and relative price variables, where a trade agreement may cause a structural break in the cointegrating vector. In several cases, we find evidence that market-opening trade agreements may have increased the volume of Japanese imports, while other agreements appear to have had no significant impact.structural break tests; U.S.-Japan trade agreements; import promotion policies

Have US-Japan Trade Agreements Made a Difference?

The few existing empirical studies of U.S.-Japan trade agreements have relied primarily on descriptive statistics or univariate time series methods. We conduct a more powerful test by evaluating agreements in the context of well-specified econometric models. Consistent with trade theory, import demand is modeled as a cointegrating relationship with income and relative price variables, where a trade agreement may cause a structural break in the cointegrating vector. In several cases, we find evidence that market-opening trade agreements may have increased the volume of Japanese imports, while other agreements appear to have had no significant impact.Structural break test, U.S.-Japan trade agreements, import promotion policies

Using Structural Break Tests to Evaluate Policy Change: The Impact of U.S.-Japan Trade Agreements

Empirical evaluations of trade agreements often rely on descriptive statistics or univariate time series methods to detect subsequent changes in trade flows. We conduct a more satisfactory test by evaluating an agreement in the context of a structural econometric model. Consistent with trade theory, import demand is modeled as a cointegrating relationship with income and relative price variables, where trade agreements may cause structural changes in cointegrating vectors. This approach is applied to study the effect of several U.S.-Japan market-opening trade agreements; in three of seven industries we find evidence of structural change that may be related to trade agreements.structural break tests; U.S.-Japan trade agreements; import promotion policies

Coos Bay

Having glazed the sand and driftwood, The water slips away and breezes whisper To the foam on languished waves; A cry far-off of sea birds Wheeling in the sunset air, Not knowing that they, like the waves In their calm motion, shall spend the night Sleeping with the stars

Paraesthesia

Yesterday our days were melted in the sun, Bled of their life stuff and essences into Gutters and sewers; and being nothing More than a sun-streaked afternoon, We should call it the last sighting Of the shadow of a shadow of a cloud, Sweeping past the hillside and the snow, Trickling from the weathered rock and cracking, Forming torrent-streams on mountain slopes, And tearing with tiny fingers At the tree roots in the land Merging valleys..

Sunday City Rain Storm

The Sunday Morning Chronicle of times In paper pages, unheeded through the day, Fell off to sleep with the resonant afternoon Houseflies and stale coffee..

I Returned With Me Home

I returned with me home The other day To streets that I knew. Unchanged. Lined with trees. Studded with houses Like stones In a dime-store brooch..

Genesis On Ice

Amorphous thing, the snow, the way it stands In admonition, melting with our lands A little at a time so no one knows Tha t ever passing days have changed the snows From soft and downy things to blue-steel ice. Jagged and crystal now, the hard device Of rhythmic time is the snow\u27s transposing stare.

Import variety and productivity in Japan

This paper constructs import variety indices, as developed by Feenstra (1994), for 21 industries over a twenty year period for Japan. Next, both single-equation and panel regressions of productivity (TFP) on import variety and R&D are conducted. Results find that increased import variety, both own-variety and upstream inputs, positively affect productivity.variety index, imports, growth, TFP, Japan

Surface forces: Surface roughness in theory and experiment

A method of incorporating surface roughness into theoretical calculations of surface forces is presented. The model contains two chief elements. First, surface roughness is represented as a probability distribution of surface heights around an average surface height. A roughness-averaged force is determined by taking an average of the classic flat-surface force, weighing all possible separation distances against the probability distributions of surface heights. Second the model adds a repulsive contact force due to the elastic contact of asperities. We derive a simple analytic expression for the contact force. The general impact of roughness is to amplify the long range behaviour of noncontact (DLVO) forces. The impact of the elastic contact force is to provide a repulsive wall which is felt at a separation between surfaces that scales with the root-mean-square (RMS) roughness of the surfaces. The model therefore provides a means of distinguishing between "true zero," where the separation between the average centres of each surface is zero, and "apparent zero," defined by the onset of the repulsive contact wall. A normal distribution may be assumed for the surface probability distribution, characterised by the RMS roughness measured by atomic force microscopy (AFM). Alternatively the probability distribution may be defined by the histogram of heights measured by AFM. Both methods of treating surface roughness are compared against the classic smooth surface calculation and experimental AFM measurement