28 research outputs found
Quality of life of caregivers for patients of cerebrovascular accidents: association of (socio-demographic) characteristics and burden
Probabilistic fire spread forecast as a management tool in an operational setting
Background: An approach to predict fire growth in an operational setting, with the
potential to be used as a decision-support tool for fire management, is described and
evaluated. The operational use of fire behaviour models has mostly followed a deterministic
approach, however, the uncertainty associated with model predictions needs
to be quantified and included in wildfire planning and decision-making process during
fire suppression activities. We use FARSITE to simulate the growth of a large wildfire.
Probabilistic simulations of fire spread are performed, accounting for the uncertainty
of some model inputs and parameters. Deterministic simulations were performed for
comparison. We also assess the degree to which fire spread modelling and satellite
active fire data can be combined, to forecast fire spread during large wildfires events.
Results: Uncertainty was propagated through the FARSITE fire spread modelling system
by randomly defining 100 different combinations of the independent input variables
and parameters, and running the correspondent fire spread simulations in order
to produce fire spread probability maps. Simulations were initialized with the reported
ignition location and with satellite active fires. The probabilistic fire spread predictions
show great potential to be used as a fire management tool in an operational setting,
providing valuable information regarding the spatial–temporal distribution of burn
probabilities. The advantage of probabilistic over deterministic simulations is clear
when both are compared. Re-initializing simulations with satellite active fires did not
improve simulations as expected.
Conclusion: This information can be useful to anticipate the growth of wildfires
through the landscape with an associated probability of occurrence. The additional
information regarding when, where and with what probability the fire might be in the
next few hours can ultimately help minimize the negative environmental, social and
economic impacts of these firesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio
Genomic analysis of two phlebotomine sand fly vectors of Leishmania from the New and Old World.
Phlebotomine sand flies are of global significance as important vectors of human disease, transmitting bacterial, viral, and protozoan pathogens, including the kinetoplastid parasites of the genus Leishmania, the causative agents of devastating diseases collectively termed leishmaniasis. More than 40 pathogenic Leishmania species are transmitted to humans by approximately 35 sand fly species in 98 countries with hundreds of millions of people at risk around the world. No approved efficacious vaccine exists for leishmaniasis and available therapeutic drugs are either toxic and/or expensive, or the parasites are becoming resistant to the more recently developed drugs. Therefore, sand fly and/or reservoir control are currently the most effective strategies to break transmission. To better understand the biology of sand flies, including the mechanisms involved in their vectorial capacity, insecticide resistance, and population structures we sequenced the genomes of two geographically widespread and important sand fly vector species: Phlebotomus papatasi, a vector of Leishmania parasites that cause cutaneous leishmaniasis, (distributed in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa) and Lutzomyia longipalpis, a vector of Leishmania parasites that cause visceral leishmaniasis (distributed across Central and South America). We categorized and curated genes involved in processes important to their roles as disease vectors, including chemosensation, blood feeding, circadian rhythm, immunity, and detoxification, as well as mobile genetic elements. We also defined gene orthology and observed micro-synteny among the genomes. Finally, we present the genetic diversity and population structure of these species in their respective geographical areas. These genomes will be a foundation on which to base future efforts to prevent vector-borne transmission of Leishmania parasites