Treatment of the background error in the statistical analysis of Poisson processes

The formalism that allows to take into account the error sigma_b of the expected mean background b in the statistical analysis of a Poisson process with the frequentistic method is presented. It is shown that the error sigma_b cannot be neglected if it is not much smaller than sqrt(b). The resulting confidence belt is larger that the one for sigma_b=0, leading to larger confidence intervals for the mean mu of signal events.Comment: 15 pages including 2 figures, RevTeX. Final version published in Phys. Rev. D 59 (1999) 11300

Use of magnetic and olfactory cues for orientation by a fossorial rodent, Thomomys talpoides

Fossorial, or below ground, living provides shelter from the elements and some predators, but comes at a cost with respect to metabolic requirements of movement and reduced, or altered, sensory cues. I examined the ability of the North American pocket gopher, Thomomys talpoides, to use magnetoreception and olfaction in navigation and foraging. Magnetoreception was tested using three manipulative experiments: 1) field homing of displaced animals, 2) nest location in an 8-arm maze, and 3) movement through a complex labyrinth. Homing results, analyzed by V-test, indicated that the gophers displaced from their burrow systems relied on magnetic cues for homing orientation. Although Rayleigh analysis of the 8-arm maze tests showed limited significance, gophers tended to nest in the conditioned direction, and nesting direction shifted with an altered field. Repeated Measures ANOVA results of performance in time and number of wrong turns in the complex labyrinth showed no significant differences between conditioned trials (unaltered-field) and test (field rotated 90°) trials. Use of olfaction was tested in T-maze trials with soils containing carrot kairomone versus control soil. Binomial probability analysis revealed in all tests comparing carrot soil vs. control that gophers disproportionally selected the carrot soils. Overall my study suggests T talpoides can use both magnetic and olfactory cues while navigating, but the use of these cues is situation dependent. These results are similar to those found in other South American and Old World fossorial rodents --Document

Low-level seaweed supplementation improves iodine status in iodine-insufficient women

Iodine insufficiency is now a prominent issue in the UK and other European countries due to low intakes of dairy products and seafood (especially where iodine fortification is not in place). In the present study, we tested a commercially available encapsulated edible seaweed (Napiers Hebridean Seagreens® Ascophyllum nodosumspecies) for its acceptability to consumers and iodine bioavailability and investigated the impact of a 2-week daily seaweed supplementation on iodine concentrations and thyroid function. Healthy non-pregnant women of childbearing age, self-reporting low dairy product and seafood consumption, with no history of thyroid or gastrointestinal disease were recruited. Seaweed iodine (712 μg, in 1 g seaweed) was modestly bioavailable at 33 (interquartile range (IQR) 28–46) % of the ingested iodine dose compared with 59 (IQR 46–74) % of iodine from the KI supplement (n 22). After supplement ingestion (2 weeks, 0•5 g seaweed daily, <i>n</i> 42), urinary iodine excretion increased from 78 (IQR 39–114) to 140 (IQR 103–195) μg/l (<i>P</i>< 0•001). The concentrations of thyroid-stimulating hormone increased from 1•5 (IQR 1•2–2•2) to 2•1 (IQR 1•3–2•9) mIU/l (<i>P</i>< 0•001), with two participants having concentrations exceeding the normal range after supplement ingestion (but normal free thyroxine concentrations). There was no change in the concentrations of other thyroid hormones after supplement ingestion. The seaweed was palatable and acceptable to consumers as a whole food or as a food ingredient and effective as a source of iodine in an iodine-insufficient population. In conclusion, seaweed inclusion in staple foods would serve as an alternative to fortification of salt or other foods with KI

Spectrophotometry of nearby field galaxies: the data

We have obtained integrated and nuclear spectra, as well as U, B, R surface photometry, for a representative sample of 196 nearby galaxies. These galaxies span the entire Hubble sequence in morphological type, as well as a wide range of luminosities (M_B=-14 to -22). Here we present the spectrophotometry for these galaxies. The selection of the sample and the U, B, R surface photometry is described in a companion paper (Paper I). Our goals for the project include measuring the current star formation rates and metallicities of these galaxies, and elucidating their star formation histories, as a function of luminosity and morphology. We thereby extend the work of Kennicutt (1992a) to lower luminosity systems. We anticipate that our study will be useful as a benchmark for studies of galaxies at high redshift. We describe the observing, data reduction and calibration techniques, and demonstrate that our spectrophotometry agrees well with that of Kennicutt. The spectra span the range 3550--7250 A at a resolution (FWHM) of ~6 A, and have an overall relative spectrophotometric accuracy of +/- 6 per cent. We present a spectrophotometric atlas of integrated and nuclear rest-frame spectra, as well as tables of equivalent widths and synthetic colors. We study the correlations of galaxy properties determined from the spectra and images. Our findings include: (1) galaxies of a given morphological class display a wide range of continuum shapes and emission line strengths if a broad range of luminosities are considered, (2) emission line strengths tend to in- crease and continua tend to get bluer as the luminosity decreases, and (3) the scatter on the general correlation between nuclear and integrated H_alpha emission line strengths is large.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJS (scheduled for Vol.127, 2000 March); 63 pages, LateX, 9 figures and 6 tables included, a spectrophotometric atlas is provided as GIF images, fig 1 as a JPEG image, in a single tar-file; a full 600 dpi version is available at http://www.astro.rug.nl/~nfgs

A Photometric Technique to Search for Be Stars in Open Clusters

We describe a technique to identify Be stars in open clusters using Stromgren b, y, and narrow-band Halpha photometry. We first identify the B-type stars of the cluster using a theoretical isochrone fit to the (b-y, y) color-magnitude diagram. The strongest Be stars are easily identified in a (b-y, y-Halpha) color-color diagram, but those with weaker Halpha emission (classified as possible Be star detections) may be confused with evolved or foreground stars. Here we present such photometry plus Halpha spectroscopy of members of the cluster NGC 3766 to demonstrate the accuracy of our technique. Statistical results on the relative numbers of Be and B-type stars in additional clusters will be presented in a future paper.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, 1 table. Accepted by Ap

Including Systematic Uncertainties in Confidence Interval Construction for Poisson Statistics

One way to incorporate systematic uncertainties into the calculation of confidence intervals is by integrating over probability density functions parametrizing the uncertainties. In this note we present a development of this method which takes into account uncertainties in the prediction of background processes, uncertainties in the signal detection efficiency and background efficiency and allows for a correlation between the signal and background detection efficiencies. We implement this method with the Feldman & Cousins unified approach with and without conditioning. We present studies of coverage for the Feldman & Cousins and Neyman ordering schemes. In particular, we present two different types of coverage tests for the case where systematic uncertainties are included. To illustrate the method we show the relative effect of including systematic uncertainties the case of dark matter search as performed by modern neutrino tel escopes.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures, replaced to match published versio

High-probability minimax probability machines

In this paper we focus on constructing binary classifiers that are built on the premise of minimising an upper bound on their future misclassification rate. We pay particular attention to the approach taken by the minimax probability machine (Lanckriet et al. in J Mach Learn Res 3:555–582, 2003), which directly minimises an upper bound on the future misclassification rate in a worst-case setting: that is, under all possible choices of class-conditional distributions with a given mean and covariance matrix. The validity of these bounds rests on the assumption that the means and covariance matrices are known in advance, however this is not always the case in practice and their empirical counterparts have to be used instead. This can result in erroneous upper bounds on the future misclassification rate and lead to the formulation of sub-optimal predictors. In this paper we address this oversight and study the influence that uncertainty in the moments, the mean and covariance matrix, has on the construction of predictors under the minimax principle. By using high-probability upper bounds on the deviation between true moments and their empirical counterparts, we can re-formulate the minimax optimisation to incorporate this uncertainty and find the predictor that minimises the high-probability, worst-case misclassification rate. The moment uncertainty introduces a natural regularisation component into the optimisation, where each class is regularised in proportion to the degree of moment uncertainty. Experimental results would support the view that in the case of with limited data availability, the incorporation of moment uncertainty can lead to the formation of better predictors