DETERMINANTS OF PESTICIDE REGISTRATION FOR FOOD CROPS

An examination of intertemporal, crop-specific pesticide registration data to assess claims that EPA requirements discourage registration of safer pesticides, especially for minor crops. Results show that the likelihood of registration is increasing in crop market value and decreasing in pesticide safety, but these biases diminished between 1991 and 1995.Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Agricultural growth linkages in Sub-Saharan Africa:

How much extra net income growth can be had in rural areas of Africa by increasing the spending power of local households? The answer depends on how rural households spend increments to income, whether the items desired can be imported to the local area in response to increased demand, and, if not, whether increased demand will lead to new local production or simply to price rises. For every dollar in new farm income earned, at least one additional dollar could be realized from growth multipliers, according to Agricultural Growth Linkages in Sub-Saharan Africa.Income Rural areas Africa., Agricultural development Africa., Agricultural policy Economic aspects., Households Zimbabwe., Social accounting., Africa sub-Saharan,

Issues in Modeling Fish to 2020 within a Global Food Model

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the International Center for Living Aquatic Resources Management (ICLARM), in collaboration with the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), are presently attempting to model supply and demand for highly aggregated fish categories within the context of IFPRI's IMPACT global food model (Rosegrant et al. 1995). The analytical purpose is to quantify insights on: (a) the increasingly important role of aquaculture in world food and trade, (b) its interaction with rapidly growing livestock production and consumption in developing countries, (c) trade-offs (if any) between low cost food from fish and fishmeal, and (d) trade-offs between the production of high-value fishery exports and food. Important practical issues that arise from this are discussed here. They concern how to aggregate existing country data from hundreds of species into the maximum of 4 to 6 product categories for which it is feasible to specify supply, demand, and trade parameters for each of 36 countries or country groups. On the supply side, major technological differences need to be highlighted (such as aquaculture or capture), whereas on the demand side issues involve aggregating products with similar demand parameters, regardless of how produced. Resolution of the aggregation issues is different for groups of developing and developed countries, because of fundamental differences in the underlying issues. Model structure, interactions with non-fishery food products, available data, practical choices made, and preliminary magnitudes obtained are discussed.Keywords: Fish, 2020, Global Food Model, Data Aggregation, Methodolog

DETERMINANTS OF PESTICIDE REGISTRATION FOR FOOD CROPS

An examination of intertemporal, crop-specific pesticide registration data to assess claims that EPA requirements discourage registration of safer pesticides, especially for minor crops. Results show that the likelihood of registration is increasing in crop market value and decreasing in pesticide safety, but these biases diminished between 1991 and 1995

CHANGING FISH TRADE AND DEMAND PATTERNS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND THEIR SIGNIFICANCE FOR POLICY RESEARCH

Trends for major fisheries products are evaluated for the past two decades, using aggregate annual data. Major changes have been propelled by income growth, changes in preferences and health concerns about meat in developed countries, leading to increased consumption of high-valued fisheries items such as shell and filet fish. Developing countries, especially East Asia, are rapidly increasing consumption of lower valued fishery items, and fish-culture is becoming an increasingly important source of food and exports. Developed countries accounted for 85 percent of net world fish imports in 1994, mostly at the high end of the value spectrum, from about twenty countries. In the ten years preceding 1993, the net value of fisheries exports from developing countries went from less than a third of net developing country exports of sugar, beverage crops and tropical specialty products combined, to a level exceeding that total. While real fish prices have remained relatively stable since 1970, real beef prices have declined by 300 percent, suggesting that a rally in meat prices would further accentuate the shift to fish. Current evidence suggests a 15 percent relative strengthening of fish prices to beef through 2020

THE IMPACT OF LIVESTOCK AND FISHERIES ON FOOD AVAILABILITY AND DEMAND IN 2020

People in developed countries consume about 3 to 4 times as much meat and fish, and 5 to 6 times as much milk products per capita as in developing Asia and Africa. Yet, meat, milk, and fish consumption per capita has barely grown in the developed countries as a whole over the past 20 years. Growth in per capita consumption and production has occurred in developing regions such as developing Asia, where income has increased from a low level and urbanization is rapid. By 2020, according to projections by IFPRI's IMPACT model, the share of the developing countries in total world meat consumption will rise from 47 percent currently to 64 percent. The net impact on food access for the poor of the world will depend on their role as producers of meat, milk, and fish, their role as consumers, and their need for protein. The amount of cereals per capita consumed directly by rural people will decline as they diversify their diets into animal proteins, but feed use will increase greatly. Available evidence suggests that on balance poor consumers in developing countries will probably be better off

GLOBAL FOOD DEMAND AND THE CONTRIBUTION OF LIVESTOCK AS WE ENTER THE NEW MILLENNIUM

People in developed countries currently consume about 3 to 4 times as much meat and fish, and 5 to 6 times as much milk products per capita as in developing Asia and Africa. Meat, milk, and fish consumption per capita has barely grown in the developed countries as a whole over the past 20 years. Yet poor people everywhere clearly desire to eat more animal protein products as their incomes rise above poverty level and as they become urbanized. Growth in per capita consumption and production has in fact occurred in regions such as developing Asia, and most particularly China. Per capita consumption of animal proteins and use of cereals as feed in Asia have both grown in the 3 to 5 percent per annum range over the past 20 years. By 2020, according to IFPRI’s IMPACT model projections, the share of developing countries in total world meat consumption will expand from 47 percent currently to 63 percent. Of the global total projected increase in meat consumption, 40 percent is from pork, 30 percent is from poultry and 24 percent is from beef. The latter helps mitigate the otherwise much larger decline in real beef prices expected through 2020. Projected annual growth in meat consumption in China of 3.2 percent per annum through 2020--up from 8.3 percent per annum from the early 1980's to the early 1990's, drives these results. A rapidly expanding supply of feedgrains will be essential to achieving the desire production increases for livestock products without undue upwards pressure on grain prices, especially in view of the role of monogastrics and the relative increase in industrial production in developing countries. IMPACT projections under various technical and economic assumptions suggest that there is enough production supply response in world systems to accomplish these production increases smoothly. Sensitivity analysis of the impact of restrictions on China’s ability to produce more feedgrains illustrates that in a system of linked global markets for cereals and livestock products, such restrictions are not effective at lowering Chinese livestock consumption, which is driven by global trade in manufactures, although they do lower Chinese livestock production. The resulting imbalance raises world feed costs by one-third in 2020 over anticipated levels, encourages increased livestock exports from Latin America, discourages livestock exports from the U.S., and reduces meat and cereals imports and consumption in the poorer countries of Africa and Asia

Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution

The combined per capita consumption of meat, eggs, and milk in developing countries grew by about 50 per cent from the early 1970s to the early 1990s. As incomes rise and cities swell, people in the developing world are diversifying their diets to include a variety of meats, eggs, and dairy products. This trend toward diversified eating habits is likely to continue for some time to come and it has led to considerable controversy about the risks and opportunities involved. Some observers fear that greatly increased demand for feed grains will raise the price of cereals to the poor. Others are concerned that higher concentration of livestock production near cities adds to pollution. Still others worry about the public health effects of increased consumption of animal fats and the rapidly increasing incidence of diseases passing from animals to humans. On the other hand, many analysts point to the nutritional benefits of increased consumption of animal products for populations that are still largely deficient in intake of protein and micro nutrients. Furthermore, livestock traditionally have been an important source of income for the rural poor in developing countries. Finally, increased demand for livestock products may provide an engine for sustainable intensification of small holder food and feed production systems. A team of researchers from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) collaborated to produce this comprehensive and even-handed attempt at defining the nature, extent, scope, and implications of what they term the “Livestock Revolution” in developing countries. Looking forward to 2020, they argue convincingly that the structural shifts in world agriculture being brought about by shifts in developing country demand for foods of animal origin will continue and that increasingly global markets have the ability to supply both cereal and animal products in desired quantities without undue price rises. They emphasize, however, that policy decisions taken for the livestock sector of developing countries will determine whether the Livestock Revolution helps or harms the world’s poor and malnourished. The report emphasizes the importance of continued investment in both research on and development of animal and feed grain production and processing, and the need for policy action to help small, poor livestock producers become better integrated with commercial livestock marketing and processing. It details a host of requirements in the area of technology development for production and processing of livestock products, potential benefits from new technologies, and critical policy issues for environmental conservation and protection of public health