Has the Office for Budget Responsibility achieved genuine independence from government?

Having been established by the government to take the politics out of fiscal and economic forecasting, the independence of the Office for Budget Responsibility is fundamental to its credibility and legitimacy. The appointment of Robert Chote as Chair in 2010 appears to have enhanced the OBR’s standing in this regard, but has not completely swept away all concerns about the OBR’s relationship to government. On the day the OBR releases its latest analysis of the UK’s public finances, Craig Berry and Richard Berry ask whether the agency has yet been able to break free from the political grasp of the Treasury

Crowdsourced Rumour Identification During Emergencies

When a significant event occurs, many social media users leverage platforms such as Twitter to track that event. Moreover, emergency response agencies are increasingly looking to social media as a source of real-time information about such events. However, false information and rumours are often spread during such events, which can influence public opinion and limit the usefulness of social media for emergency management. In this paper, we present an initial study into rumour identification during emergencies using crowdsourcing. In particular, through an analysis of three tweet datasets relating to emergency events from 2014, we propose a taxonomy of tweets relating to rumours. We then perform a crowdsourced labeling experiment to determine whether crowd assessors can identify rumour-related tweets and where such labeling can fail. Our results show that overall, agreement over the tweet labels produced were high (0.7634 Fleiss Kappa), indicating that crowd-based rumour labeling is possible. However, not all tweets are of equal difficulty to assess. Indeed, we show that tweets containing disputed/controversial information tend to be some of the most difficult to identify

A Mean-field statistical theory for the nonlinear Schrodinger equation

A statistical model of self-organization in a generic class of one-dimensional nonlinear Schrodinger (NLS) equations on a bounded interval is developed. The main prediction of this model is that the statistically preferred state for such equations consists of a deterministic coherent structure coupled with fine-scale, random fluctuations, or radiation. The model is derived from equilibrium statistical mechanics by using a mean-field approximation of the conserved Hamiltonian and particle number for finite-dimensional spectral truncations of the NLS dynamics. The continuum limits of these approximated statistical equilibrium ensembles on finite-dimensional phase spaces are analyzed, holding the energy and particle number at fixed, finite values. The analysis shows that the coherent structure minimizes total energy for a given value of particle number and hence is a solution to the NLS ground state equation, and that the remaining energy resides in Gaussian fluctuations equipartitioned over wavenumbers. Some results of direct numerical integration of the NLS equation are included to validate empirically these properties of the most probable states for the statistical model. Moreover, a theoretical justification of the mean-field approximation is given, in which the approximate ensembles are shown to concentrate on the associated microcanonical ensemble in the continuum limit.Comment: 24 pages, 2 figure

Mergers and risk

This paper examines the impact of mergers on default risk, finding that, on average, a merger increases the default risk of the acquiring firm. This is surprising for two reasons: risk reduction is among the reasons commonly cited for mergers, and asset diversification should reduce default risk unless the newly-merged firm takes some action to increase risk. We associate the risk increase with mergers satisfying one of a trifecta of conditions related to agency problems: mergers financed with stock, acquirers with a high market- to-book ratio, and acquirers with poor stock price performance prior to a merger announcement. We also demonstrate higher levels of default risk are not accompanied by higher post- merger returns.Bank mergers ; Risk management

Believability and Attitudes toward Alcohol Warning Label Information: The Role of Persuasive Communications Theory

Based on tenets of persuasive communications theory, five recently proposed alcohol warning labels are examined for their differential impact on label believability and attitudes. While all warnings are rated as believable, the ones regarding birth defects and driving impairment are perceived to be significantly more believable than the others. In addition, persons with more favorable attitudes toward alcohol consumption tend to disbelieve specific instance hazards (e.g., birth defects, driving impairment and drug combination warnings), while disliking longterm risks of alcohol consumption and abuse (e.g., hypertension, liver disease, cancer and addiction warnings). Implications for public policy and researchers are discussed