8 research outputs found
The total marital fertility rate and its extensions
What we will call the age-based TMFR is computed conventionally by adding up age-specific marital fertility rates in the hope of estimating the number of children ever born to a woman who is married throughout her childbearing years. Demographers have long been strongly skeptical about this quantity because it normally indicates implausibly many children. Our analysis of data from the Romanian GGS confirms this finding, and we propose an alternative duration-based TMFR computed in the spirit of parity-progression ratios. At the same time, we extend the method to cover any type of living arrangement (cohabitation, marriage, non-partnered arrangement, and so on). Because each resulting total union-type fertility rate (TUFR) explicitly accounts for the living arrangement, it improves on the conventional total fertility rate (TFR), which does not. We embed the investigation in an event-history analysis with fixed and time-varying control covariates and find patterns of relative risks for such variables that reveal interesting features of childbearing behavior in the Romanian data, which we use to illustrate the method. In most cases, these patterns are quite robust against model re-specification, including the shift from the age-based to the duration-based approach. Since, the number of female respondents is âonlyâ about 6,000 (minus records that cannot be used for the current purpose) in a normal single-round GGS, there is considerable inherent random variation in the data set, but we show that simple few-term moving average graduation suffices to overcome this problem.Le taux de fĂ©conditĂ© totale en mariage (TFTM) selon lâĂąge est calculĂ© par convention en sommant les taux de fĂ©conditĂ© par Ăąge dans le mariage en vue dâobtenir une estimation du nombre total dâenfants nĂ©s dâune femme qui aurait Ă©tĂ© mariĂ©e tout au long de sa vie reproductive. Depuis longtemps les dĂ©mographes considĂšrent cette mesure avec scepticisme car elle aboutit souvent Ă un nombre total dâenfants beaucoup trop Ă©levĂ©. Notre analyse des donnĂ©es du EGG roumain confirme cette constatation et nous proposons dĂšs lors, comme alternative, un TFTM selon la durĂ©e, dans lâesprit des probabilitĂ©s dâagrandissement des familles. Par ailleurs, nous Ă©tendons la mĂ©thode Ă tous types de situation de couple (cohabitation, mariage, sans partenaire, etc.). Comme le taux de fĂ©conditĂ© totale selon le type dâunion (TFTU) tient compte explicitement de la situation de couple, il doit ĂȘtre prĂ©fĂ©rĂ© au TFTM qui ne tient pas compte de ce critĂšre. Notre Ă©tude est conduite dans le cadre dâune analyse biographique tenant compte de covariables fixes ou dĂ©pendantes du temps. Les rĂ©sultats de lâanalyse nous permettent de dĂ©couvrir des caractĂ©ristiques intĂ©ressantes de la fĂ©conditĂ© roumaine, que nous utilisons pour illustrer la mĂ©thode. Dans la plupart des cas, ces caractĂ©ristiques sont robustes face Ă une re-spĂ©cification du modĂšle, notamment le passage de lâapproche basĂ©e sur lâĂąge Ă lâapproche tenant compte de la durĂ©e. Comme le nombre de rĂ©pondants Ă lâenquĂȘte EGG Ă un passage nâest âqueâ de lâordre de 6000 (moins les cas qui nâont pas pu ĂȘtre utilisĂ©s pour le prĂ©sent travail), il existe une fluctuation alĂ©atoire importante dans les donnĂ©es. Nous montrons toutefois quâun lissage par moyenne mobile Ă quelques termes seulement nous permet de surmonter cette difficultĂ©
Traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Four Selected Countries in Central and Eastern Europe: Union Formation as a Demographic Manifestation
Using data from the first round of the national Gender and Generations Surveys of Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria, and from a similar survey of Hungary, which were all collected in recent years, we study rates of entry into marital and non-marital unions. We have used elements from the narrative of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) as a vehicle to give our analysis of the data from the four countries some coherence, and find what can be traces of the SDT in these countries. The details vary by country; in particular, latter-day developments in union formation patterns did not start at the same time in all the countries, but in our assessment it began everywhere before communism fell, that is, before the societal transition to a market economy got underway in 1990
Le taux de fécondité totale dans le mariage et ses extensions
What we will call the age-based TMFR is computed conventionally by adding up age-specific marital fertility rates in the hope of estimating the number of children ever born to a woman who is married throughout her childbearing years. Demographers have long been strongly skeptical about this quantity because it normally indicates implausibly many children. Our analysis of data from the Romanian GGS confirms this finding, and we propose an alternative duration-based TMFR computed in the spirit of parity-progression ratios. At the same time, we extend the method to cover any type of living arrangement (cohabitation, marriage, non-partnered arrangement, and so on). Because each resulting total union-type fertility rate (TUFR) explicitly accounts for the living arrangement, it improves on the conventional total fertility rate (TFR), which does not. We embed the investigation in an event-history analysis with fixed and time-varying control covariates and find patterns of relative risks for such variables that reveal interesting features of childbearing behavior in the Romanian data, which we use to illustrate the method. In most cases, these patterns are quite robust against model re-specification, including the shift from the age-based to the duration-based approach. Since, the number of female respondents is âonlyâ about 6,000 (minus records that cannot be used for the current purpose) in a normal single-round GGS, there is considerable inherent random variation in the data set, but we show that simple few-term moving average graduation suffices to overcome this problem.Le taux de fĂ©conditĂ© totale en mariage (TFTM) selon lâĂąge est calculĂ© par convention en sommant les taux de fĂ©conditĂ© par Ăąge dans le mariage en vue dâobtenir une estimation du nombre total dâenfants nĂ©s dâune femme qui aurait Ă©tĂ© mariĂ©e tout au long de sa vie reproductive. Depuis longtemps les dĂ©mographes considĂšrent cette mesure avec scepticisme car elle aboutit souvent Ă un nombre total dâenfants beaucoup trop Ă©levĂ©. Notre analyse des donnĂ©es du EGG roumain confirme cette constatation et nous proposons dĂšs lors, comme alternative, un TFTM selon la durĂ©e, dans lâesprit des probabilitĂ©s dâagrandissement des familles. Par ailleurs, nous Ă©tendons la mĂ©thode Ă tous types de situation de couple (cohabitation, mariage, sans partenaire, etc.). Comme le taux de fĂ©conditĂ© totale selon le type dâunion (TFTU) tient compte explicitement de la situation de couple, il doit ĂȘtre prĂ©fĂ©rĂ© au TFTM qui ne tient pas compte de ce critĂšre. Notre Ă©tude est conduite dans le cadre dâune analyse biographique tenant compte de covariables fixes ou dĂ©pendantes du temps. Les rĂ©sultats de lâanalyse nous permettent de dĂ©couvrir des caractĂ©ristiques intĂ©ressantes de la fĂ©conditĂ© roumaine, que nous utilisons pour illustrer la mĂ©thode. Dans la plupart des cas, ces caractĂ©ristiques sont robustes face Ă une re-spĂ©cification du modĂšle, notamment le passage de lâapproche basĂ©e sur lâĂąge Ă lâapproche tenant compte de la durĂ©e. Comme le nombre de rĂ©pondants Ă lâenquĂȘte EGG Ă un passage nâest âqueâ de lâordre de 6000 (moins les cas qui nâont pas pu ĂȘtre utilisĂ©s pour le prĂ©sent travail), il existe une fluctuation alĂ©atoire importante dans les donnĂ©es. Nous montrons toutefois quâun lissage par moyenne mobile Ă quelques termes seulement nous permet de surmonter cette difficultĂ©
Mutual Influences Between Motherhood and Educational Attainment in Selected Eastern European Countries
Women are spending an ever longer part of their lives enrolled in education programs. A crucial question in this context is how motherhood can be reconciled and correlated with continued investment in human capital. A related question concerns the role the socioeconomic context plays in the education/family life balance. In the present study we account for the finding that a pregnancy resulting in a first birth usually triggers the termination of formal education, and, conversely, that the completion of education is often followed by a first birth. We use a simultaneous-hazard two-equation model, controlling for common potential but unobserved determinants. Relative to work already done on these matters, our study extends previous investigations to Eastern European countries which have not been adequately researched so far. To strengthen comparison, we have additionally included two Western European countries. This allowed us to assess the importance of political context. The results show that despite efforts to offer women the possibility of choosing both motherhood and being enrolled in education, the educational policies which were introduced in some Eastern European countries after the fall of communist political regimes could not counteract the negative effects of the transition to a market economy. In these formerly communist countries, the continuation of studies in parallel with childbearing and family formation has become more difficult
Exploring the Attitudes of Philology Students Concerning the Use of Digital Resources. A Case Study
The present paper brings into discussion a very topical issue for students and teachers alike nowadays â the development of digital competence for students in the field of humanities. The research focuses on investigating possible changes in the attitudes of philology students towards the use of technology, as they are facing the reality of having to adapt their learning and/or their teaching to the new educational demands. Since the present educational context involved a quick change to online teaching and learning, the research focused on how the group of students in humanities have adapted to this setting, whether operating in this digitalised learning/teaching environment has any implications for their future career and whether the identified changes are connected to any lessons learnt both in their capacity of learners and teachers