Modelling the European Union Sustainability Transition: A Soft-Linking Approach

none3noThe European Green Deal (EGD) is the most ambitious decarbonisation strategy currently envisaged, with a complex mix of different instruments aiming at improving the sustainability of the development patterns of the European Union in the next 30 years. The intrinsic complexity brings key open questions on the cost and effectiveness of the strategy. In this paper we propose a novel methodological approach to soft-linking two modelling tools, a systems thinking (ST) and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, in order to provide a broader ex-ante policy evaluation process. We use ST to highlight the main economic feedback loops the EGD strategy might trigger. We then quantify these loops with a scenario analysis developed in a dynamic CGE framework. Our main finding is that such a soft-linking approach allows discovery of multiple channels and spillover effects across policy instruments that might help improve the policy mix design. Specifically, positive spillovers arise from the adoption of a revenue recycling mechanism that ensures strong support for the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies. Such spillover effects benefit not only the European Union (EU) market but also non-EU countries via trade-based technology transfer, with a net positive effect in terms of global emissions reduction.openBassi, Andrea M.; Costantini, Valeria; Paglialunga, ElenaBassi, Andrea M.; Costantini, Valeria; Paglialunga, Elen

Network-driven positive externalities in clean energy technology production: the case of energy efficiency in the EU residential sector

In this paper, we propose a model of national innovation production that formalizes the role of trade partnerships as a channel of knowledge spillovers across countries. The model is used to investigate the energy efficiency technological domain in the European Union (EU) using a panel database covering 19 EU countries for the time span 1990-2015. The model is estimated by using a novel empirical strategy which allows to assess the knowledge spillover effects benefiting a country depending on its relative position in the trade network, and correct for common endogeneity concerns. We show that being central in the trade network is a significant determinant of a country's innovative performance, and that learning-by-exporting mechanisms are responsible for increased innovation performances. We further reveal that neglecting network effects may significantly reduce our understanding of domestic innovation patterns. Finally, we find that the benefits obtained from knowledge diffusion varies with the domestic absorptive capacity and policy mix composition. Our main implication is that policy design informed by network-based case studies could help maximizing the exploitation of positive knowledge spillovers

Local sources of vulnerability to climate change and armed conflicts in East Africa

While socioeconomic and institutional factors are crucial in explaining the onset and evolution of conflicts, recent research suggests that climate change is a further indirect driver acting as a “threat multiplier”. This paper focuses on the concept of vulnerability to both climate change and conflicts to explain why some locations are more likely to engage in armed conflicts than others in the presence of a similar level of exposure to climatic changes. In particular, by means of a Spatial Autoregressive Model, we identify a set of local-specific vulnerability factors that increase conflict risk in East Africa. We employ a georeferenced database with a resolution of 25 × 25 km, covering the period 1997–2016. Results from our analysis provide some interesting insights: first, climate change does not increase conflict risk per se, but only in the presence of pre-existing vulnerabilities. Second, resource access and socioeconomic factors play a key role in driving the climate-conflict nexus especially in urban areas. In particular, vulnerability is increased whenever power is not distributed in such a way as to ensure an equitable distribution of resources. Overall, our findings suggest that, by addressing vulnerability factors that prevent adaptive capacity and an equitable distribution of resources, societies may benefit in terms of both diminished conflict risk and alleviation of climate change impacts

Overweight and obese patients with nickel allergy have a worse metabolic profile compared to weight matched non-allergic individuals

A lack of balance between energy intake and expenditure due to overeating or reduced physical activity does not seem to explain entirely the obesity epidemic we are facing, and further factors are therefore being evaluated. Nickel (Ni) is a ubiquitous heavy metal implied in several health conditions. Regarding this, the European Food Safety Authority has recently released an alert on the possible deleterious effects of dietary Ni on human health given the current levels of Ni dietary intake in some countries. Pre-clinical studies have also suggested its role as an endocrine disruptor and have linked its exposure to energy metabolism and glucose homeostasis dysregulation. Ni allergy is common in the general population, but preliminary data suggest it being even more widespread among overweight patients. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study has been to evaluate the presence of Ni allergy and its association with the metabolic and endocrine profile in overweight and obese individuals. METHODS: We have evaluated 1128 consecutive overweight and obese outpatients. 784 were suspected of being allergic to Ni and 666 were assessed for it. Presence of Ni allergy and correlation with body mass index (BMI), body composition, metabolic parameters and hormonal levels were evaluated. RESULTS: We report that Ni allergy is more frequent in presence of weight excess and is associated with worse metabolic parameters and impaired Growth Hormone secretion. CONCLUSIONS: We confirm that Ni allergy is more common in obese patients, and we report for the first time its association with worse metabolic parameters and impaired function of the GH-IGF1 axis in human subjects

A multifaceted approach to reveal the very-fine root's response of Fagus sylvatica seedlings to different drought intensities

How temperate trees respond to drier summers strongly depends on the drought susceptibility and the starch reserve of the very-fine roots (<0.5 mm in diameter). We performed morphological, physiological, chemical, and proteomic analyses on very-fine roots of Fagus sylvatica seedlings grown under moderate- and severe drought conditions. Moreover, to reveal the role of the starch reserves, a girdling approach was adopted to interrupt the flux of photosynthates toward the downstream sinks. Results show a seasonal sigmoidal growth pattern without evident mortality under moderate drought. After the severe-drought period, intact plants showed lower starch concentration and higher growth than those subjected to moderate drought, highlighting that very-fine roots rely on their starch reserves to resume growth. This behaviour caused them to die with the onset of autumn, which was not observed under moderate drought. These findings indicated that extreme dry soil conditions are needed for significant root death in beech seedlings and that mortality mechanisms are defined within individual compartments. The girdling treatment showed that the physiological responses of very-fine roots to severe drought stress are critically related to the altered load or the reduced transport velocity of the phloem and that the changes in starch allocation critically alter the distribution of biomass. Proteomic evidence revealed that the phloem flux-dependent response was characterized by the decrease of carbon enzymes and the establishment of mechanisms to avoid the reduction of the osmotic potential. The response independent from the aboveground mainly involved the alteration of primary metabolic processes and cell wall-related enzymes

Controllo delle emissioni climalteranti e catene globali del valore

L’entrata in vigore dell’Accordo di Parigi il 4 novembre del 2016 ha sancito per i paesi firmatari un radicale cambio di passo nel-la progettazione delle politiche di contenimento e riduzione delle emissioni di gas serra responsabili del cambiamento climatico. L’Unione europea (UE), in vista della prossima scadenza al 2023 per la presentazione di una nuova strategia di mitigazione delle emissioni climalteranti, ha approvato l’11 dicembre del 2019 il piano di transizione energetica sostenibile noto come European Green Deal, con l’obiettivo ultimo di arrivare al 2050 con una completa decarbonizzazione dell’economia europea. Il piano di mitigazione delle emissioni dell’UE, sebbene molto ambizioso, rimane un pacchetto di interventi su scala unilaterale, che consente di ridurre i gas serra su scala globale solo del 3,4%. I molteplici legami economici e commerciali, che a livello mondiale sono rappresentati dalla stretta integrazione dei processi produttivi dei diversi paesi nelle catene globali del valore, impediscono all’azione unilaterale dell’UE di trasformarsi in un’azione efficace per ridurre le emissioni globali: il carbon leakage riduce l’impatto della politica dell’UE di quasi un terzo

Adherence to and effectiveness of lenalidomide after 1 year of treatment in a real world setting

Background: In combination with dexamethasone, lenalidomide is prescribed in the oral treatment of Multiple Myeloma for patients who have received at least one previous therapy. Objective: The objective of this study is to evaluate medication adherence to lenalidomide of Multiple Myeloma patients, as well as Progression Free Survival and Overall Survival one year from the beginning of the treatment. Setting: The study was carried out in Pescara Hospital, in Italy. All Multiple Myeloma patients who began lenalidomide therapy between January 1, 2012 and June 30, 2016 were included in our study. Methods: Adherence to treatment was calculated by using the ratio between the Received Daily Dose and the Prescribed Daily Dose. Effectiveness in real world has been evaluated as Progression Free Survival and Overall Survival one year from the beginning of the treatment.Main outcomes measure: We assessed medication adherence and effectiveness of lenalidomide in the treatment of Multiple Myeloma. Results: Adherence to the overall mean treatment was 0.73 ± 0.15, relative to 81 patients evaluated in our study. 32% of patients achieved an adherence equal to or greater than 80%. Real-life effectiveness in terms of Progression Free Survival and Overall Survival showed values of ​​53.75% and 88%, respectively, one year from the beginning of treatment. Conclusion: The analysis of adherence in Multiple Myeloma patients treated with lenalidomide one year from the beginning of therapy reveal a concerning lack of adherence. Moreover, the lack of correlation of the levels of adherence with patient-related variables shows that, in the case of Multiple Myeloma, adherence is not related to personal, social and environmental characteristics that may determine each patient's correct treatment implementation, but is directly influenced by disease evolution