Probabilistic fire spread forecast as a management tool in an operational setting

Background: An approach to predict fire growth in an operational setting, with the potential to be used as a decision-support tool for fire management, is described and evaluated. The operational use of fire behaviour models has mostly followed a deterministic approach, however, the uncertainty associated with model predictions needs to be quantified and included in wildfire planning and decision-making process during fire suppression activities. We use FARSITE to simulate the growth of a large wildfire. Probabilistic simulations of fire spread are performed, accounting for the uncertainty of some model inputs and parameters. Deterministic simulations were performed for comparison. We also assess the degree to which fire spread modelling and satellite active fire data can be combined, to forecast fire spread during large wildfires events. Results: Uncertainty was propagated through the FARSITE fire spread modelling system by randomly defining 100 different combinations of the independent input variables and parameters, and running the correspondent fire spread simulations in order to produce fire spread probability maps. Simulations were initialized with the reported ignition location and with satellite active fires. The probabilistic fire spread predictions show great potential to be used as a fire management tool in an operational setting, providing valuable information regarding the spatial–temporal distribution of burn probabilities. The advantage of probabilistic over deterministic simulations is clear when both are compared. Re-initializing simulations with satellite active fires did not improve simulations as expected. Conclusion: This information can be useful to anticipate the growth of wildfires through the landscape with an associated probability of occurrence. The additional information regarding when, where and with what probability the fire might be in the next few hours can ultimately help minimize the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of these firesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Genomic analysis of two phlebotomine sand fly vectors of Leishmania from the New and Old World.

Phlebotomine sand flies are of global significance as important vectors of human disease, transmitting bacterial, viral, and protozoan pathogens, including the kinetoplastid parasites of the genus Leishmania, the causative agents of devastating diseases collectively termed leishmaniasis. More than 40 pathogenic Leishmania species are transmitted to humans by approximately 35 sand fly species in 98 countries with hundreds of millions of people at risk around the world. No approved efficacious vaccine exists for leishmaniasis and available therapeutic drugs are either toxic and/or expensive, or the parasites are becoming resistant to the more recently developed drugs. Therefore, sand fly and/or reservoir control are currently the most effective strategies to break transmission. To better understand the biology of sand flies, including the mechanisms involved in their vectorial capacity, insecticide resistance, and population structures we sequenced the genomes of two geographically widespread and important sand fly vector species: Phlebotomus papatasi, a vector of Leishmania parasites that cause cutaneous leishmaniasis, (distributed in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa) and Lutzomyia longipalpis, a vector of Leishmania parasites that cause visceral leishmaniasis (distributed across Central and South America). We categorized and curated genes involved in processes important to their roles as disease vectors, including chemosensation, blood feeding, circadian rhythm, immunity, and detoxification, as well as mobile genetic elements. We also defined gene orthology and observed micro-synteny among the genomes. Finally, we present the genetic diversity and population structure of these species in their respective geographical areas. These genomes will be a foundation on which to base future efforts to prevent vector-borne transmission of Leishmania parasites