Building a framework for process-oriented evaluation of Regional Climate Outlook Forums

In many regions around the world, Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) provide seasonal climate information and forecasts to decision-makers at regional and national levels. Despite having two decades of experience, the forums have not been systematically monitored or evaluated. To address this gap, and to better inform nascent and widespread efforts in climate services, the authors propose a process-oriented evaluation framework derived from literature on decision support and climate communication around the production and use of scientific information.The authors apply this framework to a case study of the Caribbean RCOF (CariCOF), where they have been engaged in a collaborative effort to integrate climate information and decision processes to enhance regional climate resilience. The authors’ examination of the CariCOF shows an evolution toward the use of more advanced and more diverse climate products, as well as greater awareness of user feedback. It also reveals shortfalls of the CariCOF, including a lack of diverse stakeholder participation, a need for better understanding of best practices to tailor information, undeveloped market research of climate products, insufficient experimentation and vetting of communication mechanisms, and the absence of a way to steward a diverse network of regional actors. The authors’ analysis also provides insight that allowed for improvements in the climate services framework to include mechanisms to respond to changing needs and conditions. The authors’ process-oriented framework can serve as a starting point for evaluating RCOFs and other organizations charged with the provision of climate services

Pelagic Sargassum Prediction and Marine Connectivity in the Tropical Atlantic

Since 2011, pelagic Sargassum has experienced extraordinary blooms in the Tropical Atlantic where a system of persistent but seasonally variable currents has retained and consolidated it in large masses. Although beneficial at sea, principally as a unique pelagic habitat, when Sargassum inundates the nearshore environment it can have catastrophic effects on tourism, fisheries, health, and local ecosystems. Providing advanced warning of arrival dates of large masses of Sargassum is critical for enabling preparations and planning for its removal, use, and mitigation. Predictions of arrival time and location involve satellite identification of Sargassum at sea together with ocean current data for forward model tracking. However, forecast ocean current data are generally valid for only 5—7 days. In this study, ocean currents from 2 models (HYCOM and OSCAR) are validated against satellite tracked drifters from the Global Drifter Program with vector correlation and with skill in replicating a drifter pathway. Various wind additions to the models are also tested. Although both models capture the surface current systems in the Tropical Atlantic, they are mediocre in performance along both boundaries. In contrast, a drifter based current data model with 0.5% wind addition had high skill levels. This skill—tested drifter—based model was then used to determine marine connectivity across the Tropical Atlantic and suggests a much broader spread of Sargassum in the eastern Tropical Atlantic than is presently observed by satellites, conforming to earlier hypotheses. This model forms the basis for seasonal scale Sargassum forecasting

Forecasting seasonal sargassum events across the tropical Atlantic: overview and challenges

Proliferation of sargassum across the tropical Atlantic since 2011 has motivated a range of forecasting methods. Statistical methods based on basin-scale satellite data are used to address seasonal timescales. Other methods involve explicit Lagrangian calculations of trajectories for particles that are representative of drifting sargassum over days-months. This computed sargassum drift is attributed to the combined action of surface currents, winds and waves, individually or in various combinations. Such calculations are undertaken with both observed surface drift and simulated currents, each involving strengths and weaknesses. Observed drift implicitly includes the action on sargassum of winds and waves, assumed equivalent between drifters and sargassum mats. Simulated currents provide large gridded datasets that facilitate computation of ensembles, enabling some quantification of the uncertainty inherent in an eddy-rich ocean, further subject to interannual variability. A more limited number of forecasts account for in situ growth or loss of sargassum biomass, subject to considerable uncertainty. Forecasts provide either non-dimensional indices or quantities of sargassum, accumulated in specified areas or counted across specified transects over a given time interval. Proliferation of different forecast methodologies may reduce uncertainty, if predictions for given seasons are consistent in broad terms, but there is scope to coordinate different approaches with common geographical foci and predicted variables, to facilitate direct inter-comparisons. In an example of forecasting westward sargassum flux into the Caribbean during the first half of 2022, challenges and opportunities are highlighted. In conclusion, prospects for closer alignment of complementary forecasting methods, and implications for sargassum management, are identified

Polycentric governance, coordination and capacity: The case of sargassum influxes in the Caribbean

The merits of polycentric climate governance have attracted considerable discussion. On the one hand, polycentric governance offers an alternative to top-down state-centric forms that have so far proven elusive. On the other, highly networked systems increase coordination challenges. Less attention has been paid to the varying capacities required to achieve coordination. In this article we explore the coordination of polycentric governance via a case study of sargassum influx management in the Caribbean. Since 2011, large quantities of sargassum seaweed have been washing up on Caribbean beaches with adverse socio-economic impacts. Our analysis of sargassum management policies reveals that a nascent polycentric system has generated significant cooperation in policy development and application across the region. However, there remain national capacity deficits to engage in this form of governance and to implement agreed actions. We conclude that advocates of a polycentric climate governance regime need to consider how capacity shapes participation, to the advantage of the largest and strongest. Polycentric governance can be useful for solving disparate cross-border environmental problems, but it also imposes a cost on the smallest that has thus far been unacknowledged and undertheorized

Fit for purpose? Transforming National Meteorological and Hydrological Services into National Climate Service Centers

Climate services are becoming an important strategy for delivering climate information to users around the world. In many countries, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) are charged with providing climate services to diverse audiences. Climate services are important to foster adaptation to climate risks and in reducing vulnerability in developing world contexts. However, the production and delivery of user-oriented climate services place new burdens on NMHSs and require new skillsets, partnerships, and infrastructure. In this paper, we assess the capabilities of 22 NMHSs in Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to understand whether and how NMHSs are fit for the purpose of providing climate services. Our assessment is framed around the five core pillars of the World Meteorological Organizations Global Framework for Climate Services. We find that the NMHSs face key capacity gaps in the technical production, translation, transfer, and facilitation of the use of climate information. Some of these gaps have historical roots and relate to the overarching legal, political, and institutional settings in which NMHSs were established and currently operate. Others relate to an increased emphasis on users in ways that contrast with traditional NMHSs' engagement with stakeholders. These results suggest that investments that support the co-production of climate information while also addressing prevailing legal, political, and institutional disconnects and human resource constraints can strengthen the provision of climate services in Caribbean SIDS.United States Agency for International DevelopmentOpen access journalThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Outbreak of Zika Virus Infections, Dominica, 2016

In February 2016, the World Health Organization declared the pandemic of Zika virus a public health emergency. On March 4, 2016, Dominica reported its first autochthonous Zika virus disease case; subsequently, 1,263 cases were reported. We describe the outbreak through November 2016, when the last known case was reported