Most recommended medical interventions reach P<0.005 for their primary outcomes in meta-analyses.

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in International Journal of Epidemiology, following peer review. The version of record: Despina Koletsi, Marco Solmi, Nikolaos Pandis, Padhraig S Fleming, Christoph U Correll, John P A Ioannidis, Most recommended medical interventions reach P<0.005 for their primary outcomes in meta-analyses, International Journal of Epidemiology, dyz241, https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyz241 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyz241.BACKGROUND: It has been proposed that the threshold of statistical significance should shift from P-value < 0.05 to P-value < 0.005, but there is concern that this move may dismiss effective, useful interventions. We aimed to assess how often medical interventions are recommended although their evidence in meta-analyses of randomized trials lies between P-value = 0.05 and P-value = 0.005. METHODS: We included Cochrane systematic reviews (SRs) published from 1 January 2013 to 30 June 2014 that had at least one meta-analysis with GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) assessment and at least one primary outcome having favourable results for efficacy at P-value < 0.05. Only comparisons of randomized trials between active versus no treatment/placebo were included. We then assessed the respective UpToDate recommendations for clinical practice from 22 May 2018 to 5 October 2018 and recorded how many treatments were recommended and what were the P-values in their meta-analysis evidence. The primary analysis was based on the first-listed outcomes. RESULTS: Of 608 screened SRs with GRADE assessment, 113 SRs were eligible, including 143 comparisons of which 128 comparisons had first-listed primary outcomes with UpToDate coverage. Altogether, 60% (58/97) of interventions with P-values < 0.005 for their evidence were recommended versus 32% (10/31) of those with P-value 0.005-0.05. Therefore, most (58/68, 85.2%) of the recommended interventions had P-values < 0.005 for the first-listed primary outcome. Of the 10 exceptions, 4 had other primary outcomes with P-values < 0.005 and another 4 had additional extensive evidence for similar indications that would allow extrapolation for practice recommendations. CONCLUSIONS: Few interventions are recommended without their evidence from meta-analyses of randomized trials reaching P-value < 0.005

Pipamperone Population Pharmacokinetics Related to Effectiveness and Side Effects in Children and Adolescents

Background: Pipamperone is a frequently prescribed antipsychotic in children and adolescents in the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany. However, pediatric pharmacokinetics and the relationship with side effects and efficacy are unknown. Currently, divergent pediatric dosing recommendations exist. Objectives: The objective of this study was to describe the population pharmacokinetics of pipamperone in children and adolescents; to correlate measured and predicted pipamperone trough concentrations and predicted 24-h area under the curves with effectiveness, extrapyramidal symptoms, and sedation; and to propose dose recommendations based on simulations. Methods: Pipamperone concentrations were collected from Dutch pediatric patients in a prospective naturalistic trial (n = 8), and German pediatric patients in a therapeutic drug monitoring service (n = 22). A total of 70 pipamperone concentrations were used to develop a population pharmacokinetic model with non-linear mixed-effects modeling (NONMEM®). Additionally, an additional random sample of 21 German patients with 33 pipamperone concentrations from the same therapeutic drug monitoring service was used for external validation. Pharmacokinetic parameters were related to clinical improvement, sedation, and extrapyramidal symptoms. Simulations were performed to determine optimal dosages. Results: In a one-compartment model, the apparent volume of distribution was 416 L/70 kg and the apparent clearance was 22.1 L/h/70 kg. Allometric scaling was used to correct for differences in bodyweight. The model was successfully externally validated. The median [25th–75th percentile] measured pipamperone trough concentrations were numerically higher in responders (98.0 µg/L [56.0–180.5 µg/L]) than in non-responders (58.0 µg/L [14.9–105.5 µg/L]), although non-significant (p = 0.14). A twice-daily 0.6-mg/kg dosage was better than a fixed dosage to attain the concentration range observed in responders. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that pipamperone therapeutic reference ranges may be lower for children with behavioral problems than recommended for adults with psychotic symptoms (100–400 µg/L). When dosing pipamperone in children and adolescents, bodyweight should be taken into account

Age at onset of mental disorders worldwide: large-scale meta-analysis of 192 epidemiological studies

Promotion of good mental health, prevention, and early intervention before/at the onset of mental disorders improve outcomes. However, the range and peak ages at onset for mental disorders are not fully established. To provide robust, global epidemiological estimates of age at onset for mental disorders, we conducted a PRISMA/MOOSE-compliant systematic review with meta-analysis of birth cohort/cross-sectional/cohort studies, representative of the general population, reporting age at onset for any ICD/DSM-mental disorders, identified in PubMed/Web of Science (up to 16/05/2020) (PROSPERO:CRD42019143015). Co-primary outcomes were the proportion of individuals with onset of mental disorders before age 14, 18, 25, and peak age at onset, for any mental disorder and across International Classification of Diseases 11 diagnostic blocks. Median age at onset of specific disorders was additionally investigated. Across 192 studies (n = 708,561) included, the proportion of individuals with onset of any mental disorders before the ages of 14, 18, 25 were 34.6%, 48.4%, 62.5%, and peak age was 14.5 years (k = 14, median = 18, interquartile range (IQR) = 11–34). For diagnostic blocks, the proportion of individuals with onset of disorder before the age of 14, 18, 25 and peak age were as follows: neurodevelopmental disorders: 61.5%, 83.2%, 95.8%, 5.5 years (k = 21, median=12, IQR = 7–16), anxiety/fear-related disorders: 38.1%, 51.8%, 73.3%, 5.5 years (k = 73, median = 17, IQR = 9–25), obsessive-compulsive/related disorders: 24.6%, 45.1%, 64.0%, 14.5 years (k = 20, median = 19, IQR = 14–29), feeding/eating disorders/problems: 15.8%, 48.1%, 82.4%, 15.5 years (k = 11, median = 18, IQR = 15–23), conditions specifically associated with stress disorders: 16.9%, 27.6%, 43.1%, 15.5 years (k = 16, median = 30, IQR = 17–48), substance use disorders/addictive behaviours: 2.9%, 15.2%, 48.8%, 19.5 years (k = 58, median = 25, IQR = 20–41), schizophrenia-spectrum disorders/primary psychotic states: 3%, 12.3%, 47.8%, 20.5 years (k = 36, median = 25, IQR = 20–34), personality disorders/related traits: 1.9%, 9.6%, 47.7%, 20.5 years (k = 6, median = 25, IQR = 20–33), and mood disorders: 2.5%, 11.5%, 34.5%, 20.5 years (k = 79, median = 31, IQR = 21–46). No significant difference emerged by sex, or definition of age of onset. Median age at onset for specific mental disorders mapped on a time continuum, from phobias/separation anxiety/autism spectrum disorder/attention deficit hyperactivity disorder/social anxiety (8-13 years) to anorexia nervosa/bulimia nervosa/obsessive-compulsive/binge eating/cannabis use disorders (17-22 years), followed by schizophrenia, personality, panic and alcohol use disorders (25-27 years), and finally post-traumatic/depressive/generalized anxiety/bipolar/acute and transient psychotic disorders (30-35 years), with overlap among groups and no significant clustering. These results inform the timing of good mental health promotion/preventive/early intervention, updating the current mental health system structured around a child/adult service schism at age 18

Mood instability, mental illness and suicidal ideas : results from a household survey

Purpose: There is weak and inconsistent evidence that mood instability (MI) is associated with depression, post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and suicidality although the basis of this is unclear. Our objectives were first to test whether there is an association between depression and PTSD, and MI and secondly whether MI exerts an independent effect on suicidal thinking over and above that explained by common mental disorders. Methods: We used data from the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2007 (N = 7,131). Chi-square tests were used to examine associations between depression and PTSD, and MI, followed by regression modelling to examine associations between MI and depression, and with PTSD. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to assess the independent effect of MI on suicidal thinking, after adjustment for demographic factors and the effects of common mental disorder diagnoses. Results: There are high rates of MI in depression and PTSD and the presence of MI increases the odds of depression by 10.66 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 7.51–15.13] and PTSD by 8.69 (95 % CI 5.90–12.79), respectively, after adjusting for other factors. Mood instability independently explained suicidal thinking, multiplying the odds by nearly five (odds ratio 4.82; 95 % CI 3.39–6.85), and was individually by some way the most important single factor in explaining suicidal thoughts. Conclusions: MI is strongly associated with depression and PTSD. In people with common mental disorders MI is clinically significant as it acts as an additional factor exacerbating the risk of suicidal thinking. It is important to enquire about MI as part of clinical assessment and treatment studies are required

Cardiometabolic risk and the MTHFR C677T variant in children treated with second-generation antipsychotics

Second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs) are increasingly being used to treat children with a variety of psychiatric illnesses. Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, is a side-effect of SGA-treatment. We conducted a cross-sectional study and assessed the association of the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T variant with features of MetS in SGA-treated (n=105) and SGA–naïve (n=112) children. We targeted the MTHFR C677T variant, because it is associated with risk for cardiovascular disease, and features of MetS in adults without psychiatric illness. MetS in children is based on the presence of any three of the following: waist circumference ⩾90th percentile for age and sex; plasma triglyceride ⩾1.24 mmol l−1; plasma high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol ⩽1.03 mmol l−1; systolic or diastolic blood pressure ⩾90th percentile for age, sex, and height; and fasting glucose ⩾5.6 mmol l−1. We found that 15% of SGA-treated children had MetS compared with 2% of SGA-naïve children (OR 8.113, P<0.05). No effect of the MTHFR C677T variant on psychiatric diagnosis was observed. The MTHFR 677T allele was associated (P<0.05) with MetS (OR 5.75, 95% CI= 1.18–28.12) in SGA-treated children. Models adjusted for duration of SGA treatment, ethnicity, sex, age and use of other medications revealed a positive relationship between the MTHFR 677T allele and diastolic blood pressure Z-scores (P=0.001) and fasting plasma glucose (P<0.05) in SGA-treated children. These findings illustrate the high prevalence of MetS in SGA-treated children and suggest metabolic alterations associated with the MTHFR C677T variant may have a role in the development of MetS features in SGA-treated children

Cost of antipsychotic polypharmacy in the treatment of schizophrenia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study compared the costs of antipsychotic polypharmacy for patients who initiated on 1 of the 3 most commonly prescribed atypical antipsychotics – olanzapine, quetiapine, or risperidone.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were drawn from a large, prospective, naturalistic, multi-site, nonrandomized study of treatment for schizophrenia in the United States conducted between July 1997 and September 2003. Participants who were initiated on olanzapine (N = 405), quetiapine (N = 115), or risperidone (N = 276) were followed for 1 year post initiation and compared on: (a) average daily cost of the index antipsychotic while on the index antipsychotic, (b) average daily cost of the coprescribed antipsychotics while on the index antipsychotic, (c) average daily cost of the index antipsychotic and the coprescribed antipsychotics while on the index antipsychotic, (d) total annual cost of antipsychotic medications prescribed in the year following initiation on the index antipsychotic, using propensity score-adjusted bootstrap resampling method. Average daily antipsychotic costs and total annual antipsychotic costs were also estimated using more recent (2004) antipsychotic drug prices.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During the 1 year following initiation on the index antipsychotic, the total average daily cost of the index antipsychotic was higher for quetiapine ($15.33) than olanzapine ($13.90, p < .05) and risperidone ($11.04, p < .01), although the average daily cost of the index antipsychotic was higher for olanzapine ($10.08) than risperidone ($6.74, p < .01) or quetiapine ($6.63, p < .01). Lower total average daily costs were observed in risperidone than olanzapine or quetiapine. Significantly lower average daily cost of concomitant antipsychotic medications for olanzapine ($3.82) compared to quetiapine ($8.70, p < .01) or risperidone-initiated patients ($4.30, p < .01) contributed to the lower average daily cost of all antipsychotic medication for olanzapine-initiated patients. Each dollar spent on the index antipsychotic was accompanied by spending an additional$1.31 on concomitant antipsychotics for quetiapine compared to $0.64 for risperidone and$0.38 for olanzapine-initiated patients. A separate intent-to-treat analysis of the total annual antipsychotic cost found a significantly higher total annual antipsychotic cost for quetiapine-initiated patients ($5320) compared to olanzapine ($4536, p < .01) or risperidone ($3813, p < .01).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Prevalent antipsychotic polypharmacy adds substantial cost to the treatment of schizophrenia. Comparison of medication costs need to address the costs of all antipsychotics. A better understanding of concomitant antipsychotic costs provides a more accurate portrayal of antipsychotic medication costs in the treatment of schizophrenia.</p