Optimal Design of Intervention Studies to Prevent Influenza in Healthy Cohorts

Background: Influenza cohort studies, in which participants are monitored for infection over an epidemic period, are invaluable in assessing the effectiveness of control measures such as vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Influenza infections and illnesses can be identified through a number of approaches with different costs and logistical requirements. Methodology and Principal Findings: In the context of a randomized controlled trial of an NPI with a constrained budget, we used a simulation approach to examine which approaches to measuring outcomes could provide greater statistical power to identify an effective intervention against confirmed influenza. We found that for a short epidemic season, the optimal design was to collect respiratory specimens at biweekly intervals, as well as following report of acute respiratory illness (ARI), for virologic testing by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Collection of respiratory specimens only from individuals reporting ARI was also an efficient design particularly for studies in settings with longer periods of influenza activity. Collection of specimens only from individuals reporting a febrile ARI was less efficient. Collection and testing of sera before and after influenza activity appeared to be inferior to collection of respiratory specimens for RT-PCR confirmation of acute infections. The performance of RT-PCR was robust to uncertainty in the costs and diagnostic performance of RT-PCR and serological tests

The incidence and clinical burden of respiratory syncytial virus disease identified through hospital outpatient presentations in Kenyan children

There is little information that describe the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated disease in the tropical African outpatient setting. Methods We studied a systematic sample of children aged <5 years presenting to a rural district hospital in Kenya with acute respiratory infection (ARI) between May 2002 and April 2004. We collected clinical data and screened nasal wash samples for RSV antigen by immunofluorescence. We used a linked demographic surveillance system to estimate disease incidence. Results Among 2143 children tested, 166 (8%) were RSV positive (6% among children with upper respiratory tract infection and 12% among children with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). RSV was more likely in LRTI than URTI (p<0.001). 51% of RSV cases were aged 1 year or over. RSV cases represented 3.4% of hospital outpatient presentations. Relative to RSV negative cases, RSV positive cases were more likely to have crackles (RR = 1.63; 95% CI 1.34–1.97), nasal flaring (RR = 2.66; 95% CI 1.40–5.04), in-drawing (RR = 2.24; 95% CI 1.47–3.40), fast breathing for age (RR = 1.34; 95% CI 1.03–1.75) and fever (RR = 1.54; 95% CI 1.33–1.80). The estimated incidence of RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTI, per 100,000 child years, among those aged <5 years was 767 and 283, respectively. Conclusion The burden of childhood RSV-associated URTI and LRTI presenting to outpatients in this setting is considerable. The clinical features of cases associated with an RSV infection were more severe than cases without an RSV diagnosis

Status of Pandemic Influenza Vaccination and Factors Affecting It in Pregnant Women in Kahramanmaras, an Eastern Mediterranean City of Turkey

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women are a target group for receipt of influenza vaccine because there appears to be an elevated mortality and morbidity rate associated with influenza virus infection in pregnant women. The goal of this study is to determine the factors affecting the decisions of pregnant women in Turkey to be vaccinated or not for 2009 H1N1 influenza. METHODOLOGY: We enrolled 314 of 522 (60.2%) pregnant women who attended to the antenatal clinics of the Medical Faculty of Kahramanmaras Sutcuimam University's Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics between December 23, 2009, and February 1, 2010. We developed a 48-question survey which was completed in a face-to-face interview at the clinic with each pregnant woman. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Of the 314 pregnant women, 27.4% were in the first trimester, 33.8% were in the second trimester, and 38.8% were in the third trimester. Twenty-eight pregnant women (8.9%) got vaccinated. Of all the women interviewed, 68.5% stated that they were comfortable with their decisions about the vaccine, 7.3% stated they were not comfortable, and 24.2% stated that they were hesitant about their decisions. The probability of receiving the 2009 H1N1 vaccine was 3.46 times higher among working women than housewives, 1.85 times higher among women who have a child than those who do not, and 1.29 times higher among women with a high-school education or higher than those with only a secondary-school education and below. Correct knowledge about the minimal risks associated with receipt of influenza vaccine were associated with a significant increase in the probability of receiving the 2009 H1N1 vaccine. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The number of pregnant women in the study group who received the 2009 H1N1 vaccine was very low (8.9%) and two-thirds of them stated that they were comfortable with their decisions concerning the vaccine. Our results may have implications for public health measures to increase the currently low vaccination rate among pregnant women. Further studies are required to confirm whether our findings generalize to other influenza seasons and other settings

Understanding consumer demand for new transport technologies and services, and implications for the future of mobility

The transport sector is witnessing unprecedented levels of disruption. Privately owned cars that operate on internal combustion engines have been the dominant modes of passenger transport for much of the last century. However, recent advances in transport technologies and services, such as the development of autonomous vehicles, the emergence of shared mobility services, and the commercialization of alternative fuel vehicle technologies, promise to revolutionise how humans travel. The implications are profound: some have predicted the end of private car dependent Western societies, others have portended greater suburbanization than has ever been observed before. If transport systems are to fulfil current and future needs of different subpopulations, and satisfy short and long-term societal objectives, it is imperative that we comprehend the many factors that shape individual behaviour. This chapter introduces the technologies and services most likely to disrupt prevailing practices in the transport sector. We review past studies that have examined current and future demand for these new technologies and services, and their likely short and long-term impacts on extant mobility patterns. We conclude with a summary of what these new technologies and services might mean for the future of mobility.Comment: 15 pages, 0 figures, book chapte

Estimation of the national disease burden of influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness in Kenya and Guatemala : a novel methodology

Background: Knowing the national disease burden of severe influenza in low-income countries can inform policy decisions around influenza treatment and prevention. We present a novel methodology using locally generated data for estimating this burden. Methods and Findings: This method begins with calculating the hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) incidence for children <5 years old and persons ≥5 years old from population-based surveillance in one province. This base rate of SARI is then adjusted for each province based on the prevalence of risk factors and healthcare-seeking behavior. The percentage of SARI with influenza virus detected is determined from provincial-level sentinel surveillance and applied to the adjusted provincial rates of hospitalized SARI. Healthcare-seeking data from healthcare utilization surveys is used to estimate non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI. Rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI are applied to census data to calculate the national number of cases. The method was field-tested in Kenya, and validated in Guatemala, using data from August 2009–July 2011. In Kenya (2009 population 38.6 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized influenza-associated SARI cases ranged from 17,129–27,659 for children <5 years old (2.9–4.7 per 1,000 persons) and 6,882–7,836 for persons ≥5 years old (0.21–0.24 per 1,000 persons), depending on year and base rate used. In Guatemala (2011 population 14.7 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized cases of influenza-associated pneumonia ranged from 1,065–2,259 (0.5–1.0 per 1,000 persons) among children <5 years old and 779–2,252 cases (0.1–0.2 per 1,000 persons) for persons ≥5 years old, depending on year and base rate used. In both countries, the number of non-hospitalized influenza-associated cases was several-fold higher than the hospitalized cases. Conclusions: Influenza virus was associated with a substantial amount of severe disease in Kenya and Guatemala. This method can be performed in most low and lower-middle income countries

Do smoke-free laws affect revenues in pubs and restaurants?

In the debate about laws regulating smoking in restaurants and pubs, there has been some controversy as to whether smoke-free laws would reduce revenues in the hospitality industry. Norway presents an interesting case for three reasons. First, it was among the first countries to implement smoke-free laws, so it is possible to assess the long-term effects. Second, it has a cold climate so if there is a negative effect on revenue one would expect to find it in Norway. Third, the data from Norway are detailed enough to distinguish between revenue from pubs and restaurants. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) intervention analysis of bi-monthly observations of revenues in restaurants and pubs show that the law did not have a statistically significant long-term effect on revenue in restaurants or on restaurant revenue as a share of personal consumption. Similar analysis for pubs shows that there was no significant long-run effect on pub revenue

Chandrasekhar-Kendall functions in astrophysical dynamos

Some of the contributions of Chandrasekhar to the field of magnetohydrodynamics are highlighted. Particular emphasis is placed on the Chandrasekhar-Kendall functions that allow a decomposition of a vector field into right- and left-handed contributions. Magnetic energy spectra of both contributions are shown for a new set of helically forced simulations at resolutions higher than what has been available so far. For a forcing function with positive helicity, these simulations show a forward cascade of the right-handed contributions to the magnetic field and nonlocal inverse transfer for the left-handed contributions. The speed of inverse transfer is shown to decrease with increasing value of the magnetic Reynolds number.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, proceedings of the Chandrasekhar Centenary Conference, to be published in PRAMANA - Journal of Physic

Herpes zoster related hospitalisation after inactivated (CoronaVac) and mRNA (BNT162b2) SARS-CoV-2 vaccination: a self-controlled case series and nested case-control study

BACKGROUND: Stimulation of immunity by vaccination may elicit adverse events. There is currently inconclusive evidence on the relationship between herpes zoster related hospitalization and COVID-19 vaccination. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of inactivated virus (CoronaVac, Sinovac) and mRNA (BNT162b2, BioNTech/Fosun Pharma) COVID-19 vaccine on the risk of herpes zoster related hospitalization. METHODS: Self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis was conducted using the data from the electronic health records in Hospital Authority and COVID-19 vaccination records in the Department of Health in Hong Kong. We conducted the SCCS analysis including patients with a first primary diagnosis of herpes zoster in the hospital inpatient setting between February 23 and July 31, 2021. A confirmatory analysis by nested case-control method was also conducted. Each herpes zoster case was randomly matched with ten controls according to sex, age, Charlson comorbidity index, and date of hospital admission. Conditional Poisson regression and logistic regression models were used to assess the potential excess rates of herpes zoster after vaccination. FINDINGS: From February 23 to July 31, 2021, a total of 16 and 27 patients were identified with a first primary hospital diagnosis of herpes zoster within 28 days after CoronaVac and BNT162b2 vaccinations. The incidence of herpes zoster was 7.9 (95% Confidence interval [CI]: 5.2–11.5) for CoronaVac and 7.1 (95% CI: 4.1–11.5) for BNT162b2 per 1,000,000 doses administered. In SCCS analysis, CoronaVac vaccination was associated with significantly higher risk of herpes zoster within 14 days after first dose (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR]=2.67, 95% CI: 1.08–6.59) but not in other periods afterwards compared to the baseline period. Regarding BNT162b2 vaccination, a significantly increased risk of herpes zoster was observed after first dose up to 14 days after second dose (0-13 days after first dose: aIRR=5.23, 95% CI: 1.61–17.03; 14–27 days after first dose: aIRR=5.82, 95% CI: 1.62–20.91; 0-13 days after second dose: aIRR=5.14, 95% CI: 1.29–20.47). Using these relative rates, we estimated that there has been an excess of approximately 5 and 7 cases of hospitalization as a result of herpes zoster after every 1,000,000 doses of CoronaVac and BNT162b2 vaccination, respectively. The findings in the nested case control analysis showed similar results. INTERPRETATION: We identified an increased risk of herpes zoster related hospitalization after CoronaVac and BNT162b2 vaccinations. However, the absolute risks of such adverse event after CoronaVac and BNT162b2 vaccinations were very low. In locations where COVID-19 is prevalent, the protective effects on COVID-19 from vaccinations will greatly outweigh the potential side effects of vaccination. FUNDING: The project was funded by Research Grant from the Food and Health Bureau, The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Ref. No.COVID19F01). FTTL (Francisco Tsz Tsun Lai) and ICKW (Ian Chi Kei Wong)’s posts were partly funded by D^{2}4H; hence this work was partly supported by AIR@InnoHK administered by Innovation and Technology Commission

Theory of disk accretion onto supermassive black holes

Accretion onto supermassive black holes produces both the dramatic phenomena associated with active galactic nuclei and the underwhelming displays seen in the Galactic Center and most other nearby galaxies. I review selected aspects of the current theoretical understanding of black hole accretion, emphasizing the role of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence and gravitational instabilities in driving the actual accretion and the importance of the efficacy of cooling in determining the structure and observational appearance of the accretion flow. Ongoing investigations into the dynamics of the plunging region, the origin of variability in the accretion process, and the evolution of warped, twisted, or eccentric disks are summarized.Comment: Mostly introductory review, to appear in "Supermassive black holes in the distant Universe", ed. A.J. Barger, Kluwer Academic Publishers, in pres

Perceptions and behaviors related to hand hygiene for the prevention of H1N1 influenza transmission among Korean university students during the peak pandemic period

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study was performed to better assess the perceptions, motivating factors, and behaviors associated with the use of hand washing to prevent H1N1 influenza transmission during the peak pandemic period in Korea.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional survey questionnaire was completed by 942 students at a university campus in Suwon, Korea, between December 1 and 8, 2009. The survey included questions regarding individual perceptions, motivating factors, and behaviors associated with hand washing for the prevention of H1N1 influenza transmission.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Compared to one year prior, 30.3% of participants reported increasing their hand washing frequency. Female students were more likely to practice more frequent hand washing. Women also perceived the effectiveness of hand washing to be lower, and illness severity and personal susceptibility to H1N1 infection to be higher. Study participants who were female (OR: 1.79-3.90) who perceived of hand washing to be effective (OR: 1.34-12.15) and illness severity to be greater (OR: 1.00-3.12) washed their hands more frequently.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Korean students increased their frequency of hand hygiene practices during the pandemic, with significant gender differences existing in the attitudes and behaviors related to the use of hand hygiene as a means of disease prevention. Here, the factors that affected hand washing behavior were similar to those identified at the beginning of the H1N1 or SARS pandemics, suggesting that public education campaigns regarding hand hygiene are effective in altering individual hand hygiene habits during the peak periods of influenza transmission.</p